Paul Arbon

Mass Gathering Medicine: A Predictive Model for Patient Presentation and Transport Rates

INTRODUCTION This paper reports on research into the influence of environmental factors (including crowd size, temperature, humidity, and venue type) on the number of patients and the patient problems presenting to first-aid services at large, public events in Australia. Regression models were developed to predict rates of patient presentation and of transportation-to-a-hospital for future mass gatherings. OBJECTIVE To develop a data set and predictive model that can be applied across venues and types of mass gathering events that is not venue or event specific. Data collected will allow informed event planning for future mass gatherings for which health care services are required. METHODS Mass gatherings were defined as public events attended by in excess of 25,000 people. Over a period of 12 months, 201 mass gatherings attended by a combined audience in excess of 12 million people were surveyed throughout Australia. The survey was undertaken by St. John Ambulance Australia personnel. The researchers collected data on the incidence and type of patients presenting for treatment and on the environmental factors that may influence these presentations. A standard reporting format and definition of event geography was employed to overcome the event-specific nature of many previous surveys. RESULTS There are 11,956 patients in the sample. The patient presentation rate across all event types was 0.992/1,000 attendees, and the transportation-to-hospital rate was 0.027/1,000 persons in attendance. The rates of patient presentations declined slightly as crowd sizes increased. The weather (particularly the relative humidity) was related positively to an increase in the rates of presentations. Other factors that influenced the number and type of patients presenting were the mobility of the crowd, the availability of alcohol, the event being enclosed by a boundary, and the number of patient-care personnel on duty. Three regression models were developed to predict presentation rates at future events. CONCLUSIONS Several features of the event environment influence patient presentation rates, and that the prediction of patient load at these events is complex and multifactorial. The use of regression modeling and close attention to existing historical data for an event can improve planning and the provision of health care services at mass gatherings.

The menstrual disorder of teenagers (MDOT) study: determining typical menstrual patterns and menstrual disturbance in a large population- based study of Australian teenagers

Please cite this paper as: Parker M, Sneddon A, Arbon P. The menstrual disorder of teenagers (MDOT) study: determining typical menstrual patterns and menstrual disturbance in a large population‐based study of Australian teenagers. BJOG 2010;117:185–192.

Mass-gathering medicine: a review of the evidence and future directions for research

A review of mass-gathering medicine literature published by the Journal Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, demonstrates the progressive development of our knowledge and understanding of the health effects of mass gatherings and the strategies that appear to contribute positively to effective health services delivery during these events. In addition, the growing need for research that can underpin a more evidence-based approach to planning for and managing these events is apparent. The call for less descriptive and more critical and conceptual analyses has been increasing in volume and, it is argued, the challenge now is to apply research frameworks that can contribute more effectively to science-based, medical practice.

The Development of Conceptual Models for Mass-Gathering Health

Mass gatherings are an increasingly common feature of modern society. However, descriptive papers that focus on a single event or event type, dominate the literature, and, while these contribute to our understanding of the patient care required at such events, they do not provide an adequate analysis of the health effects of the mass-gathering phenomenon itself. This paper argues for the development of conceptual models and a research template for mass-gathering research. The development of theory and conceptual models would promote a better understanding of the health effects of mass gatherings. Two preliminary conceptual models are presented as a means to encourage further debate about the dominant influences on the health of people where crowds gather and to promote less superficial forms of analysis of the research data. These conceptual models are based on the idea that mass-gathering health can be understood as an inter-relationship between three domains: (1) the biomedical; (2) the environmental; and (3) the psychosocial. Key features influence the rate of injury and illness and characterize each domain. These key features are more or less well-understood and combine to produce an effect--the patient presentation rate, and a response--the health plan. A new element, the latent potential for injury and illness, is introduced as a mechanism for describing a biomedical precursor state important in assessing health risk during mass gatherings.

Forecasting medical work at mass-gathering events: predictive model versus retrospective review

INTRODUCTION Mass-gathering events are dynamic and challenge traditional medical management systems. To improve the system for the provision of first aid at mass-gathering events, an evaluation of two models that assist in forecasting the number of patients presenting for first-aid services was conducted. METHOD A prospective evaluation of a recurrent, mass-gathering event was undertaken comparing predicted patient presentations and ambulance transfers generated by a predictive model developed by Arbon et al and a retrospective review of seven years of historical, event data as described by Zeitz et al. RESULTS Patient presentation rate (per 1,000 patrons) for this event was 1.6 and the transport to hospital rate (per 1,000 patrons) was 0.07. The retrospective review closely predicted the actual overall attendance. Both methods forecast the number of patients presenting on a daily basis. The prediction proved to be more accurate, on a day-by-day basis, using the Zeitz method. CONCLUSION The Arbon method is particularly useful for events where there is no or limited information about previous medical work. Retrospective review of data generated from specific events (Zeitz method) considers the unique and individual variability that can occur from event to event and is more accurate at predicting patient presentations when the data are available. Both methods have the potential to be used more frequently to adequately and efficiently plan for the resources required for specific events.

The role of the breast care nurse during treatment for early breast cancer: The patient’s perspective

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Women who are diagnosed with breast cancer require the support of a range of people during their treatment. Although the role of the breast care nurse in providing support has recently been investigated in several Australian studies the patients’ perspective on the role of the breast care nurse in Australian hospitals has not previously been described in detail. The aim of this paper is to explore patients’ perspectives on the role of the breast care nurse. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 18 women who had completed treatment for early breast cancer. The women were asked to describe their experiences from the time of diagnosis through to treatment completion. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. FINDINGS: Breast cancer patients repeatedly emphasised the importance of the role of their breast care nurses throughout their experience of breast cancer. The support that breast care nurses provided incorporated the following components: communication, rapport and an awareness of the women’s needs, availability, reassurance and practical information. CONCLUSION: This study provides an understanding of women’s perspectives on the role of breast care nurses and confirms that breast care nurses play an important support role during the experience of early breast cancer. Oncology clinics should focus on ensuring that all women who are diagnosed with breast cancer have adequate access to the support that breast care nurses are able to provide.

A survey of the practice of nurses' skills in Wenchuan earthquake disaster sites: implications for disaster training.

AIMS To determine nursing skills most relevant for nurses participating in disaster response medical teams; make recommendations to enhance training of nurses who will be first responders to a disaster site; to improve the capacity of nurses to prepare and respond to severe natural disasters. BACKGROUND Worldwide, nurses play a key role in disaster response teams at disaster sites. They are often not prepared for the challenges of dealing with mass casualties; little research exists into what basic nursing skills are required by nurses who are first responders to a disaster situation. This study assessed the most relevant disaster nursing skills of first responder nurses at the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster site. METHOD Data were collected in China in 2008 using a self-designed questionnaire, with 24 participants who had been part of the medical teams that were dispatched to the disaster sites. FINDINGS The top three skills essential for nurses were: intravenous insertion; observation and monitoring; mass casualty triage. The three most frequently used skills were: debridement and dressing; observation and monitoring; intravenous insertion. The three skills performed most proficiently were: intravenous insertion; observation and monitoring; urethral catheterization. The top three ranking skills most important for training were: mass casualty transportation; emergency management; haemostasis, bandaging, fixation, manual handling. CONCLUSION The core nursing skills for disaster response training are: mass casualty transportation; emergency management; haemostasis, bandaging, fixation, manual handling; observation and monitoring; mass casualty triage; controlling specific infection; psychological crisis intervention; cardiopulmonary resuscitation; debridement and dressing; central venous catheter insertion; patient care recording.

Australian nursing — moving forward? Competencies and the nursing profession

The introduction of national competencies for registration as a nurse in Australia has been met with great enthusiasm. While this development clearly brings some positive benefits the authors believe that competencies and competency development must be carefully monitored if Australian nurses are to avoid some of the pitfalls associated with this approach.

Reporting a research project on the potential of aged care nurse practitioners in the Australian Capital Territory

AIM This paper reports a project investigating the potential role of the nurse practitioner in aged care across residential, community and acute care venues in the Australian Capital Territory. BACKGROUND Australia, like many other countries, faces unprecedented challenges in the provision of health care. Escalating health care costs, an ageing population, increasing prevalence of comorbidities and chronic illnesses, inefficient health care delivery, changing models of health care and shifting professional role boundaries are factors that have contributed to the development of advanced practice roles for nursing. DESIGN This was a mixed methods study using multiple data sources. METHODS Student aged care nurse practitioners were examined across the continuum of care in the acute, community and residential aged care settings. The potential role of the nurse practitioner in these areas was evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively to identify a model of care to enhance the delivery of efficient and effective health care. RESULTS The project findings have demonstrated that there is potential for significant improvement in client outcomes arising from a transboundary aged care nurse practitioner model. The improved outcomes are associated with a decrease in acute hospital admissions for residential care clients, timely intervention for a range of common conditions and strengthened multidisciplinary approaches to care provision for older people. CONCLUSIONS Overall the project findings strongly support the potential of a transboundary aged care nurse practitioner role. This role would focus on skilled assessment, timely assessment and intervention, brokering around access to care and clinical leadership and education for nurses. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE This paper offers further evidence of support for the role of nurse practitioners in complementing existing health services and improving delivery of care.

A national framework for disaster health education in Australia.

INTRODUCTION Recent events have heightened awareness of disaster health issues and the need to prepare the health workforce to plan for and respond to major incidents. This has been reinforced at an international level by the World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine, which has proposed an international educational framework. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to outline the development of a national educational framework for disaster health in Australia. METHODS The framework was developed on the basis of the literature and the previous experience of members of a National Collaborative for Disaster Health Education and Research. The Collaborative was brought together in a series of workshops and teleconferences, utilizing a modified Delphi technique to finalize the content at each level of the framework and to assign a value to the inclusion of that content at the various levels. FRAMEWORK The framework identifies seven educational levels along with educational outcomes for each level. The framework also identifies the recommended contents at each level and assigns a rating of depth for each component. The framework is not intended as a detailed curriculum, but rather as a guide for educationalists to develop specific programs at each level. CONCLUSIONS This educational framework will provide an infrastructure around which future educational programs in Disaster Health in Australia may be designed and delivered. It will permit improved articulation for students between the various levels and greater consistency between programs so that operational responders may have a consistent language and operational approach to the management of major events.