Patrick J. Kehoe

International Real Business Cycles

We ask whether a two-country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles. With this question in mind, we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data. The most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries. In the data, outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions. In the model we see the opposite.

Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates

The central puzzle in international business cycles is that fluctuations in real exchange rates are volatile and persistent. We quantify the popular story for real exchange rate fluctuations: they are generated by monetary shocks interacting with sticky goods prices. If prices are held fixed for at least one year, risk aversion is high, and preferences are separable in leisure, then real exchange rates generated by the model are as volatile as in the data and quite persistent, but less so than in the data. The main discrepancy between the model and the data, the consumption—real exchange rate anomaly, is that the model generates a high correlation between real exchange rates and the ratio of consumption across countries, while the data show no clear pattern between these variables. Copyright 2002, Wiley-Blackwell.

Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?

The purpose of this paper is to construct a quantitative equilibrium model with price setting and use it to ask whether staggered price setting can generate persistent output fluctuations following monetary shocks. We construct a business cycle version of a standard sticky price model in which imperfectly competitive firms set nominal prices in a staggered fashion. We assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short period of time. Persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices very much when they can do so. We find the amount of endogenous stickiness to be small. As a result, we find that such a model cannot generate persistent movements in output following monetary shocks.

Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model

This paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model. In a stationary equilibrium, the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero. There is an equivalence class of ex post capital income tax rates and bond policies that support a given allocation. Within this class, the optimal ex post capital tax rates can range from close to independently and identically distributed to close to a random walk. The tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks; thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk. Most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax system like that of the United States to the Ramsey system come from an initial period of high taxation on capital income.

International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets

Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1992), Baxter and Crucini (1995) and Stockman and Tesar (1995) find two major discrepancies between standard international business cycle models with complete markets and the data: In the models, cross-country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true; and cross-country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper introduces a friction into a standard model that helps resolve these anomalies. The friction is that international loans are imperfectly enforceable; any country can renege on its debts and suffer the consequences for future borrowing. To solve for equilibrium in this economy with endogenous incomplete markets, the methods of Marcet and Marimon (1999) are extended. Incorporating the friction helps resolve the anomalies more than does exogenously restricting the assets that can be traded.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results

This paper studies the quantitative properties of fiscal and monetary policy in business cycle models. In terms of fiscal policy, optimal labor tax rates are virtually constant and optimal capital income tax rates are close to zero on average. In terms of monetary policy, the Friedman rule is optimal—nominal interest rates are zero—and optimal monetary policy is activist in the sense that it responds to shocks to the economy.

In search of scale effects in trade and growth

We look for the scale effects predicted by some theories of trade and growth based on the dynamic returns to scale that arise from learning by doing, investment in human capital, or development of new products. We find little empirical evidence of a relation between the growth rate of GDP per capita and the measures of scale implied by the theory. Restricting attention to the manufacturing sector, however, we find a significant relation between the growth rate of output per worker and the relevant scale variables. We also find that growth rates are significantly related to measures of intra-industry trade.

Modeling and measuring organization capital

Manufacturing plants have a clear life cycle: they are born small, grow substantially with age, and eventually die. Economists have long thought that this life cycle is driven by organization capital, the accumulation of plant‐specific knowledge. The location of plants in the life cycle determines the size of the payments, or organization rents, plant owners receive from organization capital. These payments are compensation for the interest cost to plant owners of waiting for their plants to grow. We use a quantitative growth model of the life cycle of plants, along with U.S. data, to infer the overall size of these payments.

Policy Cooperation Among Benevolent Governments May Be Undesirable

This paper presents a simple counterexample to the belief that policy cooperation among benevolent governments is desirable. It also explains circumstances under which such counter-examples are possible and relates them to the literature on time inconsistency.

Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes

We find conditions for the Friedman rule to be optimal in three standard models of money. These conditions are homotheticity and separability assumptions on preferences similar to those in the public finance literature on optimal uniform commodity taxation. We show that there is no connection between our results and the result in the standard public finance literature that intermediate goods should not be taxed.