Pascaline Le Gouar

Roles of survival and dispersal in reintroduction success of Griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus).

The success of reintroduction programs greatly depends on the amount of mortality and dispersal of the released individuals. Although local environmental pressures are likely to play an important role in these processes, they have rarely been investigated because of the lack of spatial replicates of reintroduction. In the present study, we analyzed a 25-year data set encompassing 272 individuals released in five reintroduction programs of Griffon Vultures (Gyps fulvus) in France to examine the respective roles of survival and dispersal in program successes and failures. We use recent developments in multi-strata capture-recapture models to take into account tag loss in survival estimates and to consider and estimate dispersal among release areas. We also examined the effects of sex, age, time, area, and release status on survival, and we tested whether dispersal patterns among release areas were consistent with habitat selection theories. Results indicated that the survival of released adults was reduced during the first year after release, with no difference between sexes. Taking into account local observations only, we found that early survival rates varied across sites. However when we distinguished dispersal from mortality, early survival rates became equal across release sites. It thus appears that among reintroduction programs difference in failure and success was due to differential dispersal among release sites. We revealed asymmetrical patterns of dispersal due to conspecific attraction: dispersers selected the closest and the largest population. We showed that mortality can be homogeneous from one program to another while, on the contrary, dispersal is highly dependent on the matrix of established populations. Dispersal behavior is thus of major interest for metapopulation restoration and should be taken into account in planning reintroduction designs.

Post-Release Dispersal in Animal Translocations: Social Attraction and the “Vacuum Effect”

Animal translocations are human-induced colonizations that can represent opportunities to contribute to the knowledge on the behavioral and demographic processes involved in the establishment of animal populations. Habitat selection behaviors, such as social cueing, have strong implications on dispersal and affect the establishment success of translocations. Using modeling simulations with a two-population network model (a translocated population and a remnant population), we investigated the consequences of four habitat selection strategies on post-translocation establishment probabilities in short- and long-lived species. Two dispersal strategies using social cues (conspecific attraction and habitat copying) were compared to random and quality-based strategies. We measured the sensitivity of local extinctions to dispersal strategies, life cycles, release frequencies, remnant population and release group sizes, the proportion of breeders and the connectivity between populations. Our results indicate that social behaviors can compromise establishment as a result of post-release dispersal, particularly in long-lived species. This behavioral mechanism, the “vacuum effect”, arises from increased emigration in populations that are small relative to neighboring populations, reducing their rate of population growth. The vacuum effect can drive small remnant populations to extinction when a translocated group is large. In addition, the magnitude of the vacuum effect varies non-linearly with connectivity. The vacuum effect represents a novel form of the behaviorally mediated Allee effect that can cause unexpected establishment failures or population extinctions in response to social cueing. Accounting for establishment probabilities as a conditional step to the persistence of populations would improve the accuracy of predicting the fates of translocated or natural (meta)populations.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances.

Which temporal resolution to consider when investigating the impact of climatic data on population dynamics? The case of the lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros)

Climatic variables are often considered when studying environmental impacts on population dynamics of terrestrial species. However, the temporal resolution considered varies depending on studies, even among studies of the same taxa. Most studies interested in climatic impacts on populations tend to average climatic data across timeframes covering life cycle periods of the organism in question or longer, even though most climatic databases provide at least a monthly resolution. We explored the impact of climatic variables on lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros) demography based on count data collected at 94 maternity colonies from 2000 to 2014 in Britanny, France. Meteorological data were considered using different time resolutions (month, life cycle period and year) to investigate their adequacy. Model averaging was used to detect significant predictors for each temporal resolution. Our results show that the finest temporal resolution, e.g. month, was more informative than coarser ones. Precipitation predictors were particularly decisive, with a negative impact on colony sizes when rainfall occurred in October, and a positive impact for June precipitations. Fecundity was influenced by April weather. This highlights the strong impact of climatic conditions during crucial but short time periods on the population dynamics of bats. We demonstrate the importance of choosing an appropriate time resolution and suggest that analogous studies should consider fine-scale temporal resolution (e.g. month) to better grasp the relationship between population dynamics and climatic conditions.

Using demographic characteristics of populations to detect spatial fragmentation following suspected ebola outbreaks in great apes

OBJECTIVES Demographic crashes due to emerging diseases can contribute to population fragmentation and increase extinction risk of small populations. Ebola outbreaks in 2002-2004 are suspected to have caused a decline of more than 80% in some Western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations. We investigated whether demographic indicators of this event allowed for the detection of spatial fragmentation in gorilla populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS We collected demographic data from two neighbouring populations: the Lokoué population, suspected to have been affected by an Ebola outbreak (followed from 2001 to 2014), and the Romani population, of unknown demographic status before Ebola outbreaks (followed from 2005 to 2014). RESULTS Ten years after the outbreak, the Lokoué population is slowly recovering and the short-term demographic indicators of a population crash were no longer detectable. The Lokoué population has not experienced any additional demographic perturbation over the past decade. The Romani population did not show any of the demographic indicators of a population crash over the past decade. Its demographic structure remained similar to that of unaffected populations. DISCUSSION Our results highlighted that the Ebola disease could contribute to fragmentation of gorilla populations due to the spatially heterogeneous impact of its outbreaks. The demographic structure of populations (i.e., age-sex and group structure) can be useful indicators of a possible occurrence of recent Ebola outbreaks in populations without known history, and may be more broadly used in other emerging disease/species systems. Longitudinal data are critical to our understanding of the impact of emerging diseases on wild populations and their conservation.

Low evidence for extra-pair fertilizations in two reintroduced populations of Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus)

The Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus) is considered to be socially monogamous. However, extra-pair fertilizations are suspected due to observations of extra-pair copulations in some populations. We performed parentage studies based on ten polymorphic microsatellite markers in two reintroduced colonies of Griffon Vulture. Out of 40 genotyped chicks, we found eight chicks whose genotypes mismatched those of their observed parents. Two could be explained by the occurrence of a null allele at one locus. The six remaining mismatches detected relied on mismatches at one locus, and they were not detected when we increased the potential genotyping error rate. We thus conclude that the Griffon Vulture is genetically monogamous, at least in low-density populations.ZusammenfassungEs wird angenommen, dass Gänsegeier (Gyps fulvus) monogam leben. Da aber außerpartnerschaftliche Kopulationen beobachtet wurden, ist anzunehmen, dass es auch Fremdvaterschaften gibt. Wir untersuchten Verwandtschaft anhand von zehn polymorphen Mikrosatellitenmarkern in zwei wiedereingebürgerten Gänsegeierkolonien. Von 40 genotypisch untersuchten Küken passten acht nicht zu ihren sozialen Eltern. Zwei dieser Abweichungen ließen sich auf Nullallele an einem Lokus zurückführen. Die sechs Übrigen kamen durch eine Abweichung an einem Lokus zustande und wurden nicht mehr entdeckt, als wir den Fehlerspielraum des genetischen Typisierung erhöhten. Wir schließen daraus, dass Gänsegeier zumindest in wenig dichten Kolonien genetisch monogam sind.