Patrick R. Roehrdanz

Climate change, wine, and conservation

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

Economic Costs of Achieving Current Conservation Goals in the Future as Climate Changes

Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the states Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US

Wastewater compounds in urban shallow groundwater wells correspond to exfiltration probabilities of nearby sewers

1.67-1.79 billion, or 139-149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost

Spatial Models of Sewer Pipe Leakage Predict the Occurrence of Wastewater Indicators in Shallow Urban Groundwater

2.46-2.62 billion, or 209-219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes-that we found in an assessment of one conservation project-highlights the need for tools that will aid in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation.

Erratum to: The impact of climate change on California's ecosystem services

Wastewater compounds are frequently detected in urban shallow groundwater. Sources include sewage or reclaimed wastewater, but origins are often unknown. In a prior study, wastewater compounds were quantified in waters sampled from shallow groundwater wells in a small coastal California city. Here, we resampled those wells and expanded sample analyses to include sewage- or reclaimed water-specific indicators, i.e. pharmaceutical and personal care product chemicals or disinfection byproducts. Also, we developed a geographic information system (GIS)-based model of sanitary sewer exfiltration probability--combining a published pipe failure model accounting for sewer pipe size, age, materials of construction, with interpolated depths to groundwater--to determine if sewer system attributes relate to wastewater compounds in urban shallow groundwater. Across the wells, groundwater samples contained varying wastewater compounds, including acesulfame, sucralose, bisphenol A, 4-tert-octylphenol, estrone and perfluorobutanesulfonic acid (PFBS). Fecal indicator bacterial concentrations and toxicological bioactivities were less than known benchmarks. However, the reclaimed water in this study was positive for all bioactivity tested. Excluding one well intruded by seawater, the similarity of groundwater to sewage, based on multiple indicators, increased with increasing sanitary sewer exfiltration probability (modeled from infrastructure within ca. 300 m of each well). In the absence of direct exfiltration or defect measurements, sewer exfiltration probabilities modeled from the collection systems physical data can indicate potential locations where urban shallow groundwater is contaminated by sewage.

The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services

Twentieth century municipal wastewater infrastructure greatly improved U.S. urban public health and water quality. However, sewer pipes deteriorate, and their accumulated structural defects may release untreated wastewater to the environment via acute breaks or insidious exfiltration. Exfiltrated wastewater constitutes a loss of potentially reusable water and delivers a complex and variable mix of contaminants to urban shallow groundwater. Yet, predicting where deteriorated sewers impinge on shallow groundwater has been challenging. Here we develop and test a spatially explicit model of exfiltration probability based on pipe attributes and groundwater elevation without prior knowledge of exfiltrating defect locations. We find that models of exfiltration probability can predict the probable occurrence in underlying shallow groundwater of established wastewater indicators including the artificial sweetener acesulfame, tryptophan-like fluorescent dissolved organic matter, nitrate, and a stable isotope of water (δ18O). The strength of the association between exfiltration probability and indicators of wastewater increased when multiple pipe attributes, distance weighting, and groundwater flow direction were considered in the model. The results prove that available sanitary sewer databases and groundwater digital elevation data can be analyzed to predict where pipes are likely leaking and contaminating groundwater. Such understanding could direct sewer infrastructure reinvestment toward water resource protection.

Climate Change and the Cost of Conserving Species in Madagascar

Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will substantially alter or eliminate certain ecosystem services in the future. To better understand the consequences of climate change and to develop effective means of adapting to them, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the links between climate, ecosystem service production, and the economy. This study examines the impact of climate change on the terrestrial distribution and the subsequent production and value of two key ecosystem services in California: (1) carbon sequestration and (2) natural (i.e. nonirrigated) forage production for livestock. Under various scenarios of future climate change, Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0313-4 M. R. Shaw (*) : D. R. Cameron :K. Klausmeyer : J. MacKenzie : E. Haunreiter The Environmental Defense Fund, 123 Mission Street 28th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA e-mail: rshaw@edf.org L. Pendleton The Nicholas Institute, Duke University, P.O. Box 90335, Durham, NC 27708, USA e-mail: linwood.pendleton@duke.edu B. Morris Environmental Defense Fund, 1107 9th Street, suite 1070, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA D. Bachelet : J. Lenihan USDA Forest Service, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA D. R. Conklin : C. Daly Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, USA D. R. Conklin e-mail: david.conklin@lifeboatearth.org G. N. Bratman Stanford University, Stanford, USA P. R. Roehrdanz University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, USA we predict that the provision and value of ecosystem services decline under most, but not all, future greenhouse gas trajectories. The predicted changes would result in decreases in the economic output for the state and global economy and illustrate some of the hidden costs of climate change. Since existing information is insufficient to conduct impact analysis across most ecosystem services, a comprehensive research program focused on estimating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services will be important for understanding, mitigating and adapting to future losses in ecosystem service production and the economic value they provide.