Paolo Franchin

Probabilistic Assessment of Civil Infrastructure Resilience to Earthquakes

The large losses occurred in the past due to earthquakes, even in highly developed countries, as well as the ensuing prolonged inactivity of the stricken societies, imparted momentum to research into regional seismic impact and community resilience to earthquakes. Need for comprehensive and consistent modeling is apparent, and this work presents a contribution in this direction. The extension of a recently developed civil infrastructure simulation framework to the evaluation of resilience, as well as the introduction of a new infrastructure network-based resilience metric represent the novelties of the article and allow one to explore the effect that sources of uncertainty and key vulnerability factors have on the probability distribution of resilience.

On the role of road networks in reducing human losses after earthquakes

A road-network reliability analysis for a scenario seismic event is performed for a region of southern Italy characterised by a large number of small to medium municipalities quite close to each other and served by a dense network of roads. Among the many functions of the road network, whose links may fail after an earthquake due to the collapse of the bridges within them, the one selected for the present study is that of allowing rescue operations to be carried out at the sites of collapsed schools. For this to be possible, connection must be maintained between schools that survived, rescue centres and hospitals. Required elements for the study are the fragility curves of the bridges, the schools, the hospitals and the rescue centres. Output of the study is the expected value of the fraction of the total population in the area that is in need of assistance and cannot be hospitalised due to either failure of the network or other vulnerable components.

Models for Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of Power Networks: Comparative Assessment

Electric power networks are spatially distributed systems, subject to different magnitude and recurrence of earthquakes, that play a fundamental role in the well-being and safety of communities. Therefore, identification of critical components is of paramount importance in retrofit prioritization. This article presents a comparison of five seismic performance assessment models (M1 to M5) of increasing complexity. The first two models (M1 and M2) approach the problem from a connectivity perspective, whereas the last three (M3 to M5) consider also power flow analysis. To illustrate the utility of the five models, the well-known IEEE-118 test case, assumed to be located in the central United States, is considered. Performances of the five models are compared using both system-level and component-level measures. Spearman rank correlation ρ is computed between results of each model. Highest ρ values, at both system- and component-level, are obtained, as expected, between M1 and M2, and within models M3 to M5. The ρ values between component-level measures are relatively high across all models, indicating that simpler ones (M1 and M2) are appropriate for vulnerability assessment and retrofit prioritization. The complex flow-based models (M3 to M5) are suitable if actual performance of the systems is desired, as it is the case when the power network is considered within a larger set of interconnected infrastructural systems.

Allowing traffic over mainshock-damaged bridges

A criterion is proposed for deciding whether, after a damaging mainshock, a bridge can still be open for either emergency or ordinary traffic. The criterion is based on the comparison between the collapse risk of the mainshock-damaged structure and the pre-mainshock risk of the intact structure. The approach requires fragilities for multiple damage states for the intact structure, and transition probabilities from these states to collapse for the damaged structure. The aftershock risk decreases with time, hence a decision for reopening might have to wait until the risk level goes down to an acceptable value. A realistic application demonstrates the approach.

Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete structures using a response surface approach

A statistical approach for time-variant system-reliability problems has been developed and investigated in this study. The basic proposal is to use a response surface, characterised by a statistical model of the mixed type, to represent the capacity part in an analytical limit state function. The fragility of the system is then calculated by SORM analysis, with the constructed empirical limit state function as input. The developed method has been applied to a reinforced concrete frame: investigations have been carried out to check the stability and accuracy of the suggested procedure.

Seismic Vulnerability of the Italian Roadway Bridge Stock

This study focuses on the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of the Italian roadway bridge stock, within the framework of a Civil Protection sponsored project. A comprehensive database of existing bridges (17,000 bridges with different level of knowledge) was implemented. At the core of the study stands a procedure for automatically carrying out state-of-the-art analytical evaluation of fragility curves for two performance levels—damage and collapse—on an individual bridge basis. A WebGIS was developed to handle data and results. The main outputs are maps of bridge seismic risk (from the fragilities and the hazard maps) at the national level and real-time scenario damage-probability maps (from the fragilities and the scenario shake maps). In the latter case, the WebGIS also performs network analysis to identify routes to be followed by rescue teams. Consistency of the fragility derivation over the entire bridge stock is regarded as a major advantage of the adopted approach.

A computational framework for systemic seismic risk analysis of civil infrastructural systems

This chapter presents the general framework for systemic analysis of a set of interconnected civil infrastructural systems described in this book. While the relevant following chapters provide details on specific aspects of distributed seismic hazard (Chap. 3), vulnerability of components (the companion book), functional model of each system and their interactions (Chap. 5), and socio-economic impact evaluation (Chap. 4), this chapter focuses mainly on how the overall model has been developed according to the object-oriented paradigm, and on the way uncertainty in all factors is modelled.

Performance-based seismic design of integral abutment bridges

Integral abutment bridges (IAB) are experiencing increasing diffusion in the short to mid-range lengths, where they offer some advantages over traditional girder bridges with non-monolithic connection at the abutments. One challenging problem with their analysis and design is that consideration of the interaction between foundation soil, structure and backfill is unavoidable, also for the deck design. Further, the end of the construction is only one of the conditions that need to be verified during design. Cyclic deformations, such as those occurring during ground shaking, typically lead to an increase in stresses in the abutments and connections, due to progressive compaction (ratcheting) of the backfill soil. This problem is magnified when the bridge is comprised between two embankments, whose response may amplify the input motion and drive the deformation of the bridge. Performance-based design aims at superseding current design procedures by explicitly checking that the target performances set out are achieved, and not overly exceeded. Such a design paradigm naturally calls, on the one hand, for improved accuracy in response determination and more refined analyses, and, on the other, for taking into account the uncertainties entering into the problem by means of an explicitly probabilistic approach. With this objective in mind, the paper presents an inelastic dynamic model for the seismic analysis and design of IABs. The model, that features a balanced compromise between the setup and evaluation effort on one hand, and accuracy on the other, has been developed for implementation in typical commercial analysis packages. It builds on 1D site-response analysis and on inelastic Winkler-like modeling, to reproduce the main physical aspects of the seismic response of IABs. One example application to a highway overpass in Italy illustrates the model and the relevance of a fully probabilistic approach to performance-based design. The application offers also important insight into the choice of an efficient intensity measure for this type of structure.

Increased accuracy of vector-IM-based seismic risk assessment?

The vector-valued ground motion intensity measure (IM) consisting of spectral acceleration at two different periods is considered for seismic risk assessment of structures. The first component of the IM is the spectral acceleration at the first-mode structural period T 1. The second period is selected to increase efficiency in the estimation of seismic risk (i.e., minimizing dispersion). A method to assess vector structural fragility using a scalar global measure of structural performance is proposed. With reference to an example RC frame structure, the accuracy of prediction of the seismic risk using the considered vector IM vs. a conventional scalar IM is presented. In both cases, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (scalar and vector) is carried out by means of a subset simulation approach that employs a stochastic model of ground motion. Results show that an effective choice of the second period T2 leads to an estimate of the seismic risk close to that obtained employing the scalar IM consisting of Sa(T1) only, while reducing the associated dispersion in the estimate. For the examined example structure, however, the reduction is negligible in light of the effort required for switching from a scalar to a vector IM.

Issues in the Upgrade of Italian Highway Structures

The last 15 years have seen fundamental advances in both the definition of the hazard and on the criteria in codified seismic design, creating a situation whereby even relatively modern constructions may represent an unchecked risk. This article deals with a case of particular relevance, i.e., the seismic risk of bridges and viaducts on the Italian highway network. After a brief outline of the present state of the network, the article concentrates on the solutions adopted in the upgrading, for increasing both the traffic and the seismic capacities, through the illustration of two case studies. The second, main part of the article deals in more detail with one of the case studies, examining alternative design options and the corresponding analytical aspects. Finally, the opportunity is taken to investigate the relevance of two aspects not commonly taken into account in design practice, i.e., differential support motion and soil-structure interaction.