Patrick Jöckel

Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment

The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry-climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry-Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal-2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appears quasi-linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a given forcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results from differences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jet is generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes. This result is discussed in the context of quasi-geostrophic zonal mean dynamics.

Small Interannual Variability of Global Atmospheric Hydroxyl

The abundance of the highly reactive hydroxyl radical is well buffered against perturbations. The oxidizing capacity of the global atmosphere is largely determined by hydroxyl (OH) radicals and is diagnosed by analyzing methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) measurements. Previously, large year-to-year changes in global mean OH concentrations have been inferred from such measurements, suggesting that the atmospheric oxidizing capacity is sensitive to perturbations by widespread air pollution and natural influences. We show how the interannual variability in OH has been more precisely estimated from CH3CCl3 measurements since 1998, when atmospheric gradients of CH3CCl3 had diminished as a result of the Montreal Protocol. We infer a small interannual OH variability as a result, indicating that global OH is generally well buffered against perturbations. This small variability is consistent with measurements of methane and other trace gases oxidized primarily by OH, as well as global photochemical model calculations.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends

The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi‐model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) through process-oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal-2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry-climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere-stratosphere chemistry, and non-orographic gravity-wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

A multimodel assessment of the performance of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) is conducted for the first time. Process-oriented diagnostics are used to validate dynamical and transport characteristics of 18 CCMs using meteorological analyses and aircraft and satellite observations. The main dynamical and chemical climatological characteristics of the extratropical UTLS are generally well represented by the models, despite the limited horizontal and vertical resolution. The seasonal cycle of lowermost stratospheric mass is realistic, however with a wide spread in its mean value. A tropopause inversion layer is present in most models, although the maximum in static stability is located too high above the tropopause and is somewhat too weak, as expected from limited model resolution. Similar comments apply to the extratropical tropopause transition layer. The seasonality in lower stratospheric chemical tracers is consistent with the seasonality in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both vertical and meridional tracer gradients are of similar strength to those found in observations. Models that perform less well tend to use a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and/or have a very low resolution. Two models, and the multimodel mean, score consistently well on all diagnostics, while seven other models score well on all diagnostics except the seasonal cycle of water vapor. Only four of the models are consistently below average. The lack of tropospheric chemistry in most models limits their evaluation in the upper troposphere. Finally, the UTLS is relatively sparsely sampled by observations, limiting our ability to quantitatively evaluate many aspects of model performance.

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

Changes in the global atmospheric methane budget over the last decades inferred from13C and D isotopic analysis of Antarctic firn air

The atmospheric trend of methane isotopic ratios since the mid-20th century has been reconstructed from Antarctic firn air. High volume air samples were extracted at several depth levels at two sites in East Antarctica. Methane concentration and its 13C/12C and D/H ratios were determined by gas chromatography, mass spectrometry, and infrared spectroscopy. A firn air transport model was applied to reconstruct past atmospheric trends in methane and its isotopic composition. By subsequent application of an atmospheric model, changes in methane sources and OH sink compatible with the past atmospheric trends are explored. In step with increasing methane mixing ratios, δ13C increased by ∼1.7‰ over the last 50 years. These changes mainly reflect a shift in relative source strength toward the heavier anthropogenic methane source, such as biomass burning and methane of nonbiological origin. The δD (CH4) showed a period of decline between the 1950s and 1975, followed by a gradual increase of 0.55‰/yr, also toward the heavier anthropogenic source. Dependent on possible changes in the OH sink, to which δD of methane is very sensitive, the inferred isotopic trends of δ13C and δD over the last 50 years constrain the relationship between natural and anthropogenic sources over the last century. The observed δD minimum around 1975 suggests that the slowing down in the methane source growth took place during this period.

Review of progress in isotope studies of atmospheric carbon monoxide

Abstract Progress made since the start of isotopic analysis of the important atmospheric trace gas carbon monoxide is reviewed. A systematic discussion of the main processes leading to variations in stable isotope ratios for 13 C and 18 O is given. Also the recently discovered deviation in the 17 O content of atmospheric CO is discussed. Further the role of 14 CO in atmospheric chemistry as a gauge for atmospheric hydroxyl is elucidated.

Simulations of cosmogenic 14CO using the three-dimensional atmospheric model MATCH: Effects of 14C production distribution and the solar cycle

Most atmospheric 14 CO is produced by cosmic rays in the lowermost stratosphere and upper troposphere. The main removal process for 14 CO is oxidation by OH radicals. Assuming that the spatial distribution of OH is well known, 14 CO can be useful as a test-tracer for the transport properties of a three-dimensional chemical model. Conversely, if the transport schemes of the model are sufficiently realistic, in particular with respect to stratosphere-troposphere exchange, the OH distribution can be evaluated. In either case, it has to be assumed that the source of 14 CO is known in sufficient detail. Two presently available distributions of cosmogenic 14 C production are implemented into the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH). The tropospheric 14 CO concentrations that are obtained are relatively insensitive to the source differences. The calculations for one source distribution are performed for solar minimum and solar maximum conditions. The spatial distribution of 14 CO is almost unaffected by the solar activity, and the absolute concentration levels can be scaled to the actual solar cycle conditions.

Assessing the effect of marine isoprene and ship emissions on ozone, using modelling and measurements from the South Atlantic Ocean

Environmental context. Air over the remote Southern Atlantic Ocean is amongst the cleanest anywhere on the planet. Yet in summer a large-scale natural phytoplankton bloom emits numerous natural reactive compounds into the overlying air. The productive waters also support a large squid fishing fleet, which emits significant amounts of NO and NO2. The combination of these natural and man-made emissions can efficiently produce ozone, an important atmospheric oxidant. Abstract. Ship-borne measurements have been made in air over the remote South Atlantic and Southern Oceans in January–March 2007. This cruise encountered a large-scale natural phytoplankton bloom emitting reactive hydrocarbons (e.g. isoprene); and a high seas squid fishing fleet emitting NOx (NO and NO2). Using an atmospheric chemistry box model constrained by in-situ measurements, it is shown that enhanced ozone production ensues from such juxtaposed marine biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. The relative impact of shipping and phytoplankton emissions on ozone was examined on a global scale using the EMAC model. Ozone in the marine boundary layer was found to be over ten times more sensitive to NOx emissions from ships, than to marine isoprene in the region south of 45°. Although marine isoprene emissions make little impact on the global ozone budget, co-located ship and phytoplankton emissions may explain the increasing ozone reported for the 40–60°S southern Atlantic region.