Paul Caplat

Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts

Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.

A standardized set of metrics to assess and monitor tree invasions

Abstract Scientists, managers, and policy-makers need functional and effective metrics to improve our understanding and management of biological invasions. Such metrics would help to assess progress towards management goals, increase compatibility across administrative borders, and facilitate comparisons between invasions. Here we outline key characteristics of tree invasions (status, abundance, spatial extent, and impact), discuss how each of these characteristics changes with time, and examine potential metrics to describe and monitor them. We recommend quantifying tree invasions using six metrics: (a) current status in the region; (b) potential status; (c) the number of foci requiring management; (d) area of occupancy (AOO) (i.e. compressed canopy area or net infestation); (e) extent of occurrence (EOO) (i.e. range size or gross infestation); and (f) observations of current and potential impact. We discuss how each metric can be parameterised (e.g. we include a practical method for classifying the current stage of invasion for trees following Blackburn’s unified framework for biological invasions); their potential management value (e.g. EOO provides an indication of the area over which management is needed); and how they can be used in concert (e.g. combining AOO and EOO can provide insights into invasion dynamics; and we use potential status and threat together to develop a simple risk analysis tool). Based on these metrics, we propose a standardized template for reporting tree invasions that we hope will facilitate cross-species and inter-regional comparisons. While we feel this represents a valuable step towards standardized reporting, there is an urgent need to develop more consistent metrics for impact and threat, and for many specific purposes additional metrics are still needed (e.g. detectability is required to assess the feasibility of eradication).

Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.

Modeling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants

Invasive plants cause substantial economic and environmental damage throughout the world. However, eradication of most invasive species is impossible and, in some cases, undesirable. An alternative is to slow the spread of an invasive species, which can delay impacts or reduce their extent. We identify three main areas where models are used extensively in the study of plant spread and its management: (i) identifying the key drivers of spread to better target management, (ii) determining the role spatial structure of landscapes plays in plant invasions, and (iii) integrating management structures and limitations to guide the implementation of control measures. We show how these three components have been approached in the ecological literature as well as their potential for improving management practices. Particularly, we argue that scientists can help managers of invasive species by providing information about plant invasion on which managers can base their decisions (i and ii) and by modeling the decision process through optimization and agent‐based models (iii). Finally, we show how these approaches can be articulated for integrative studies.

Landscape patterns and agriculture: modelling the long-term effects of human practices on Pinus sylvestris spatial dynamics (Causse Mejean, France)

This paper focuses on understanding human impact on landscape. Both ecological and human practices are analysed as interacting processes. An agent-based model integrating biological and historical knowledge is used to analyse the pattern of Scots Pine encroachment in a French Mediterranean upland. In the STIPA model, pine trees are autonomous agents and a cellular automaton simulates land-use. We test the effects of shifting cultivation on tree establishment at the landscape scale. This allows us to understand how agropastoral practices patterned this area from the 17th to 19th century: simulations show the importance of shifting cultivation in limiting woodland progression. Fallow duration linked to environmental heterogeneity is a significant factor for explaining pine dynamics and landscape patterning at the scale of the study region. We put this result in perspective with current rangeland management policies that often consider grazing as the most relevant tool for open landscape maintenance. Our results also show the importance of taking into account time-scale effects when linking landscape patterns to agricultural systems.

Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Potentially significant shifts in the geographical patterns of vegetation are an expected result of climate change. However, the importance of local processes (e.g., dispersal, competition, or disturbance) has been often ignored in climate change modeling. We develop an individual-based simulation approach to assess how these mechanisms affect migration rate. We simulate the northward progression of a theoretical tree species when climate change makes northern habitat suitable. We test how the rate of progression is affected by (1) competition with a resident species, (2) interactions with disturbance regimes, (3) species dispersal kernel, and (4) the intensity of climate change over time. Results reveal a strong response of species’ expansion rate to the presence of a local competitor, as well as nonlinear effects of disturbance. We discuss these results in light of current knowledge of northern forest dynamics and results found in the climatic research literature.

Cross-scale management strategies for optimal control of trees invading from source plantations

Biological invasion by non-native tree species can transform landscapes, and as a consequence, has received growing attention from researchers and managers alike. This problem is driven primarily by the naturalisation and invasion of tree species escaping from cultivation or forestry plantations. Furthermore, these invasions can be strongly influenced by the land-use matrix of the surrounding region, specific management of the source populations, and environmental conditions that influence seed dispersal or habitat quality for the invader. A major unresolved challenge for managing tree invasions in landscapes is how management should be deployed to contain or slow the spread of invading populations from one or more sources (e.g. plantations). We develop a spatial simulation model to test: (1) how to best prioritise the control of invasive tree populations spatially to slow or contain the biological invader when habitat quality varies in the landscape, and (2) how to allocate control effort among different management units when trees spread from many source populations. We first show that to slow down spread effectively, management strategy is less important than management effort. We then identify the conditions affecting the relative performance of different management strategies. At the landscape scale, targeting peripheral stands consistently yielded the best results whereas at the regional scale, management strategies needed to account for both habitat quality and tree life-history. Overall, our findings demonstrate that knowledge of how habitat affects tree life-history stages can improve management to contain or slow tree invasions by improving the spatial match between management effort and efficacy.

Integrating ecological knowledge, public perception and urgency of action into invasive species management.

Recently Prévot-Julliard and colleagues presented a concept paper on biological conservation strategies using exotic species as a case study. They emphasized the difficulty of integrating conservation into a broad picture that accounts for public perception as well as scientific knowledge. We support this general call for better integration of society in conservation research, but we believe that the original framework might misguide conservation practices if wrongly interpreted. Our objective is to complement their paper and correct a few misleading points, by showing that (1) for regions of high endemicity “reservation” may be the best conservation practice, and does not prevent public participation, (2) aiming for broad societal agreement is valuable, but in some cases risky, and always complex, and (3) calling a harmful invasive species harmful shouldn’t be an issue. The Australian context provides us with many cases of the labeling of exotic species as harmful or not, using inputs from scientists, industry, and the public. Integration of social and scientific points of view can only improve conservation on the ground if it allows managers to use the ecological, economic and social impacts of exotic species to prioritize conservation actions in an operative way.

Area mediated shifts in bird community composition : A study on a fragmented Mediterranean grassland

The effects of habitat fragmentation on birds have often been studied in forest specialist species. Here we aimed at comparing the response of open habitat birds within a range of habitat specialization. The study area was a Mediterranean pseudo-steppe, designated as important for conservation yet fragmented by tree encroachment. We defined bird species dependency on steppe-like habitat by a correspondence analysis, allowing us to distinguish between specialists, generalists and scrubland species. We studied species abundance in relation to fragment area, testing whether species representation in fragments differed from those in continuous habitat. This analysis showed a contrasted response to fragment size between “open habitat” specialist species and generalist ones. Open habitat species were under-represented in the smallest fragments, while generalist were over-represented in small fragments in comparison to their distribution in continuous habitats. We discuss how these results can be linked to species habitat requirements. We find that scrubland species seem to be favoured by encroachment of woody vegetation, as they are able to explore and use the wooded matrix; however specialist species are restricted to open patches and are sensitive to a reduction in patch size. This allows us to predict how different species can exhibit a different sensitivity to habitat fragmentation.

Reproductive ecology of Pinus nigra in an invasive population: individual- and population-level variation in seed production and timing of seed release

Abstract• ContextThe details of fecundity, such as its distribution and timing, can have important consequences for forest dynamics.• AimsWe detail two aspects of the reproductive ecology of an exotic population of Pinus nigra in New Zealand. We compare our findings with those reported for P. nigra in southern France and Britain.• MethodsWe describe variation in fecundity, both within the population and through time, and relate seed release to climatic conditions.• ResultsOn average, trees entered reproduction earlier than reported in European studies. Although the mean number of cones per tree varied through time, the distribution of cone production among trees was consistently best described using a negative binomial or mixed gamma-exponential distribution. Both distributions are right skewed and trees maintained fecundity hierarchies over time, suggesting that some trees in the population have much higher lifetime reproduction than others. We found that trees released significantly more seeds when conditions were dry and windy, potentially increasing the proportion of seeds that disperse long distances.• ConclusionsRight-skewed fecundity distributions have the potential to slow spread rates, while preferentially releasing seeds in dry windy conditions is likely to increase spread rates. The net effect of these processes is an open question.