Patrick Villieu

PERSISTENT DEFICIT, GROWTH, AND INDETERMINACY

In this paper, we look for long-run and short-run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth in an endogenous growth model with productive public spending that may be financed by public deficit and debt. The model shows a multiplicity of long-run balanced growth paths (a high-growth and a low-growth steady state) and a possible indeterminacy of the transition path, which may be consistent with the empirical literature, which exhibits strong nonlinear responses of economic growth to fiscal deficits. Starting from the high-growth steady state, a positive impulse in the deficit ratio exerts an adverse effect on economic growth in the long run, after an initial rise. Starting from the low-growth steady state, the situation may be radically undetermined, and the effect of fiscal deficit impulses is subjected to “optimistic” or “pessimistic” views on public-debt sustainability.

Further theoretical and empirical evidence on money to growth relation

This paper proposes a theoretical growth model where seigniorage can be used to finance productive public spending, and show the existence of nonlinear effects between seigniorage and economic growth. Empirical evidence based on panel regression techniques provides some support for these nonlinear effects on a sample of OECD countries over the 1978-2005 period.

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: In Search of Trade-offs

The concern for nancial stability has gained increasing interest for monetary policy making. In the aftermath of the 2008 global nancial crisis, it has been