Patrick Kouontchou

A R-SOM Analysis of the Link between Financial Market Conditions and a Systemic Risk Index Based on ICA-Factors of Systemic Risk Measures

Due to the recent financial crisis, several systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature for quantifying financial system wide distress. In this note we propose an aggregated Index for financial systemic risk measurement based on EOF and ICA analyses on the several systemic risk measures released in the recent literature. We use this index to further identify the states of the market as suggested in Kouontchou et al. [18]. We show, by characterizing markets conditions with a robust Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps algorithm that this measure is directly linked to crises markets states and there is a strong link between return and systemic risk.

An Economic Evaluation of Model Risk in Long‐Term Asset Allocations

Following the recent crisis and the revealed weakness of risk management practices, regulators of developed markets have recommended that financial institutions assess model risk. Standard risk measures, such as the Value-at-Risk (VaR), emerged over recent decades as the industry standard for risk management and have today become a key tool for asset allocation. We illustrate and estimate model risk, and focus on the evaluation of its impact on optimal portfolios at various time horizons. Based on a long sample of U.S. data, we find a non-linear relation between VaR model errors and the horizon that impacts optimal asset allocations.