Patrizia Tumbarello

Regional Trade Integration and WTO Accession: Which is the Right Sequencing? An Application to the CIS

This paper analyzes the appropriate sequencing between accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the implementation of the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) customs union and whether the latter facilitates or delays WTO accession for some member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). If EAEC members pursue a coordinated approach toward WTO accession, this may cause delays that benefit some countries at the expense of others. The paper simulates the welfare effects resulting from the two sequencing alternatives (customs union and WTO or the reverse). The results show that, from a consumer surplus standpoint, it would be preferable to join the WTO ahead of the EAEC customs union. This paper does not attempt to assess the welfare implications of joining the EAEC as a political and economic entity, but only the welfare implications resulting from the implementation of the EAEC customs union.

What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach

This paper analyzes the factors driving house prices in Australia from a cross-country perspective using several approaches. It uses a cointegration technique to estimate the long-run equilibrium house prices in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada and assesses the extent of a possible disequilibrium. It also presents an event analysis to shed some light on the link between house prices, capital inflows and the terms of trade. The econometric analysis suggests an overvaluation of 5-10 percent depending on the model specification. Event analysis indicates that terms of trade shocks were associated with larger increases in house prices in Australia, than in the case of strong capital inflow episodes.

Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States

The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy reliance on aid. Higher fixed government costs, low access to credit by the private sector, and capacity constraints are also key challenges. The econometric analysis confirms that the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have underperformed relative to their peers over the last 20 years. Although these countries often face more limited policy tools, policies do matter and can further help build resilience and raise potential growth, as evidenced in the recent business cycle. The Asia and Pacific small states should continue rebuilding buffers and improve the composition of public spending in order to foster inclusive growth. Regional solutions should also continue to be pursued.

Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries

Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles, and spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than from advanced economies outside the region. While strong linkages with Asia would help in the event of a global downturn, PICs remain particularly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks. In this paper, we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for each PIC to gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers. The analysis reveals that the impact on PICs’ growth from an adverse oil shock would be substantial, and in some cases even larger than from a negative global demand shock. We also assess the spillovers to the financial sector from the deterioration of the global outlook. PICs should continue to rebuild policy buffers and implement growth-oriented structural reforms to ensure sustained and inclusive growth.

Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States

Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available for growth-promoting capital spending. Small states generally face greater revenue volatility than other country groups, owing to their exposure to exogenous shocks (including natural disasters) and narrow production bases. With limited buffers, revenue volatility often results in procyclical fiscal policy as the econometric analysis shows. To strengthen fiscal frameworks, small states should seek to streamline and prioritize recurrent spending to create fiscal space for capital spending. The quality of spending could also be improved through public financial management reform and multiyear budgeting.

Challenges in Correspondent Banking in the Small States of the Pacific

Access to financial services in the small states of the Pacific is being eroded. Weaknesses in Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism compliance in the context of high levels of remittances are contributing to banks’ decisions to withdraw corresponding banking relationships and close bank accounts of money transfer operators. In this paper, we gather evidence on these developments in the small states of the Pacific, discuss the main drivers, and the potentially negative impact on the financial sector and macroeconomy. We then identify the collective efforts needed to address the consequences of withdrawal of corresponding banking relationships and outline policy measures to help the affected countries mitigate the impact.

Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific

Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.