Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo

Social Supply and the Evaluation of Food Policies

This study develops a model of social supply, based on the hypothesis that society desires that efficient producers remain in business even if their enterprise is too small to withstand the losses caused by extreme price declines. The analysis shows that this concept can be linked to the desire of society of maintaining small producers income above a minimum level and is consistent with a well-behaved social welfare function. The study further argues that both social demand and social supply functions may be useful for evaluating policies and projects with socially relevant effects. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced and conceptually complex but they can be applied with ease with the wide availability of specialized software. The results of a pilot exercise conducted in Campeche suggest that even though global estimates for many costs have been used (such as sea wall construction) the magnitudes are so large that the results seem to be robust and are unlikely to alter dramatically with more refined data. In general options that are modular, build capacity and flexibility are found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation options. It also suggests that studies at this scale are best conducted ahead of project design – even at the programmatic level - to guide the identification of suitable adaptation approaches.

Financing Technology: An Assessment of Theory and Practice

Financing technology poses a special challenge to economic institutions for several reasons. First, the uncertainty surrounding all the investment decisions is particularly acute and pervasive in the case of R&D, as well as developing and testing process and product innovation. Second, while the banks appear to have an important role to play, for many types of innovative businesses, they cannot be the sole source of financing. Third, technology ventures appear to face a basic trade off between profit and growth, which may be exacerbated by a difficult relationship with a credit institution. The paper examines these questions both theoretically and empirically, focusing on the US market as the leading financial center capable of providing imaginative solutions and on the Arab countries as a case study of developing economies facing a financial and institutional constraints.

Can Portfolio Diversification Increase Systemic Risk? Evidence from the U.S and European Mutual Funds Market

This paper tests the hypothesis that portfolio diversification can increase the threat of systemic financial risk. The paper provides first a theoretical rationale for the possibility that systemic risk may be increased by the proliferation of financial instruments that lead operators to hold increasingly similar portfolios. Secondly, the paper tests the hypothesis that diversification may result in increasing systematic risk, by analyzing the portfolio dynamics of some of the major world open funds.

Science and Technology in World Agriculture: Narratives and Discourses

The narratives characterizing the current debate on world agricultural research tend to be part of a discourse that rationalizes past experience and future tendencies along the lines of extreme recounts of successes and failures. Stories of agricultural development and of accomplishments of research and science in agriculture tend to be organized according with either a conservative or a radical paradigm, which are in sharp contrast with each other and are at the origin of basic disagreements and biased information. For the neutral observer these contrasting views, to the extent that they seem to concern facts more than opinions, cause disorientation and stress in the form of the well known phenomenon of cognitive dissonance. Among the international institutions, the World Bank appears to have taken on the responsibility of attenuating such a phenomenon by providing, through its own narratives, stylized truths and balanced interpretations.

Bringing Social Standards into Project Evaluation under Dynamic Uncertainty

Society often sets social standards that define thresholds of damage to society or the environment above which compensation must be paid to the state or other parties. In this article, we analyze the interdependence between the use of social standards and investment evaluation under dynamic uncertainty where a negative externality above a threshold established by society requires an assessment and payment of damages. Under uncertainty, the party considering implementing a project or new technology must not only assess when the project is economically efficient to implement but when to abandon a project that could potentially exceed the social standard. Using real-option theory and simple models, we demonstrate how such a social standard can be integrated into cost-benefit analysis through the use of a development option and a liability option coupled with a damage function. Uncertainty, in fact, implies that both parties interpret the social standard as a target for safety rather than an inflexible barrier that cannot be overcome. The larger is the uncertainty, in fact, the greater will be the tolerance for damages in excess of the social standard from both parties.

Estimating the value of natural resources under legal constraints: an application to marine resources in Sicily

In this article, we use the Contingent Evaluation methodology to develop an economic evaluation of natural resources in a protected marine area of Sicily. Assuming a nonnormal distribution for the ML estimation, the article shows that a variant of the stochastic utility model appears to capture well the dependence of the willingness to pay (WTP) on the socioeconomic characteristics of a sample of stakeholders of the natural resources in question. The estimates obtained are consistent and robust across different policy measures, no embedding or sequencing effects emerge and option values also appear to have been elicited in a consistent way. Once these values are added to the basic WTP, the income elasticities estimated fall in the range reported by other studies.

Growth, Trade and Factor Endowment: A Survey

This paper examines the relationship between factor endowment, human capital formation and trade in the theory of economic growth. The paper analyses the evolution of the idea that both trade and human capital play a leading role in explaining country performance and development. Economic growth, dynamic comparative advantage, international specialization and cumulative technological progress are identified as the key ingredients that explain why countries perform differently and, at the same time, why they may tend to converge towards a common benchmark. Copyright Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999.

Ecosystems -- burden or bounty ?

This paper presents a somewhat novel approach to explore the economic contribution of ecosystems. It develops linked models to capture connections between resource stocks and flows and the resulting microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. A bioeconomic model is developed that is imbedded into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Incorporating imperfect regulation, the bioeconomic model characterizes optimal policies, while the CGE model explores the economy-wide consequences of possible changes to the ecosystem. The model is parameterized and calibrated to the case of the Serengeti ecosystem which is perhaps the most intensively researched biome with a relative abundance of data. This ecosystem is also undergoing rapid change from a host of factors related to developments within and around the protected area system. The analysis identifies the contribution of the ecosystem to the economy and finds that changes in tourism and bushmeat hunting have surprisingly diffuse economy-wide impacts, that are especially large in the rural sector. To guard against overstatement, ecosystem impacts are under-stated relative to other effects. The results suggest that linkages to the natural resource sector (backward and forward multipliers) are important and neglecting these may lead to biased estimates.

Farm size and productivity : a"direct-inverse-direct"relationship

This paper proposes a new interpretation of the farm size-productivity relationship. Using two rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey, and drawing on earlier work on five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper shows that the relationship between farm size and productivity is neither monotonic nor univocal. Most previous studies that tested the inverse farm size-productivity relationship used ordinary least squares estimation, therefore reporting parameter estimates at the conditional mean of productivity. By expanding these important findings to consider the entire distribution of agricultural productivity, the analysis finds sign switches across the distribution, pointing to a ?direct-inverse-direct? relationship. Less productive farmers exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship between land productivity and farm size, while more productive farmers show a U-shape relationship that reverses the relationship. In both cases, the relationship points toward a threshold value of farm size; however, the threshold is a minimum for the less productive farmers and a maximum for the more productive ones. To the left of the threshold, for very small farmers, the relationship between productivity and farm size is positive; for the range of middle farm size, the relationship is negative; and to the right of the threshold, the relationship is direct (positive) again. From a policy perspective, these findings imply that efficiency-enhancing and redistributive land reform should consider farm size in the proper context of the present and potential levels of agricultural productivity. The results and their policy implications underline the relevance of the most recent efforts of the international development community to collect more reliable georeferenced data on farm size and agricultural productivity.