Paul Gallimore

The role of investor sentiment in property investment decisions

Property decision-making is typically characterized as a structured rational process, using factual data and leading to optimal decision-making. To augment, or substitute for deficiencies in, such data, property investors may turn to perceptions of investor or market sentiment. Reliance on sentiment in the wider financial markets is, however, regarded as suboptimal behaviour that leads to mispricing. Discussion of these contrasting views of sentiment is coupled with the results from a survey of property investment decision-makers. These results indicate that investor sentiment is an important factor in property decision-making, despite its neglect in formal explanations of property market functioning. The conception of investor sentiment held by survey respondents is explored and confirmed as different to the concept applied in the wider financial markets.

Decision making in small property companies

The literature on investor decision‐making behaviour in property investment is sparse, loosely integrated and focused principally upon large, institutional investors. It reflects rational, normative models that treat investor behaviour as highly structured and formalised. By contrast, behavioural psychology suggests that individuals frequently act sub‐optimally. These ideas have been explored in financial decision making and have been found in the actions of property valuers and property lenders. This paper addresses this neglected area of property investment decision‐making. Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with a sample of property investment directors of smaller property companies. The interviews investigate the decision‐making structures in these companies, the process by which investment strategy is formulated, the investment “screening” process and the determinants of purchase/sell decisions. The findings are discussed and related to the literature on decision making under uncertainty.

The modelling of housing submarkets

This paper is concerned as to whether it is more appropriate to use aggregate or disaggregate models in forecasting house prices using hedonic modelling. It is accepted that the implicit pricing of some of the attributes is not stable between locations, property types and ages but it is argued that this can be effectively modelled with an aggregate method. The models are developed using a dataset of nearly 18,000 transactions in the UK Midlands region in 1994. The comparative performance of these models is then considered using two approaches. Chow tests of the error differences between actual price and the price predicted by the models suggest that the submarket models lead to statistically significant, though small, improvements. A second approach, using comparison of the root mean square errors, is conducted on the models’ forecasts for a 10 per cent sample of nearly 2,000 transactions excluded from the modelling process. This shows little practical difference in the forecasting ability between the two approaches. Great care needs to be taken over sample size if a disaggregate model is used.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on softer" signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

Residential valuation behaviour in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand

This paper investigates the valuation processes employed by United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), and New Zealand (NZ) residential valuation experts. Professional appraisers from all three countries participated in a series of valuation experiments that revealed (i) switching from familiar to unfamiliar property settings did not alter valuation behaviour, (ii) valuation behaviour was consistently non-normative, and (iii) the processes employed by US appraisers differed from those of UK experts but not NZ experts. These behavioural differences are attributed to differences in the normative training and business cultures of the countries. Descriptive models of valuation behaviour are developed and compared.

Multicultural examination of valuation behaviour

A series of experiments were conducted to examine valuation behaviour in the UK, the USA, and New Zealand (NZ). Professional valuers from all three countries participated in the study whose findings support the notion that the US normative model is cognitively demanding and that greater departures from it result in reduced cognitive effort. The study also concluded that subjects from cultures requiring disclosure (USA and NZ) examined a significantly greater number of sales than did subjects from the UK where disclosure is uncommon. Finally, while valuers perhaps ought to increase sales search in unfamiliar markets, this research revealed no evidence that they do so. These findings are consistent with the need to seek cognitive efficiency and reduce cognitive effort even at the expense of performance quality.

Public and professional perceptions of HVOTL risks: the problem of circularity

Property valuers in the UK are cautioned to consider the possible impact of public perception of the risk of living near high voltage overhead power transmission lines (HVOTLs). Direct evidence of this impact should be found in transaction prices of properties close to HVOTLs. These transactions, however, will likely have been conditional upon valuation advice that will have been formulated with the HVOTL-risk caution in mind. There exists, therefore a potential for circularity, the likelihood of which will increase if valuers perceive these risks differently to the public. Evidence is presented to suggest that such a difference may well exist. The implications of this finding for the specific problem and for a wider understanding of the valuation process are both discussed.

Risk assessment in PFI schemes for primary health care

This paper identifies that the methods used to quantify the financial risk of appraisals of private sector projects for primary health care development have been inadequate. Data was collected and analysed from private developers on 18 schemes, varying by scale and location. It is argued that this is important for those involved with facilities management as well as those directly involved with the financial risk appraisal of a PFI/PPP project. Financial risks are more likely to arise when certain build designs are used which make projects more susceptible to particular risks. The paper makes recommendations on the appraisal of future projects for value for money reflecting the risk transfer achieved and devising a common, systematic format to provide consistency and standardisation. It concludes, however, that systems should not be formulated which might act as disincentives to the private sector, or impose increased workloads on the public sector in assessing proposals.

Experience and real estate investment decision-making: a process-tracing investigation

This study investigates the impact of experience upon trained behaviours in real estate investment decision‐making. In a controlled experiment design, two groups of subjects, experts and novices, conduct an evaluation and reach a decision about two investment options. Using a process‐tracing technique, each subject’s behaviour is observed and recorded. Differences between the groups are discovered in relation to some behaviour characteristics, but experience appears not to impact all behaviours. These findings are discussed in relation to the current absence of a universal normative model of real estate investment decision‐making. In an associated component of the study, the belief that monetary compensation is needed in order to render valid results from studies such as this is tested. We find this not to be the case.

The influence of a decision support tool on real estate valuations

An appraisal task involves the rendering of market value, an unobservable and hypothetical construct. Direct feedback against this objective is typically not possible, so alternative feedback such as confirmation of previous appraised values may be employed. This may alter the appraiser’s perception of the valuation objective leading to divergence from the appraisal normative model. The real estate literature suggests appraisers have been susceptible to the influence of previous appraised values, often resulting in biased valuations. This research focuses on the efficacy of a decision support tool in eliminating or subduing this bias in the appraisal process.