Paul Gray

Telecommuting - An Alternative to Urban Transportation Congestion

An interdisciplinary research program of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, has investigated the potential impact of substituting telecommunications and computer technology for certain forms of urban transportation [1]. Emphasis has been placed upon the use of these technologies to alleviate the massive twice-daily peak commuting loads imposed upon most major American cities. The primary means by which these technologies will be used is to allow information industry workers to perform their jobs at work centers scattered throughout each city, close to their homes, rather than commuting long distances to work. A basic premise is made that this reorientation of urban work patterns will not occur unless the technological substitutes can be shown to be both economical and effective. The results of a study of a major insurance firm located in the Los Angeles central business district are presented. The study evaluated the present transportation patterns, population distribution, and business contact requirements of a major administrative division of this firm. These commuting and communicating patterns were then used as the basis for assessing the feasibility of the use of various levels of telecommunications and computer technology for allowing the substitution for commuting by telecommuting. Alternative telecommuting network designs were formulated and evaluated with respect to their ability to facilitate current work functions. Costs of network installation and operation were compared with the present costs of commuting. It is concluded that present communications and computer technology, in terms of off-the-shelf hardware and services, can offer an economical substitute for commuting.

Analysis of crime control strategies

Abstract An important problem in the selection of crime control programs is the choice among broad crime control strategies. This paper presents a Markov approach to the study of one important aspect of the analysis of crime control strategies—the characterization of the criminal population. Results indicate that persons with previous arrest records may commit a somewhat smaller proportion of the common crimes of robbery, burglary, larceny over

The personal computer and society: a technology assessment

50, and assault than is indicated by rearrest data.

The economics of simulation

The University of Southern California has initiated a technology assessment of the personal computer. The assessment is partially supported by the National Science Foundation. The ultimate purpose of a technology assessment is to help provide a more human future with less shock. This technology assessment is directed toward examining the potential future impacts of personal computers and identifying the public policy issues associated with these possibilities. This article summarizes the major factors that we intend to explore during the assessment.

Evaluation of prison systems

This paper presents a framework for decision making about simulations before committing resources. The viewpoint is that of a manager who must decide whether to solve a problem by simulation or by some other means. A decision-analysis type model is introduced to allow the manager to determine the minimum cost method of simulation within the operating and policy constraints of his organization. Two case examples using the metholology are presented.

A detective allocation model

Abstract Models are developed for the flow of prisoners through a state prison system. These models are used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative correctional programs. Results based on the Georgia prison system are presented.

Personal computers and society

Abstract Assuming that the primary purpose of investigative detectives is to solve cases (make arrests), a mathematical model is developed that allocates detectives among divisions in large urban police department so as to maximize the city-wide clearance rate.

Communication--A Comprehensive Model for Long Range Academic Strategies

The University of Southern California (USC) has initiated a technology assessment of the personal computer, partially supported by the US National Science Foundation. The ultimate purpose of a technology assessment is to help provide a more human future with less of a shock. The technology assessment at USC is directed towards examining the potential impacts of personal computers and identifying the public policy issues associated with these possibilities. This report explains the major factors being explored during the assessment.

A decision-tree framework for estimating the costs of simulation

The interest in using management science models for higher education manpower planning in recent years has led to the application of Markov chains, networks, goal programming, and other familiar modeling techniques. Goal programming appears intuitively appealing because educational objectives often involve satisficing rather than optimizing. It must be assumed that the purpose of the Walters, Mangold, Haran paper (Walters, A., J. Mangold, E. G. P. Haran. 1976. A comprehensive planning model for long-range academic strategies. Management Sci. 22 (7) 727-738.) was not simply to demonstrate that goal programming is of interest for this planning problem, since Schroeder (Schroeder, R. G. 1974. Resource planning in university management by goal programming. Oper. Res. 22 (July-August) 700-710.) published such a demonstration two years previously.

Technical Note-The Shirt Allocation Problem

This paper presents a framework for analyzing the anticipated costs of simulation before committing resources. The viewpoint taken is that of a manager who must decide whether to solve a problem by simu lation or some other means. The decision-analysis model that is formulated allows the manager to deter mine the minimum-cost method of simulation within the operating and policy constraints of his firm. Two examples are discussed.