Paolo Frattini

Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts.

Fragmentation in the Val Pola rock avalanche, Italian Alps

[1] Grain size data from the deposit of the 1987 Val Pola rock avalanche (central Italian Alps) are compared with data concerning rock avalanching, rock fragmentation, and comminution. The Weibull distribution fits a small part of the entire particle-size distribution of debris samples, with a mean value of the curve shape factor of 0.54 ± 0.28. This is typical of multiple comminution, or fragmentation with much shearing. A fractal distribution fits over a greater size range. Computed fractal dimensions range between 1.3 and 3.2 within the deposit, with average values of about 2.6–2.7. These values cover the range between the theoretical values of the plane-of-weakness model (1.97) and the pillar-of-strength model (2.84) and are close to the theoretical value for the constrained comminution model (2.58). These suggest that both texturally mature and immature deposits are present and that more than a single comminution process acted during the rock avalanche motion. Variation of the grain size distribution within the deposit and grain size segregation show as trends in the fractal dimension and arise from variation in the fragmentation process. A variety of different physical and empirical laws suggest that 1–30% of the energy expended in the rock avalanche was consumed in fragmentation.

Monitoring the hydrologic behaviour of a mountain slope via time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography

Catchment and hillslope hydrology is a major research area in geoscience and the understanding of its underlying processes is still poor. Direct investigation of steep hillslopes via drilling is often infeasible. In this paper, we present the results of non-invasive time-lapse monitoring of a controlled infiltration test at a site in the Italian Central Alps. The hillslope considered is steep (30–35°), covered with grass and a soil layer 1–1.5 m thick above a variably fractured metamorphic bedrock. The key hydrologic question is whether rainfall infiltrates mainly into the underlying fractured bedrock, thus recharging a deeper hydraulic system, or flows in the soil layer as interflow towards the stream channel a few hundred metres downhill. In order to respond to this question, we applied 2200 mm of artificial rain on a 2 m × 2 m slope box over about 18 hours. We estimated the effective infiltration by subtracting the measured runoff (7% of total). Due to the limited irrigation time and the climate conditions, the evapotranspiration was considered as negligible. The soil moisture variation and the underlying bedrock were monitored via a combination of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), TDR probes and tensiometers. A small-scale 3D cross-hole ERT experiment was performed using 2 m deep boreholes purposely drilled and completed with electrodes in the irrigated plot. A larger scale (35 m long) 2D surface ERT survey was also continuously acquired across the irrigated area. Monitoring continued up to 10 days after the experiment. As a result, we observed a very fast vertical infiltration through the soil cover, also favoured by preferential flow patterns, immediately followed by infiltration into the fractured bedrock. The surface layer showed a fast recovery of initial moisture condition nearly completed in the first 12 hours after the end of irrigation. The lateral transmission of infiltrating water and runoff were negligible as compared to the vertical infiltration. These experiment results confirm that the fractured bedrock has a key role in controlling the fast hydrological dynamics of the small catchment system under study. We concluded that deep water circulation is the key pathway to hillslope processes at this site.important

Modelling probability of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a changing climate, Otta, Central Norway

We analyse slope stability conditions for shallow landslides under an extreme precipitation regime with regard to present and future scenarios, in order to first study the effect of changes in precipitation on stability conditions, considering uncertainty in the model parameters, and second to evaluate which factors contribute the most to model output and uncertainty. We used a coupled hydrological-stability model to study the hydrological control on shallow landslides in different precipitation regimes, with reference to the case study of Otta, located in central east Norway. We included a wide range of climatic settings, taking intensity, duration of the extreme events and two different antecedent precipitation conditions into account. Eleven future scenarios were determined using results of down-scaled meteorological models. Considering the uncertainty in the soil parameters, we used the Monte Carlo approach and probability of failure resulting from 5,000 trials was calculated for each precipitation scenario. In unstable areas the probabilities of failure at present and future conditions were compared using a bootstrapping method. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to understand how variations in input parameters influence the output of the selected model. The results show changes in the modelled stability conditions only if the effect of antecedent precipitation is not taken into account. The uncertainties in the predicted extreme precipitation events, soil parameters, and antecedent precipitation conditions do not allow any accurate estimation of changes in stability conditions for shallow landslides.

Damage to Buildings in Large Slope Rock Instabilities Monitored with the PSInSAR™ Technique

The slow movement of active deep-seated slope gravitational deformations (DSGSDs) and deep-seated rockslides can cause damage to structures and infrastructures. We use Permanent Scatterers Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (PSInSAR™) displacement rate data for the analysis of DSGSD/rockslide activity and kinematics and for the analysis of damage to buildings. We surveyed the degree of damage to buildings directly in the field, and we tried to correlate it with the superficial displacement rate obtained by the PSInSAR™ technique at seven sites. Overall, we observe that the degree of damage increases with increasing displacement rate, but this trend shows a large dispersion that can be due to different causes, including: the uncertainty in the attribution of the degree of damage for buildings presenting wall coatings; the complexity of the deformation for large phenomena with different materials and subjected to differential behavior within the displaced mass; the absence of differential superficial movements in buildings, due to the large size of the investigated phenomena; and the different types of buildings and their position along the slope or relative to landslide portions.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping at National Scale: The Italian Case Study

Landslide susceptibility maps are key tools for land use planning, management and risk mitigation. The Landslide susceptibility map of Italy, scale 1:1,000,000 is being realized by using the Italian Landslide Inventory – Progetto IFFI and a set of contributing factors, such as surface parameters derived from 20 to20 m DEM, lithological map obtained from the geological map of Italy 1:500,000, and land use map (Corine Land Cover 2000). These databases have been subjected to a quality analysis with the aim of assessing the completeness, homogeneity and reliability of data, and identifying representative areas which may be used as training and test areas for the implementation of landslide susceptibility models. In order to implement the models, physiographic domains of homogeneous geology and geomorphology have been identified, and landslides have been divided into three main classes in order to take into account specific sets of conditioning factors: (a) rockfalls and rock-avalanches; (b) slow mass movements, (c) debris flows. The modelling tests performed with different techniques (Discriminant Anaysis, Logistic Regression, Bayesian Tree Random Forest) provided good results, once applied with the appropriate selection of training and validations sets and with a significant number of statistical units.

Landslide hazard, monitoring and conservation strategy for the safeguard of Vardzia Byzantine monastery complex, Georgia

This paper reports preliminary results of a feasibility project developed in cooperation with National Agency for Cultural Heritage Preservation of Georgia, and aimed at envisaging the stability conditions of the Vardzia monastery slope (rupestrian city cave in the south-western Georgia). The aim is the implementation of a low-impact monitoring system together with long-term mitigation/conservation policies. A field analysis was conducted to reconstruct geometry of the rocky cliff, characteristics of discontinuities, main failure modes, and volume of potential unstable blocks and geomechanical parameters. Instability processes are the combination of causative factors such as the following: lithology, frequency and orientation of discontinuities, slope orientation, physical and mechanical characteristics of slope-forming materials, and morphological and hydrological boundary conditions. The combined adoption of different survey techniques (e.g., 3D laser scanner, ground-based radar interferometry) could be the best solution in the interdisciplinary field of cultural heritage preservation policies. The collected data will be the basis for future activities to be completed in collaboration with local authorities for a complete hazard and risk characterization for the monastery site and the development of an early warning system to allow safe exploitation for touristic activities and for historical site preservation.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Apulian Southern Apennine: heuristic vs. statistical methods

In this paper, a bivariate-heuristic model (modified Stevenson’s method) and two multivariate statistical procedures (discriminant analysis and logistic regression) were used in order to assess and map landslide susceptibility in the north-western side of Daunia region (Apulia, Southern Italy). The whole Daunia region is characterized by complex and composite landslides, which are located on clayey slopes, near urban centers, affecting structures and infrastructures. The high predisposition to landsliding of the Daunia hillslopes is related to the very poor strength properties of clayey formations. The comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility using different methods, on the same test site and with the same inventory map allowed understanding the dependence of the results from the dataset and the capability of models under different levels of use, from expert to simple operator. By comparing the performance of the three models through the success rate curves, it emerges that the simple modified Stevenson’s method produces reliable outcomes, comparable with those deriving from more complex multivariate statistical models. This result is related to the characteristics of clayey slopes, in which the landslide occurrence is so much controlled by the poor strength properties of the clayey formations that the multivariate analysis of a large set of morphometric, geological and land-use variables results to be somehow superfluous. This suggests that, for clayey slopes, a simple, easy-to-manage bivariate-heuristic model based on expert opinion can be used with reliable results.

Formation, Characterisation and Modeling of the Val Pola Rock-Avalanche Dam (Italy)

Landslide dams can be originated by very different phenomena, each characterized by specific types of movement, which control the final characteristics of the material. We present the case study of the Val Pola landslide dam (Central Italian Alps, Lombardy), formed in 1987 by al large rock avalanche. We describe the main landslide features as well as those of its accumulation. Data from laboratory and in situ tests performed on the landslide deposits are reported and discussed. The collected data are used to describe the internal structure of the accumulation, the behaviour of the landslide dam during the lake infilling and the overtopping phase. These data are fundamental to interpret the mechanisms of put in place of the accumulation and the theories proposed to explain long runout of rock avalanches. We compare the grain size distributions of the deposits and the physical-mechanical properties from different landslide sectors. We stress the relevance of a detailed characterization of the internal structure of landslide dams to perform correct seepage modelling and to perform reliable predictions of landslide dam stability and breaching (geometry, water and sediment discharge, duration). Point-like characterization, often controlled by local conditions and presence of small outcrops, can be misleading both in terms of the evaluation of the stability of the dam and in the understanding of the processes. We used several published relationships and approaches for the assessment of the peak discharge, breaching time and geometry. We confirm the large variability of the results and the difficulties in using collected data for reliable predictions.

Key Issues in Rock Fall Modeling, Hazard and Risk Assessment for Rockfall Protection

Rockfalls pose a significant threat to life and property, thus rockfall protection is a major issue in areas exposed to severe rockfall hazard. Rockfall protection approaches include quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment, as well as the design of structural countermeasures. These require a sound and robust quantification of 3D rockfall trajectories, distribution and intensity of impacts, and magnitude and variability of involved dynamic quantities. Providing highly reliable modeling inputs to rockfall protection remains a difficult task, because of the complexity and intrinsic stochastic nature of rockfall physics and the uncertainty of all the relevant parameters. However, significant advances in rockfall analysis have been made in the last decade, and modern 3D rockfall modeling techniques now provide effective tools to support rockfall protection activities, even in difficult design conditions. Nevertheless, their use can still be complex and raises a series of difficult steps both in the modeling and the analysis of the results. In this paper, we provide an overview of rockfall analysis aspects relevant to rockfall protection, as well as examples of applications of modern 3D rockfall runout modeling techniques in rockfall hazard and risk assessment, and countermeasure selection, design and optimization.