Patrick Luickx

Applying Markov chains for the determination of the capacity credit of wind power

Investments in wind power occur everywhere in the world. The value of these investments for integration in an electricity generation system cannot be determined in the same way as conventional electricity sources due to the variable and relative unpredictable nature of wind power. Wind power can only to some limited extend be centrally dispatched. To look at the long term value of investments in wind power, the term capacity credit can be used. It defines the level of conventional generation that can be replaced by wind power generation. Using four adequacy indices, namely Loss-of-load Expectancy (LOLE), Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE), Loss-of-load Frequency (LOLF) and Expected Interruption Cost (EIC), the Peak load Carrying Capability (PLCC) is established for different sizes and locations of wind power in a system. The PLCC can be seen as a way to quantify the capacity credit of wind power since it determines how much the load can be increased for a given level of wind power investment, while maintaining the system reliability. The adequacy indices are found to vary depending on size and location of wind power investments, therefore causing the PLCC to change accordingly. A Monte Carlo approach is used for determining the indices. Expected and unexpected outages of system elements are simulated and evaluated against system load. Wind power data are generated through Markov chains, based on actual meteorological data from Belgian weather measurement sites, thereby preserving the same statistical properties as the original data.

Importance of design parameters on flowbased market coupling implementation

The paper looks into how different design parameters influence the outcome of flowbased market coupling (FBMC). FBMC is currently being developed as the future market design for congestion management for Central West and Central East Europe (CWE and CEE) regions. The market design defines how interconnection capacity between two price zones is being calculated and allocated to the market. In theory FBMC possesses several advantages when compared to the currently in place ATC-based calculation and allocation methods. The level of efficiency, non-discrimination and market orientation of FBMC is dependent on different parameters that are being applied. The most important parameters that have been brought up in discussions on FBMC implementation in the CWE region are the selection of critical branches (CB), the flow reliability margin (FRM), generation shift key (GSK), and remedial actions. This paper analyses the potential impact of FRM (linked to the zone size) and GSK on FBMC. Through a simplified model various aspects of FBMC are introduced. The impact of zone definition is assessed applying this model. The analysis shows that smaller and more numerous zones lead to lower margins (FRM) and reduced uncertainty. Next, the choice of GSKs is shown to impact market equilibrium of FBMC and consequently its prices.

Non-convexities in European day-ahead electricity markets: Belgium as a case study

This paper reviews important issues at stake concerning non-convexities in coupled European day-ahead electricity markets. After reviewing the two main types of non-convexities introduced in such markets, some well-known facts on uniform pricing are recalled by means of toy examples. A closer look is given to the possibility to use non-uniform prices in the future, considering aspects of the problem from an economic, algorithmic and legal perspective. Numerical insights are provided for instances corresponding to the Belgian market. The present contribution mainly aims at fostering debates on non-uniform pricing as a possible mid-term solution to rising challenges posed by an ever-growing Pan-European day-ahead electricity market.

Impact of sophisticated orders on spot power prices

In this paper, we analyse the impact of the introduction of more sophisticated types of bids on the wholesale day ahead market for electricity. The Belgian market is taken as a case study with available data used for the period 2007-2010. Sophisticated orders allow physical assets to be allocated in the most efficient way, even if prices deviate significantly from expectations. In this paper we analyse the quantitative impact on spot prices, both in terms of level and variability, if smart bids had been introduced. The main focus lies on tailor made sophisticated orders for pumped storage. The analyses are based on market resiliency data of Belpex, the Belgian Power exchange, and real historical data on available pumped storage plants. The findings could tip the balance to deepening the market coupling along with the widening to other geographical areas. Our results indicate that straight-forward solutions can improve the optimal allocation of scarce resources in the day ahead electricity market.

Impact of wind power on commercial and physical flows within the CWE region

The paper aims at providing better understanding of the discrepancy between commercial and physical interconnection capacity for electricity. Loop flows, expected loop flows and the ways to deal with it constitute the focus of the discrepancy analysis. Apart from investigating the uncertainty aspect of loop flows, the variability and relative unpredictability of wind power are also analysed in the light of loop flows. The Central West Europe region is used as a practical case.

A continuous intraday trading model in a CACM FG compliant world

The paper looks upon a possible way of designing a continuous trade intraday market in Europe, in accordance with the Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management (CACM) Framework Guideline (FG). The sequential approach of a purely continuous trading is shown to limit optimal trading in the intraday market. Automatic Matching (AM) of trades is proposed to solve this problem and to allow pricing of (cross-zonal) transmission capacity. The model presented in this paper proposes a combination of continuous trading and auctions: in case of congestions auctions are applied. The automatic matching process can be used to match multiple bids/asks located in different bidding zones, applying flow-based constraints as well as to match hourly products with several types of sophisticated products.