Paola Tejada

Comportamiento de las muertes violentas en Bogotá, 1997-2003

OBJECTIVE To describe patterns of violent deaths in Bogotá between 1997 and 2003. DESIGN Descriptive methods for analyzing time series were applied to a group of 84 observations corresponding to mortality due to violent causes during seven years in Bogotá. Box-Jenkins methodology was used to generate forecasts for 12 months. Primary and secondary sources of information: Instituto de Medicina Legal Bogotá, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, Colombia. RESULTS For the 4 types of violent deaths analyzed (homicide, transit accident, suicide and others accidents), a decreasing tendency in the number of deaths during the analyzed period was observed, more evident in homicide and transit accidents. In all cases, except in the group of suicides, evidence of seasonality, with an increase in frequency of deaths in December, has been observed. The forecasting suggests persistence of decreasing trends, more apparent in the series of homicide and transit accidents. CONCLUSIONS In Bogotá, the mortality caused by violence has presented a decreasing trend. Stabilization of trend is observed in cases of suicides and accidental deaths. Further study is required to characterize and evaluate the contribution of different factors in this dynamic of violent death.