Paola Zaninotto

Trends in obesity among adults in England from 1993 to 2004 by age and social class and projections of prevalence to 2012

Background: This study aims to project the prevalence of adult obesity to 2012 by age groups and social class, by extrapolating the prevalence trends from 1993 to 2004. Repeated cross-sectional surveys were carried out of representative samples of the general population living in households in England conducted annually (1993 to 2004). Methods: Participants were classified as obese if their body mass index was over 30 kg/m2. Projections of obesity prevalence by 2012 were based on three scenarios: extrapolation of linear trend in prevalence from 1993 to 2004; acceleration (or slowing down) in rate of change based on the best fitting curve (power or exponential); and extrapolation of linear trend based on the six most recent years (1999 to 2004). Results: The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 1993 to 2004 from 13.6% to 24.0% among men and from 16.9% to 24.4% among women. If obesity prevalence continues to increase at the same rate, it is projected that the prevalence of obesity in 2012 will be 32.1% (95% CI 30.4 to 34.8) in men and 31.0% (95% CI 29.0 to 33.1) in women. The projected 2012 prevalence for adults in manual social classes is higher (43%) than for adults in non-manual social classes (35%). Conclusion: If recent trends in adult obesity continue, about a third of all adults (almost 13 million individuals) would be obese by 2012. Of these, around 43% are from manual social classes, thereby adding to the public health burden of obesity-related illnesses. This highlights the need for public health action to halt or reverse current trends and narrow social class inequalities in health.

Participation in socially-productive activities, reciprocity and wellbeing in later life: baseline results in England

ABSTRACT This paper examines whether participation in social activities is associated with higher levels of wellbeing among post-retirement age people in England, and, if so, whether these relationships are explained by the reciprocal nature of these activities. Cross-sectional analysis of relationships between social activities (including paid work, caring and volunteering) and wellbeing (quality of life, life satisfaction and depression) was conducted among participants of one wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) who were of state pension age or older. Participants in paid or voluntary work generally had more favourable wellbeing than those who did not participate in these activities. Caring was not associated with wellbeing, although female carers were less likely to be depressed than non-carers. Carers, volunteers and those in paid work who felt adequately rewarded for their activities had better wellbeing than those who were not participating in those activities, while those who did not feel rewarded did not differ from non-participants. These results point to the need to increase the rewards that older people receive from their productive activities, particularly in relation to caring work.

Time trends in childhood and adolescent obesity in England from 1995 to 2007 and projections of prevalence to 2015

Background The aim was to examine the 1995–2007 childhood and adolescent obesity trends and project prevalence to 2015 by age group and social class. Methods Participants were children aged 2–10 and adolescents aged 11–18 years from general population households in England studied using repeated cross-sectional surveys. Obesity was computed using international standards. Prevalence projections to 2015 were based on extrapolation of linear and non-linear trends. Results Obesity prevalence increased from 1995 to 2007 from 3.1% to 6.9% among boys, and 5.2% to 7.4% among girls. There are signs of a levelling off trend past 2004/5. Assuming a linear trend, the 2015 projected obesity prevalence is 10.1% (95% CI 7.5 to 12.6) in boys and 8.9% (5.8 to 12.1) in girls, and 8.0% (4.5, 11.5) in male and 9.7% (6.0, 13.3) in female adolescents. Projected prevalence in manual social classes is markedly higher than in non-manual classes [boys: 10.7% (6.6 to 14.9) vs 7.9% (3.7 to 12.1); girls: 11.2% (7.0 to 15.3) vs 5.4% (1.3 to 9.4); male adolescents: 10.0% (5.2 to 14.8) vs 6.7% (3.4 to 10.0); female adolescents: 10.4% (5.0 to 15.8) vs 8.3% (4.3 to 12.4)]. Conclusion If the trends in young obesity continue, the percentage and numbers of obese young people in England will increase considerably by 2015 and the existing obesity gap between manual and non-manual classes will widen further. This highlights the need for public health action to reverse recent trends and narrow social inequalities in health.

Age trajectories of quality of life among older adults: results from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PurposeTo explore age-trajectories of quality of life (QoL) and influences on them in a 4-year period among older adults living in England.MethodsData come from three waves (2002–2003 and 2006–2007) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a large panel study of 11,392 individuals aged 50 and over. We used Latent Growth Curve models and ageing-vector graphs to describe both individual differences and average population age-trajectories in QoL (measured by the CASP19 questionnaire).ResultsQoL at baseline was poorer for older than younger respondents, with the differences widening with age. QoL also declined more rapidly for older individuals. Gender, education, depression, limiting long-standing illness, difficulty with ADL-s, lack of wealth, non-employment, decreased number of friends and low positive support had a negative impact on QoL. Living with a partner had a positive effect on the QoL of men but not of women. The ageing-vector graphs revealed a clear gradient in age-trajectories of QoL for those in the best to the worst psychosocial, socioeconomic and health conditions.ConclusionsYounger old adults can be prepared for further ageing by increasing their network of friends and engaging with the wider community while they are able.

Undiagnosed diabetes - data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Aims  Diabetes UK estimates a quarter of UK cases of diabetes are undiagnosed; 750 000 people have undiagnosed diabetes in addition to 2.25 million with known diabetes, but research studies examining this are contradictory. The aim was to determine the prevalence of, and risk factors for, undiagnosed diabetes in the population of England aged > 50 years and to calculate the percentage of cases of undiagnosed diabetes.

Positive and negative exchanges in social relationships as predictors of depression: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging.

Objective: To investigate whether the impact of negative and positive social exchanges on depression depends on relationship type among late middle age and older adults. Method: Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging, baseline positive and negative exchanges with partners, children, other family and friends were linked to 2-year changes in depression on the eight-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Results: Positive and negative exchanges with partners and with children were independently associated with depression, adjusting for age, gender, wealth, and baseline depression. Negative but not positive exchanges with other family and with friends were associated with depression. The association between depression and positive/negative exchanges was weaker among the above 70s compared with those aged 50 to 70. Discussion: Negative and positive exchanges with partners and children appear equally salient for depression onset although negative exchanges with family and friends contribute to depression whereas positive exchanges do not.

Generalised and abdominal obesity and risk of diabetes, hypertension and hypertension-diabetes co-morbidity in England

OBJECTIVES To look at trends in generalised (body mass index (BMI) >or=30 kg m(-2)) and abdominal (waist circumference (WC) >102 cm in men, >88 cm in women) obesity among adults between 1993 and 2003, and to evaluate their association with diabetes, hypertension and hypertension-diabetes co-morbidity (HDC) in England. DESIGN Analyses of nationally representative cross-sectional population surveys, the Health Survey for England (HSE). SUBJECTS Non-institutionalised men and women aged >or=35 years. MEASUREMENTS Interviewer-administered questionnaire (sociodemographic information, risk factors, doctor-diagnosed diabetes), measurements of height and weight to calculate BMI. WC and blood pressure measurements were taken by trained nurses. RESULTS Generalised obesity increased among men from 15.8% in 1993 to 26.3% in 2003, and among women from 19.3% to 25.8%. Abdominal obesity also increased in both sexes (men: 26.2% in 1993 to 39.0% in 2003; women: 32.4% to 47.0%). In 1994, 1998 and 2003, generalised and abdominal obesity were independently associated with risk of hypertension, diabetes and HDC. The odds of diabetes associated with generalised obesity in 1994, 1998 and 2003 were 1.62, 2.26 and 2.62, respectively, in women and 1.24, 1.82 and 2.10, respectively, in men. Similar differences were observed for hypertension and HDC. Men and women with abdominal obesity also showed a higher risk for diabetes, hypertension and HDC than those with a normal WC. CONCLUSIONS If current trends in obesity continue then the risk of related morbidities may also increase. This will impact on cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality, with cost implications for the health service. Therefore there is an urgent need to control the epidemic of obesity.

Enjoyment of life and declining physical function at older ages: a longitudinal cohort study

Background: Positive affective well-being (i.e., feelings of happiness and enjoyment) has been associated with longer survival and reduced incidence of serious illness. Our objective was to discover whether enjoyment of life also predicted a reduced risk of functional impairment over an 8-year period in a large population sample. Methods: We carried out a prospective analysis involving 3199 men and women aged 60 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Enjoyment of life was assessed by questionnaire. Outcomes were impairment in 2 or more activities of daily living and changes in gait speed on a walking test. Covariates included sociodemographic factors, baseline health, depressive symptoms, impairment of mobility and health behaviours. Results: Two or more impaired activities of daily living developed among 4.4%, 11.7% and 16.8% of participants in the high, medium and low enjoyment-of-life tertiles, respectively. After adjustment for covariates, the odds of impaired activities of daily living developing were 1.83 (95% confidence interval 1.13–2.96) in the low compared with high tertile. Gait speed after 8 years was also related to baseline enjoyment of life after adjustment for gait speed and other covariates at baseline (p < 0.001). We obtained similar results when we limited analyses to participants younger than 70 years at baseline. Interpretation: This is an observational study, so causal conclusions cannot be drawn. But our results provide evidence that reduced enjoyment of life may be related to the future disability and mobility of older people.

A Cross-National Comparative Study of Blood Pressure and Hypertension Between English and Dutch South-Asian– and African-Origin Populations: The Role of National Context

BACKGROUND We compare patterns of blood pressure (BP) and prevalence of hypertension between white-Dutch and their South-Asian and African minority groups with their corresponding white-English and their South-Asian and African ethnic minority groups; and the contribution of physical activity, body sizes, and socioeconomic position (SEP); and the quality of BP treatment that may underlie differences in mean BP. METHODS Secondary analyses of population-based studies of 13,999 participants from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. RESULTS Compared with Dutch South-Asians, all English South-Asian men and women had lower BP and prevalence of hypertension except for systolic BP in English-Indian men. Among Africans, the systolic BP did not differ, but the diastolic BP levels were lower in English-Caribbean and English- (sub-Sahara) African men and women than in their Dutch-African counterparts. English-Caribbeans had a lower prevalence of hypertension than Dutch-Africans. Compared with white-Dutch, white-English men and women had higher systolic BP levels, but lower diastolic BP levels. There were no differences in the prevalence of hypertension between the white groups. Most differences remained unchanged after adjustment for SEP, lifestyle, and body sizes in all ethnic groups. BP control rates were substantially lower among Dutch-African and Dutch South-Asian hypertensives than among their English counterparts (except Indians). CONCLUSIONS We found marked variations in BP and hypertension prevalence between comparable ethnic groups in England and the Netherlands. Poor BP control among Dutch South-Asians and Africans contributed to their disadvantage of the relatively high BP levels.

Comparison of methods for modelling a count outcome with excess zeros: application to Activities of Daily Living (ADL-s)

Background Count outcomes are commonly encountered in many epidemiology applications, and are often characterised by a large proportion of zeros. Although linear or logistic regression models have often been used to analyse count outcomes, the resulting estimates are likely to be inefficient, inconsistent or biased. Methods Data were taken from the first wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). The main outcome measure is difficulty (ranging from 0 to 6) with ‘Activities of Daily Living (ADL-s)’, such as dressing, walking across a room, bathing, eating, getting in and out of bed and using the toilet. Four regression models specifically developed for count outcomes were fitted to the data: Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB). The models were compared using the Likelihood Ratio (LR) test of overdispersion, the Vuong test and graphical methods. Results The plots of predictions showed that overall, the ZINB model fit best. Although the ZINB and the ZIP models showed similar fit, the LR test provided strong evidence that the ZINB had improved fit over the ZIP. Increasing difficulties with ADL-s were associated with fair/poor self-reported health, limiting longstanding illness and physical inactivity. The probability of not having any difficulty with ADL-s decreases with a limiting longstanding illness, increasing age, no education, fair/poor self-reported health and with not living with a partner. Conclusion Models specifically developed for count outcomes with excess zeros such as ZINB can provide better insights into the investigation of the factors associated with the difficulties with ADL-s.