Paul Deane

Integrating agriculture and energy to assess GHG emissions reduction: a methodological approach

Agriculture is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic global GHG emissions. This significant share highlights the fundamental importance of the agricultural sector in the global GHG emissions reduction challenge. This article develops and tests a methodology for the integration of agricultural and energy systems modelling. The goal of the research is to extend an energy systems modelling approach to agriculture in order to provide richer insights into the dynamics and interactions between the two (e.g. in competition for land-use). We build Agri-TIMES, an agricultural systems module using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, to model the effect of livestock emissions and explore emissions reduction options. The research focuses on Ireland, which is an interesting test case for two reasons: first, agriculture currently accounts for about 30% of Irelands GHG emissions, significantly higher than other industrialized countries yet comparable with global levels (here including emissions associated with other land-use change and forestation); second, Ireland is both a complete and reasonably sized agricultural system to act as a test case for this new approach. This article describes the methodology used, the data requirements, and technical assumptions made to facilitate the modelling. It also presents results to illustrate the approach and provide associated initial insights. Policy relevance Most of the policy focus with regard to climate mitigation targets has been on reducing energy-related CO2 emissions, which is understandable as they represent by far the largest source of emissions. Non-energy-related GHG emissions – largely from agriculture, industrial processes, and waste – have received significantly less attention in policy discourse. Going forward, however, if significant cuts are made in energy-related CO2 emissions, the role of non-energy-related GHG emissions will grow in importance. It is therefore crucial that climate mitigation analyses and strategies are not limited to the energy system. This article shows the value of using integrated energy and agriculture techno-economic modelling techniques to draw evidence for new comprehensive climate policy strategies able to discern between the full range of technical solutions available. It enables the production of economy-wide least-cost climate mitigation pathways.

The Effect of Increased Transmission and Storage in an Interconnected Europe: An Application to France and Ireland

A longstanding goal of the European Union (EU) is to promote efficient trading between price zones via electricity interconnection to achieve a single electricity market between the EU countries. This paper uses a power system model (PLEXOS-EU) to simulate one vision of the 2030 EU electricity market based on European Commission studies to determine the effects of a new interconnector between France and the Single Electricity Market of Ireland and Northern Ireland (SEM). We use the same tool to understand the effects of investment in storage, and the effects of the interaction between storage and additional interconnection. Our results show that both investments in interconnection and storage reduce wholesale electricity prices in France and Ireland as well as reduce net revenues of thermal generators in most scenarios in both countries. However, France is only marginally affected by the new interconnector. Renewable generators see a modest increase in net revenues. The project has the potential for a positive impact on welfare in Ireland if costs are shared between countries and remain below 45 million €/year for the scenarios examined. The owners of the new interconnector between France and SEM see increased net revenues in the scenarios without storage. When storage is included in the system, the new interconnector becomes less profitable.

Impacts of Inter-annual Wind and Solar Variations on the European Power System

Summary Weather-dependent renewable energy resources are playing a key role in decarbonizing electricity. There is a growing body of analysis on the impacts of wind and solar variability on power system operation. Existing studies tend to use a single or typical year of generation data, which overlooks the substantial year-to-year fluctuation in weather, or to only consider variation in the meteorological inputs, which overlooks the complex response of an interconnected power system. Here, we address these gaps by combining detailed continent-wide modeling of Europes future power system with 30 years of historical weather data. The most representative single years are 1989 and 2012, but using multiple years reveals a 5-fold increase in Europes inter-annual variability of CO2 emissions and total generation costs from 2015 to 2030. We also find that several metrics generalize to linear functions of variable renewable penetration: CO2 emissions, curtailment of renewables, wholesale prices, and total system costs.

Decarbonizing the EU Energy System

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was a historically significant landmark agreement that covers almost all of the world’s emissions. In line with scientific findings, the EU’s objective (in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries as a group) is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80%–95% by 2050 compared to 1990. This calls for a deep, rapid transformation of the energy system and an assessment of the role of policy instruments such as carbon pricing for this transition. The challenge of decarbonization is also set against the context of a limited carbon budget and the concept of “unburnable carbon,” which has implications not only for Europe but for the globe.

Curtailment: An Option for Cost-Efficient Integration of Variable Renewable Generation?

According to European Directive 2009/28/EC, renewable energies enjoy preferential treatment in the electricity grid. However, there will be times when it is not possible to accommodate all priority dispatch generation, such as from wind and solar energy, while maintaining the safe operation of the power system. The security-based curtailment of renewables should be minimized due to European directives. This chapter analyzes the future projections of curtailment needs because of security limits as well as the economic impact of curtailment in selected EU Member States. The use of renewable curtailment not only for grid security but also for economic reasons can potentially contribute to a significant reduction of investment needs in both grid and storage extension. For that purpose, the power output of renewable energy plants would have to be limited in some hours of the year, but their energy production over the year would only decrease by a small percentage.

Need for Flexibility and Potential Solutions

With an increasing penetration of variable renewables in the EU in recent years, the flexibility of its power system is of critical importance. In this chapter, we first assess flexibility considerations in the past, prior to market liberalization. We then analyze the impact of increasing penetration of renewables on flexibility requirements. Further, we identify existing options to provide this flexibility. Finally, we use model-based analysis, we quantitatively assess potential solutions to deploying temporary production and storage. Business models and potential evolutions of the legislative framework associated with the different solutions are also proposed.

Gas Security of Supply in the European Union

The EU remains widely dependent on external gas supplies, with imports representing 70% of its consumption in 2013. Member States have different import profiles with divergent levels of dependency ...

Chapter 13 – Conclusions and Outlook

The EU energy landscape is changing, driven by the need to reduce emissions and increase security of supply. Policy instruments to encourage decarbonization such as carbon pricing should include technology-based and behavior-based instruments to facilitate this transition to a low-carbon economy. The impact of available fossil fuel resources in the EU may still raise questions around how Member States reconcile their commitments to the 2°C goal with their seeking to produce all indigenous fossil fuel reserves (e.g., as in the UK). While many EU Member States have very limited hydrocarbon resources, shale gas production could significantly improve security of gas supply and reduce energy dependence in Europe. However, the conditions of extraction are less favorable in Europe than in the US. Finally, for aviation, the main obstacle to the widespread uptake of biofuels is not due to technical constraints but rather is economic in nature.

Chapter 9 – Introduction

Following on from current energy trends in Europe, this section portrays the changing landscape of energy supply in the EU by examining current import dependencies and assesses options for both indigenous production and imported hydrocarbons to meet future energy needs. The policy drivers which shape this landscape, particularly energy and climate policy and the need to reduce emissions from fossil fuels are presented in the context of the EU ambition to decarbonize the future energy system. The section further examines the aviation sector which is one of the most challenging areas for decarbonization, before presenting an overall outlook and conclusion.

Storage Solutions and Their Value

Energy storage has increasingly come into focus as a key transformational technology in the energy system. This is driven by several factors, including: (1) the increased electrification of the energy system and the associated changes in demand patterns, driven by new loads such as electric vehicles and heat pumps; (2) the decarbonization of the power system and the associated increases in the penetration of variable renewable electricity production, and related security of supply concerns. In this chapter we explore the evolving role of storage in the EU energy system—both at present and in the future. This includes proposed changes in current legislative frameworks to support the diffusion of storage technologies—a key enabler in the EU’s transition to a reliable, flexible, and affordable energy system.