Paul Atkinson

The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries

National accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview available of developments in national economies. They are of great interest to a wide range of users of economic information. These users, which include governments formulating budgetary policies, central banks making monetary policy decisions, businesses considering investment decisions and financial institutions making judgements concerning portfolio allocation, have needs which may differ in various respects. However, since their interest generally stems from the likelihood that they will make better decisions if they are well informed about economic developments, they all have a strong interest in the accuracy of national accounts statistics. This paper examines the reliability of preliminary quarterly national accounts statistics. In particular, it considers the longer-term behaviour of the provisional estimates to GDP growth and its main expenditure components through an examination of the revisions to those ...

Wirtschaftspolitik für die Eurozone

ZusammenfassungDie Eurokrise hat ihren Ursprung nicht nur in einer Staatsschuldenkrise. Sie wurde ebenfalls durch eine Zahlungsbilanzkrise verursacht. Ein breit gefächerter Ansatz in der Wirtschaftspolitik ist daher erforderlich, um die Eurozone auf einen nachhaltig stabilen und dynamischen Wachstumspfad zurückzubringen.AbstractAt the root of the euro crisis was not only a sovereign debt crisis but also a balance-of-payments crisis. A multi-faceted approach is required to restore sustainable growth and prevent a vicious circle of public and private sector deleveraging leading to weaker economic activity, which in turn results in a further deterioration in banks’ asset quality. Both governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) face challenges. Governments must make progress in restoring the health and resilience of the banking sector and introduce microeconomic reforms in product, services and labour markets to reduce divergent trends in competitiveness and productivity. Budgetary discipline must be respected, and the ECB should avoid any deflationary bias while stabilising inflation at or around two per cent for the euro area as a whole.

The reliability of quarterly national accounts in seven major countries: a user's perspective

National accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview available of developments in national economies. They are of great interest to a wide range of users of economic information. These users, which include governments formulating budgetary policies, central banks making monetary policy decisions, businesses considering investment decisions, and financial institutions making judgments concerning portfolio allocation have needs which may differ in various respects. However, since their interest generally stems from the likelihood that they will make better decisions if they are well informed about economic developments, they all have a strong interest in the accuracy of national accounts statistics. This paper examines the reliability of preliminary quarterly national accounts statistics. In particular, it considers the longer-term behavior of the provisional estimates to GDP growth and its main expenditure components through an examination of the revisions to those estimates. It covers the seven largest OECD countries and, as such, updates and extends upon previous OECD analysis on the topic. Overall, the results are broadly similar to the earlier work; that preliminary estimates for output growth have not been statistically biased, although the average size of revisions has been large but smaller than those exhibited by the demand components of GDP.

Taux d'intérêt réels et perspectives de croissance durable

Ces dernieres annees, le niveau des taux dinteret reels est apparu relativement eleve dans la plupart des pays de lOCDE. Cela na pas empeche la reprise economique de se developper (a un rythme plus rapide aux Etats-Unis et au Japon quen Europe) pas plus quil ny a eu, semble-t-il, deffets reellement defavorables sur les investissements des entreprises, en forte progression dans certains pays (les Etats-Unis et le Royaume-Uni par exemple). Cependant, on peut craindre que la persistance de taux reels eleves ne contribue a ralentir lactivite economique. En outre, le niveau eleve des taux dinteret -- tant nominaux que reels -- a aggrave les difficultes dun certain nombre de pays en developpement lourdement endettes, affectant ainsi defavorablement les exportations des pays de lOCDE et menacant la solidite du systeme bancaire international. De ce fait, cette situation constitue un sujet de preoccupation quasi general. Letude qui suit aborde une serie de questions soulevees par le ...

La conduite de la politique monétaire dans la phase actuelle de reprise économique

Apres la longue recession qui a suivi le second choc petrolier, la reprise economique est actuellement amorcee dans la plupart des grands pays de lOCDE. Elle est dune importance variable selon les pays : si les Etats-Unis connaissent dores et deja une croissance rapide de la production et une reduction sensible du chomage, on nobserve dans certains pays europeens que les tout premiers signes dun redressement. Neanmoins, la situation semble devoir sameliorer dans presque tous les pays. En dehors de lAmerique du Nord, toutefois, on continue de craindre que la reprise ne se revele fragile dans le cadre de la politique actuellement suivie. De meme, on se demande, surtout aux Etats-Unis, si la reprise ne se developpera pas trop rapidement, ce qui relancerait linflation. Dans la conjoncture actuelle, le probleme qui se pose aux autorites est de faire en sorte que ni lun ni lautre de ces risques eventuels ne se materialise afin dassurer une periode dexpansion soutenue. Letude ...