Paras Mandal

A review of wind power and wind speed forecasting methods with different time horizons

In recent years, environmental considerations have prompted the use of wind power as a renewable energy resource. However, the biggest challenge in integrating wind power into the electric grid is its intermittency. One approach to deal with wind intermittency is forecasting future values of wind power production. Thus, several wind power or wind speed forecasting methods have been reported in the literature over the past few years. This paper provides insight on the foremost forecasting techniques, associated with wind power and speed, based on numeric weather prediction (NWP), statistical approaches, artificial neural network (ANN) and hybrid techniques over different time-scales. An overview of comparative analysis of various available forecasting techniques is discussed as well. In addition, this paper further gives emphasis on the major challenges and problems associated with wind power prediction.

A Novel Approach to Forecast Electricity Price for PJM Using Neural Network and Similar Days Method

Price forecasting in competitive electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk, and it also plays a key role in the economic optimization of the electric energy industry. This paper explores a technique of artificial neural network (ANN) model based on similar days (SD) method in order to forecast day-ahead electricity price in the PJM market. To demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model, publicly available data acquired from the PJM Interconnection were used for training and testing the ANN. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, and historical price factors, are discussed. Comparison of forecasting performance of the proposed ANN model with that of forecasts obtained from similar days method is presented. Daily and weekly mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of reasonably small value and forecast mean square error (FMSE) of less than 7

Next day load curve forecasting using hybrid correction method

/MWh were obtained for the PJM data, which has correlation coefficient of determination of 0.6744 between load and electricity price. Simulation results show that the proposed ANN model based on similar days method is capable of forecasting locational marginal price (LMP) in the PJM market efficiently and accurately.

A novel hybrid approach using wavelet, firefly algorithm, and fuzzy ARTMAP for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

This work presents an approach for short-term load forecast problem, based on hybrid correction method. Conventional artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting techniques have limitations especially when weather changes are seasonal. Hence, we propose a load correction method by using a fuzzy logic approach in which a fuzzy logic, based on similar days, corrects the neural network output to obtain the next day forecasted load. An Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of similar days. The load correction method for the generation of new similar days is also proposed. The neural network has an advantage of dealing with the nonlinear parts of the forecasted load curves, whereas, the fuzzy rules are constructed based on the expert knowledge. Therefore, by combining these two methods, the test results show that the proposed forecasting method could provide a considerable improvement of the forecasting accuracy especially as it shows how to reduce neural network forecast error over the test period by 23% through the application of a fuzzy logic correction. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual load data of the Okinawa Electric Power Company in Japan.

Forecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using Wavelet Transform and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

This paper presents a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm utilizing a data filtering technique based on wavelet transform (WT), an optimization technique based on firefly (FF) algorithm, and a soft computing model based on fuzzy ARTMAP (FA) network in order to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in the Ontario market. A comprehensive comparative analysis with other soft computing and hybrid models shows a significant improvement in forecast error by more than 40% for daily and weekly price forecasts, through the application of a proposed hybrid WT+FF+FA model. Furthermore, low values obtained for the forecast mean square error (FMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) indicate high degree of accuracy of the proposed model. Robustness of the proposed hybrid intelligent model is measured by using the statistical index (error variance). In addition, the good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the proposed hybrid WT+FF+FA model are also evaluated using the PJM market data.

A Hybrid Intelligent Model for Deterministic and Quantile Regression Approach for Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting

Abstract With increased penetration of solar as a variable energy resource (VER), solar photovoltaic (PV) power production is rapidly increasing into large-scale power industries. Since power output of PV systems depends critically on the weather, unexpected variations of their power output may increase the operating costs of the power system. Moreover, a major barrier in integrating this VER into the grid is its unpredictability, since steady output cannot be guaranteed at any particular time. This biases power utilities against using PV power since the planning and overall balancing of the grid becomes very challenging. Developing a reliable algorithm that can minimize the errors associated with forecasting the near future PV power generation is extremely beneficial for efficiently integrating VER into the grid. PV power forecasting can play a key role in tackling these challenges. This paper presents one-hour-ahead power output forecasting of a PV system using a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques by incorporating the interactions of PV system with solar radiation and temperature data. In the proposed method, the WT is applied to have a significant impact on ill-behaved PV power time-series data, and AI techniques capture the nonlinear PV fluctuation in a better way.

Several-hours-ahead electricity price and load forecasting using neural networks

With rapid increase in wind power penetration into the power grid, wind power forecasting is becoming increasingly important to power system operators and electricity market participants. The majority of the wind forecasting tools available in the literature provide deterministic prediction, but given the variability and uncertainty of wind, such predictions limit the use of the existing tools for decision-making under uncertain conditions. As a result, probabilistic forecasting, which provides information on uncertainty associated with wind power forecasting, is gaining increased attention. This paper presents a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm for deterministic wind power forecasting that utilizes a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and fuzzy ARTMAP (FA) network, which is optimized by using firefly (FF) optimization algorithm. In addition, support vector machine (SVM) classifier is used to minimize the wind power forecast error obtained from WT+FA+FF. The paper also presents a probabilistic wind power forecasting algorithm using quantile regression method. It uses the wind power forecast results obtained from the proposed hybrid deterministic WT+FA+FF+SVM model to evaluate the probabilistic forecasting performance. The performance of the proposed forecasting model is assessed utilizing wind power data from the Cedar Creek wind farm in Colorado.

An overview of forecasting problems and techniques in power systems

In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several-hours-ahead electricity price and load forecasting using artificial intelligence method, such as neural network model, which uses publicly available data from NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of similar days. Two different ANN models, one for several-hours-ahead load forecasting and another for several-hours-ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The forecasted price and load from the neural network is obtained by adding a correction to the selected similar days, and the correction is obtained from the neural network. MAPE results show that several-hours-ahead electricity price and load in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy.

An Effort to Optimize Similar Days Parameters for ANN-Based Electricity Price Forecasting

This paper provides an overview of forecasting problems and techniques in power system. Available forecasting techniques have been reviewed with the focus on data mining for wind power prediction. This paper also discusses forecasting issues associated with electricity price and load forecasting.

A Novel Hybrid Approach Based on Wavelet Transform and Fuzzy ARTMAP Networks for Predicting Wind Farm Power Production

This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of similar days (SD) parameters to increase the accuracy of artificial neural network (ANN) and SD-based short-term price forecasting. Work presented in this paper is an extended version of previous works done by the authors to integrate ANN and SD method for predicting electricity price. The focus here is on sensitivity analysis of SD parameters while keeping the parameters same for ANN to forecast hourly electricity prices in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) (regional transmission organization in northeast America) electricity market. Several cases are simulated by choosing (a) two, (b) three, (c) four, and (d) five SD parameters to calculate the norm. In addition, sensitivity analysis has been carried out by changing the time framework of SD (d = 15, 30, 45, 60) and the number of selected similar price days (N = 5, 10). From sensitivity analysis, it is identified that the optimized mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is obtained using case-c with d = 30 and N = 10. MAPE of reasonably small value, along with forecast mean square error and mean absolute error of around 2