Patricio Navia

DEMOCRACY, DICTATORSHIP, AND INFANT MORTALITY

The effect of economic development in reducing hunger is widely known, but what is the effect of a country’s political regime on the basic welfare of its inhabitants? Does it matter whether that country has an authoritarian or a democratic regime? The answer is yes. Any randomly selected country’s regime, regardless of its level of development, matters for its social performance. Fewer children die in democracies than in dictatorships. The infant mortality rate is the indicator of chronic hunger most commonly used by policy makers and international organizations. In 138 countries observed annually over the period 1950–90, democracies showed markedly lower infant mortality rates than dictatorships. More importantly, at the same levels of development, and everything else being equal, a country’s political regime had an independent effect on infant mortality. Democracy outperformed dictatorship at every level of per-capita GNP. It is well known that per-capita income is inversely correlated with hunger: the higher a country’s per-capita GNP, the lower the number of hungry people in that country. But that is far from the whole story. Average per-capita income, for instance, can mask inequalities between rich and poor. Growth in per-capita income is a necessary but not a sufficient requirement for bringing about an end to chronic hunger. Additional factors are needed; one is a country’s political regime. A political regime is the institutional framework in which decisions Thomas D. Zweifel is chief executive officer of the Swiss Consulting Group. He teaches international organization at New York University and leadership at Columbia University. Patricio Navia is writing his dissertation on how electoral laws influence political party systems in new democracies. He teaches in the School of Continuing Education and Professional Studies at New York University. More technical explanations of parts of this essay are available at www.ned.org.

Democracy, Dictatorship, and Infant Mortality Revisited

This article updates our earlier finding that democracies outperformed dictatorships in 1950-90 by achieving lower infant mortality rates at every level of development. Now we show that this holds even post-Cold War and after the latest wave of democratization. Using 1990-97 data, we again find that democracies outdo dictatorships, though the difference is somewhat smaller now. One key finding is relevant to policymakers: foreign direct investment and aid both significantly reduce IMRs in democracies, but not in dictatorships. Giving money to dictatorships, whether in the form of aid or investment, makes either no difference or even hurts children born there.

THE CONSTITUTIONAL ADJUDICATION MOSAIC OF LATIN AMERICA

This article maps current constitutional adjudication systems in 17 Latin American democracies. Using recent theoretical literature, the authors classify systems by type (concrete or abstract), timing (a priori or a posteriori), and jurisdiction (centralized or decentralized). This approach captures the richness and diversity of constitutional adjudication in Latin America, where most countries concurrently have two or more mechanisms. Four models of constitutional adjudication are currently in use. In the past, weak democratic institutions and the prevalence of inter partes, as opposed to erga omnes, effects of judicial decisions, prevented the development of constitutional adjudication. Today, democratic consolidation has strengthened the judiciary and fostered constitutional adjudication. After discussing the models, the authors highlight the role of the judiciary in the constitutional adjudication bodies, the broad range of options existing to initiate this adjudication process, and the prevalence of amparo (habeas corpus) provisions.

Participación electoral en Chile, 1988-2001

Este trabajo muestra que la participacion electoral en Chile hoy no es menor a la observada hasta antes de 1973. La alta tasa de participacion en 1988 representa una comprensible anomalia. Despues de 15 anos sin votar, los chilenos participaron entusiastamente en el plebiscito. Pero a partir de entonces, la tasa de participacion tendio a la baja hasta llegar a fines de los 90 a niveles similares a los observados antes del quiebre democratico de 1973. Usando un marco teorico que aborda la participacion como una funcion basada en costos y beneficios, discute la participacion electoral en Chile en un contexto internacional, subrayando las diferencias y similitudes de los patrones existentes antes de 1973 y despues de 1988, enfatizando tanto logicas de inscripcion como de participacion electoral. Al hacerlo, aborda la tension que existe entre un electorado estable y un numero creciente de personas no inscritas para votar. Por ultimo, identifica algunas propuestas que permitirian eliminar las trabas institucionales que han llevado a la formacion de dos clases de adultos, aquellos que estando inscritos estan obligados a votar y los que al no estar inscritos no pueden sufragar. Puntualmente, argumenta que al automatizar la inscripcion se puede incorporar a todos sin tener siquiera que entrar a discutir la obligatoriedad del voto

Institutions and the Legislative Success of 'Strong' Presidents: An Analysis of Government Bills in Chile *

This paper examines the approval of government bills in Chile, evaluating the effect of presidential prerogatives and policy substance, and considering both bill-specific and contextual effects. The results show that presidential prerogatives over financial policy, as well as the ability to affect the congressional agenda through urgent bill scheduling, significantly influence government bill approval. As expected, government success is enhanced during the honeymoon period. However, changes in public approval of the president do not appear to exert a significant effect on the passage of presidential bills.

Living in Actually Existing Democracies: Democracy to the Extent Possible in Chile

Chilean democracy is today more consolidated and inclusive than before the military dictatorship or at any point since the center-left Concertación government came to power. Yet the 1973 coup and Augusto Pinochets dictatorship remain a defining moment in Chilean history. After all, democracy has been built on the foundations set in place by the countrys 1980 Constitution. Although the Constitution has been amended several times, it is a reminder that Pinochet is the father of todays Chile, and the Concertación coalition a deserving stepfather. Four consecutive Concertación governments have helped heal deep social and political wounds and have presided over the most successful period of growth and progress in the nations history. I discuss the shortcomings of Chilean democracy before 1973 and the status quo of democracy. Although I acknowledge the threat these might pose to further democratic consolidation, they are evidence of a healthy and working democracy.

Efecto del sistema binominal en el número de candidatos y de partidos en elecciones legislativas en Chile, 1989-2001

Pese a haber sido alegadamente establecido con ese objetivo, el sistema binominal no ha contribuido a reducir el numero de partidos politicos desde que fue utilizado por primera vez en 1989. Al analizar los resultados electorales por distritos de las cuatro contiendas parlamentarias celebradas entre 1989 y el 2001, demostramos que el numero efectivo de partidos no ha variado en form estadisticamente significativa. Argumentamos que el amplio numero de diputadostitulares que se presentan a la reeleccion contribuye a mantener bajo el numero efectivo de partidos y candidatos en las contiendas legislativas chilenas. Finalmente, sugerimos que la presencia de mas mujeres que buscan un escano ha contribuido a disminuir el numero de partidos y candidatos en las contiendas parlamentarias desde 1989 hasta el 2001.

The Chilean Left: Socialist and Neoliberal

As Latin American countries increasingly show symptoms of discontent with neoliberal policies and support grows for leaders opposed to neoliberalism, the Concertacion coalition that has governed Chile since 1990 constitutes an example of successful, popularly supported leftist commitment to neoliberalism. Its success has inhibited the emergence of a stronger popular challenge to neoliberalism in Chile. The Concertacion’s implementation of neoliberalism with a human face—despite shortcomings—has reduced the appeal to Chilean voters of anti-neoliberalism. The presidential election of Michelle Bachelet in early 2006 and the overwhelming electoral victory for the Concertacion in the legislative elections show that when neoliberalism is complemented by policies that promote social and economic inclusion, popular responses against neoliberalism lose appeal. Here, after examining the performance of both Ricardo Lagos and Bachelet as socialist presidents, I discuss the reasons for the Concertacion’s success. I then discuss the lessons that can be drawn by other leftist leaders in the region.

Representación y tamaño de los distritos electorales en Chile, 1988-2002

Este articulo muestra como el mapa electoral de la Camara de Diputados en Chile fue disenado despues del plebiscito de 1988 para sobre-representar la votacion a favor de los partidos de derecha. Despues de discutir como se creo el mapa electoral, se identifica una correlacion positiva entre la votacion contra Pinochet y el numero de habitantes de los distritos. Ademas, se subraya como los cambios en los patrones de poblacion ocurridos entre 1988 y el 2002 han empeorado las distorsiones originales en el tamano de los distritos. Finalmente, se evalua el efecto de este sesgo en el tamano de distritos en las presidenciales de 1999 y en las parlamentarias del 2001. Se demuestra que a diferencia de 1988, ya no existe una correlacion positiva entre el tamano de los distritos y la fortaleza electoral de la Concertacion. Pero se argumenta que persiste una representacion desigual en tanto la poblacion de los 60 distritos varia sustancialmente.

Partidos Políticos como antídoto contra el populismo en América Latina

Definiendo populismo como un esfuerzo por debilitar las instituciones, en este articulo planteo que los partidos politicos pueden ser un antidoto contra el populismo. Mientras mas fuertes y mas accountable ante la poblacion sean los partidos, menores seran las posibilidades que aparezcan nuevos lideres populistas en America Latina. En este trabajo defino partido politico como grupo de politicos que siguen asociados en la misma organizacion despues de perder una eleccion. De esta forma prescindo de variables ideologicas para definirlos. Ademas, esta definicion me permite diferenciar partidos politicos de movimientos populistas temporales que se organizan electoralmente como partidos. La estabilidad del sistema politico esta determinada por la existencia de partidos politicos. Analizando casos historicos y recientes de Latinoamerica y ofreciendo datos electorales que validan estas afirmaciones, sugiero que los paises donde existen formaciones partidarias estables y fuertes tienen menos riesgos de experimentar fenomenos populistas. Tambien sugiero que las experiencias populistas en dichos paises solo aparecen asociadas al debilitamiento de los partidos politicos. Asi, la existencia de verdaderos partidos politicos es una condicion necesaria, no suficiente, para evitar la irrupcion del populismo.