Paul E. Dodds

Characterising the Evolution of Energy System Models Using Model Archaeology

In common with other types of complex models, energy system models have opaque structures, making it difficult to understand both changes between model versions and the extent of changes described in research papers. In this paper, we develop the principle of model archaeology as a formal method to quantitatively examine the balance and evolution of energy system models, through the ex post analysis of both model inputs and outputs using a series of metrics. These metrics help us to understand how models are developed and used and are a powerful tool for effectively targeting future model improvements. The usefulness of model archaeology is demonstrated in a case study examining the UK MARKAL model. We show how model development has been influenced by the interests of the UK government and the research projects funding model development. Despite these influences, there is clear evidence of a strategy to balance model complexity and accuracy when changes are made. We identify some important long-term trends including higher technology capital costs in subsequent model versions. Finally, we discuss how model archaeology can improve the transparency of research model studies.

The Role of Energy Storage in Low-Carbon Energy Systems

There could be a revolution in the role of energy storage as energy systems are decarbonized. Novel energy storage technologies are expected to make an important contribution in the future, particularly in the event of heat and transport electrification or if intermittent renewables and nuclear come to dominate electricity generation. Numerous energy storage technologies have been proposed to store excess electricity, with electrical energy conversion to mechanical, thermal, gravitational, electrochemical, and chemical energy for storage, and many of these technologies are classified in this chapter. Energy storage technologies are complicated and poorly understood relative to most low-carbon technologies. A series of metrics have been proposed to compare storage technologies, but understanding how to integrate energy storage into low-carbon energy systems remains a difficult challenge for several reasons. The value of storage to an energy system depends on the electricity generation portfolio, particularly the relative amounts of inflexible and flexible generation. Existing energy system, dispatch, and network models are either not broad enough to examine all energy storage and alternative options, or have insufficient temporal resolution to realistically portray the need for and performance of storage technologies. Innovation is required to reduce technology costs. There is a dearth of knowledge on public attitudes toward energy storage technologies. Finally, even if the long-term value of energy storage could be demonstrated, existing electricity markets are designed for incumbent systems and market regulation would need to be adapted to reflect the technological, economic, and social value of energy storage to an energy system. Further R&D and a better understanding of the integration of energy storage technologies are vital to provide information to underpin future market design and regulation to realize the value of energy storage.