Paul A. O'Gorman

The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.

Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.

The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM

A wide range of hydrological cycles and general circulations was simulated with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) by varying the optical thickness of the longwave absorber. While the idealized GCM does not capture the full complexity of the hydrological cycle, the wide range of climates simulated allows the systematic development and testing of theories of how precipitation and moisture transport change as the climate changes. The simulations show that the character of the response of the hydrological cycle to variations in longwave optical thickness differs in different climate regimes. The global-mean precipitation increases linearly with surface temperature for colder climates, but it asymptotically approaches a maximum at higher surface temperatures. The basic features of the precipitation–temperature relation, including the rate of increase in the linear regime, are reproduced in radiative– convective equilibrium simulations. Energy constraints partially account for the precipitation–temperature relation but are not quantitatively accurate. Large-scale condensation is most important in the midlatitude storm tracks, and its behavior is accounted for using a stochastic model of moisture advection and condensation. The precipitation associated with large-scale condensation does not scale with mean specific humidity, partly because the condensation region moves upward and meridionally as the climate warms, and partly because the mean condensation rate depends on isentropic specific humidity gradients, which do not scale with the specific humidity itself. The local water vapor budget relates local precipitation to evaporation and meridional moisture fluxes, whose scaling in the subtropics and extratropics is examined. A delicate balance between opposing changes in evaporation and moisture flux divergence holds in the subtropical dry zones. The extratropical precipitation maximum follows the storm track in warm climates but lies equatorward of the storm track in cold climates.

Scaling of Precipitation Extremes over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM

Extremes of precipitation are examined in a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized aquaplanet GCM. The high percentiles of daily precipitation increase as the climate warms. Their fractional rate of increase with global-mean surface temperature is generally similar to or greater than that of mean precipitation, but it is less than that of atmospheric (column) water vapor content. A simple scaling is introduced for precipitation extremes that accounts for their behavior by including the effects of changes in the moist-adiabatic lapse rate, the circulation strength, and the temperature when the extreme events occur. The effects of changes in the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and circulation strength on precipitation extremes are important globally, whereas the difference in the mean temperature and the temperature at which precipitation extremes occur is important only at middle to high latitudes.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Energy of Midlatitude Transient Eddies in Idealized Simulations of Changed Climates

As the climate changes, changes in static stability, meridional temperature gradients, and availability of moisture for latent heat release may exert competing effects on the energy of midlatitude transient eddies. This paper examines how the eddy kinetic energy in midlatitude baroclinic zones responds to changes in radiative forcing in simulations with an idealized moist general circulation model. In a series of simulations in which the optical thickness of the longwave absorber is varied over a wide range, the eddy kinetic energy has a maximum for a climate with mean temperature similar to that of present-day earth, with significantly smaller values both for warmer and for colder climates. In a series of simulations in which the meridional insolation gradient is varied, the eddy kinetic energy increases monotonically with insolation gradient. In both series of simulations, the eddy kinetic energy scales approximately linearly with the dry mean available potential energy averaged over the baroclinic zones. Changes in eddy kinetic energy can therefore be related to the changes in the atmospheric thermal structure that affect the mean available potential energy.

The Effective Static Stability Experienced by Eddies in a Moist Atmosphere

Water vapor directly affects the dynamics of atmospheric eddy circulations through the release of latent heat. But it is difficult to include latent heat release in dynamical theories because of the associated nonlinearity (precipitation generally occurs where there is upward motion). A new effective static stability is derived that fundamentally captures the effect of latent heat release on moist eddy circulations. It differs from the usual dry static stability by an additive term that depends on temperature and a parameter measuring the up–down asymmetry of vertical velocity statistics. Latent heat release reduces the effective static stability experienced by eddies but cannot reduce it to zero so long as there are nonprecipitating regions of the eddies. Evaluation based on reanalysis data indicates that the effective static stability in the lower troposphere ranges from ;80% of the dry static stability at high latitudes to ;25% in the tropics. The effective static stability provides a solution to the longstanding problem of how to adapt dry dynamical theories to the moist circulations in the atmosphere. Its utility for climate change problems is illustrated based on simulations with an idealized general circulation model. It is shown to help account for changes in the thermal stratification of the extratropical troposphere, the extent of the Hadley cells, the intensity of extratropical transient eddies, and the extratropical eddy length.

A Climatology of Tropospheric Zonal-Mean Water Vapor Fields and Fluxes in Isentropic Coordinates

Based on reanalysis data for the years 1980–2001 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40 data), a climatology of tropospheric zonal-mean water vapor fields and fluxes in isentropic coordinates is presented. In the extratropical free troposphere, eddy fluxes dominate the meridional flux of specific humidity along isentropes. At all levels, isentropic eddy fluxes transport water vapor from the deep Tropics through the subtropics into the extratropics. Isentropic eddy fluxes of specific humidity diverge near the surface and in the tropical and subtropical free troposphere; they converge in the extratropical free troposphere. Isentropic mean advective fluxes of specific humidity play a secondary role in the meridional water vapor transport in the free troposphere; however, they dominate the meridional flux of specific humidity near the surface, where they transport water vapor equatorward and, in the solstice seasons, across the equator. Cross-isentropic mean advective fluxes of specific humidity are especially important in the Hadley circulation, in whose ascending branches they moisten and in whose descending branches they dry the free troposphere. Near the minima of zonal-mean relative humidity in the subtropical free troposphere, the divergence of the cross-isentropic mean advective flux of specific humidity in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is the dominant divergence in the mean specific humidity balance; it is primarily balanced by convergence of cross-isentropic turbulent fluxes that transport water vapor from the surface upward. Although there are significant isentropic eddy fluxes of specific humidity through the region of the subtropical relative humidity minima, their divergence near the minima is generally small compared with the divergence of cross-isentropic mean advective fluxes, implying that moistening by eddy transport from the Tropics into the region of the minima approximately balances drying by eddy transport into the extratropics. That drying by cross-isentropic mean subsidence near the subtropical relative humidity minima is primarily balanced by moistening by upward turbulent fluxes of specific humidity, likely in convective clouds, suggests cloud dynamics may play a central role in controlling the relative humidity of the subtropical free troposphere.

Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature

Simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model are used to investigate the scaling of high percentiles of the precipitation distribution (precipitation extremes) over a wide range of surface temperatures. At surface temperatures above roughly 295 K, precipitation extremes increase with warming in proportion to the increase in surface moisture, following what is termed Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. At lower temperatures, the rate of increase of precipitation extremes depends on the choice of cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme and the accumulation period, and it differs markedly from CC scaling in some cases. Precipitation extremes are found to be sensitive to the fall speeds of hydrometeors, and this partly explains the different scaling results obtained with different microphysics schemes. The results suggest that microphysics play an important role in determining the response of convective precipitation extremes to warming, particularly when ice- and mixed-phase processes are important.

Recovery of atmospheric flow statistics in a general circulation model without nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions

The closure problem of turbulence arises because nonlinear interactions among turbulent fluctuations (eddies) lead to an infinite hierarchy of moment equations for flow statistics. Here we demonstrate with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) that many atmospheric flow statistics can already be recovered if the hierarchy of moment equations is truncated at second order, corresponding to the elimination of nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions. Some, but not all, features of the general circulation remain the same. The atmospheric eddy kinetic energy spectrum retains a −3 power-law range even though this is usually explained in terms of an enstrophy cascade mediated by nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions. Our results suggest that it may be possible to construct fast general circulation models that solve for atmospheric flow statistics directly rather than via simulation of individual eddies and their interactions.

Moist Convection and the Thermal Stratification of the Extratropical Troposphere

Simulations with an aquaplanet general circulation model show that sensible and latent heat transport by large-scale eddies influences the extratropical thermal stratification over a wide range of climates, even in relatively warm climates with small meridional surface temperature gradients. Variations of the lapse rate toward which the parameterized moist convection in the model relaxes atmospheric temperature profiles demonstrate that the convective lapse rate only marginally affects the extratropical thermal stratification in Earth-like and colder climates. In warmer climates, the convective lapse rate does affect the extratropical thermal stratification, but the effect is still smaller than would be expected if moist convection alone controlled the thermal stratification. A theory for how large-scale eddies modify the thermal stratification of dry atmospheres is consistent with the simulation results for colder climates. For warmer and moister climates, however, theories and heuristics that have been proposed to account for the extratropical thermal stratification are not consistent with the simulation results. Theories for the extratropical thermal stratification will generally have to take transport of sensible and latent heat by large-scale eddies into account, but moist convection may only need to be taken into account regionally and in sufficiently warm climates.