Patrick Conway

IMF lending programs: Participation and impact

Abstract Participation in IMF programs has been an option that more and more developing countries have exercised in recent years. In this paper a detailed analysis of such participation over the period 1976–1986 provides a number of insights into the motivations for and the macroeconomic effects of such participation. Participation is driven by a combination of past performance, present external influences and sluggish adjustment of developing countries. The ability to predict which countries will participate in the IMF program is quite good, with nearly 90 percent of variation in such choices accounted for by the explanatory variables employed. Increased participation has as contemporaneous effects a reduction in economic growth and domestic investment and an improvement in the current account. Lagged effects of increased participation on economic growth and domestic investment are positive, and in most estimates quantitatively greater than the contemporaneous effects. There is also evidence of significantly lower public investment, an increased budget surplus and real depreciation of the exchange rate with increased participation. Results for domestic credit creation and government current expenditure, although they have a sign consistent with more austere policy, cannot be shown to be significantly different from those not participating.

Islam and modernization : a comparative analysis of Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey

List of Tables Preface Introduction Explaining Modernization Religion and Modernization Islam and Modernization Religiopolitical System of Pakistan and Modernization Religiopolitical System of Egypt and Modernization Religiopolitical System of Turkey and Modernization Conclusion Bibliography Index

Is Africa different

Abstract Africas macroeconomic response to external shocks was significantly differrent from that of other developing countries during 1976–1986. Nonparametric tests that correct for differing initial conditions indicate significantly lower economic growth in African economies. Average inflation was also significantly lower, while current-account deficits were larger. Economic policies in African countries are characterized by significantly larger budget deficits and government current expenditure as a share of gross domestic product and by greater inward orientation. African economies in the CFA Franc Zones are distinguished by relatively lower inflation, budget deficits, and less reduction in investment/GNP ratios.

Oil windfalls in a controlled economy: A ‘fix-price’ equilibrium analysis of Algeria

Abstract The Algerian macroeconomic response to oil windfalls, which differs from that expected of a neoclassical economy, is examined through application of ‘fix-price’ equilibrium analysis. A model of the aggregate macroeconomy is specified and its response decomposed into behavioral and involuntary spillover elements. The implications of Classical unemployment are derived. Econometric estimation of the model for the period 1966–1984 supports the importance of involuntary spillovers as an explanation of Algerias unusual pattern of demand and money balance accumulation; rationing is shown to have been considerable relative to observed consumption in recent years. Two major conclusions are drawn. (1) Fix-price modeling captures an important feature of the Algerian economy during this period; analyses ignoring spillovers will provide biased results. (2) Conventional neoclassical estimation will in general confound behavioral parameters and spillover effects for countries where the price mechanism is not permitted to operate freely. This will lead to biased behavioral estimates and inaccurate policy advice.

Growth and Trade with Asymmetric Returns to Scale: A Model for Nicholas Kaldor

. . . manufacturing activities are subject of increasing returns to scale-both of a static and a dynamic kind-and under these conditions the presumption derived from Ricardos doctrine of comparative costs-the presumption that free trade secures the best allocation of resources to each and every participant, and that there must be net gain from trade all round-no longer holds. For under these conditions it can be demonstrated that free trade may lead to stunted growth, or even impoverishment of some regions (or countries) to the greater benefit of others.

The Crisis Years

In the transition economies the period from independence through 1994 was identified with crisis in earlier chapters, and those who lived through it will certainly agree. The crisis period was characterized by extreme economic collapse throughout the former Soviet Union. Table V.1) provides annual economic growth figures for the period 1991–1994, and highlights the message of chapter I: while there is variation across countries, every one of the transition economies experienced a significant fall in production that persisted and intensified through this period

Decomposing the determinants of trade deficits. Turkey in the 1970s

Abstract Persistent trade deficits in developing countries have followed the increases in crude oil prices of the 1970s. This paper examines through econometric estimation and shock decomposition analysis this persistence for the Turkish economy. Results highlight the primary role played in trade deficit creation by government tariff and exchange rate policies; also of interest is the measured responsiveness of the private economy to price incentives offered both by changing international conditions and government policy. The Turkish economy provides an empirical example of contractionary devaluation; the importance of devaluation cum liberalization for deficit reduction and economic growth is established.

Macroeconomic adjustment in IMF-supported programs: Projections and reality

Globalization and the nation state: the impact of the IMF and the World Bank , Globalization and the nation state: the impact of the IMF and the World Bank , کتابخانه دیجیتال و فن آوری اطلاعات دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)

Latin American debt and adjustment : external shocks and macroeconomic policies

Preface Introduction: Latin American Debt and the Transfer Problem The Transmission of External Shocks to Latin America Debt, Depression and Real Rates of Interest in Latin America Lessons of the Past: The Role of External Shocks in Chilean Recessions, 1926-1982 The Transmission of Terms-of-Trade Shocks Fiscal Constraints and the Adjustment Process Fiscal Lags and the Problem of Stabilization: Argentinas Austral Plan Adjustment to Interest Rate Shocks in Latin America and the Caribbean Financial Market Instability and External Shocks Macroeconomic Instability and Moral Hazard in Banking in a Liberalizing Economy The Chilean Financial Collapse Labor Market Disequilibrium and Adjustment Labor Market Adjustment with Wage Indexation: The Case of Chile Between 1974-1980 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies Debt and Adjustment in the Dominican Republic: The Second Time Around Exchange Controls and the Breakdown of Central American Trade in the 1980s The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Mexican Peso: A Monetary Approach The Political Economy of Stabilization Programs Debt, Stabilization, and Liberalization in Costa Rica: Political Economy Responses to a Fiscal Crisis Recession and Adjustment in the Dominican Republic: 1983-1985 Long-Run Trade Strategies for Latin America International Commodity Trade and Latin American Exports: An Empirical Investigation Bibliography Index

Managing Foreign Direct Investment: Commitment, Deterrence, And Diversion

The paper models the multinational choice between foreign direct investment in and exporting to a domestic market as an equilibrium outcome of strategic play between domestic and foreign firms. Two cases are considered, one in which the domestic firm can precommit to output levels (as, for example, through investment in a distribution network), and one in which such precommitment is not possible. The domestic firms strategy in the case of precommitment includes aggressive efforts to deter or divert foreign investment and results in fewer observed equilibria with foreign investment than would otherwise occur. Tariffs designed to switch the foreign decision from exporting to direct investment may lead instead to monopolization of the market by the domestic firm.