Paul J. Beggs

Effect of temperature on mortality during the six warmer months in Sydney, Australia, between 1993 and 2004

Studies of heat-related mortality have been predominantly based on analyses of underlying cause of death as the single indicator of a populations vulnerability to high temperatures. Examination of both underlying and associated causes of death could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the population at risk. This study analyzes the impact of high temperatures on mortality in Sydney, Australia, during the warmer six months (October-March) between 1993 and 2004, using the underlying and associated cause of death due to all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease. Some mortality datasets were also divided into two age groups, 0-64 and 65+. A generalized linear model assuming negative binomial distribution was constructed for the daily mortality counts using daily maximum temperature and hourly maximum concentrations of ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) as covariates. With the air pollution terms in a model, the change in mortality was estimated to be between 4.5% and 12.1% for a 10 degrees C increase in maximum daily temperature, depending on mortality dataset. When air pollutants were removed from a model, the above mortality percentages changed by -1.1% to 0.9%. When both underlying and associated causes of death were considered, the effect remained the same or became lower. Maximum temperature has been found to have a significant effect on mortality in Sydney, with PM10 and O3 confounding the association.

Molecular epidemiology, spatiotemporal analysis, and ecology of sporadic human cryptosporidiosis in Australia

ABSTRACT Parasites from the Cryptosporidium genus are the most common cause of waterborne disease around the world. Successful management and prevention of this emerging disease requires knowledge of the diversity of species causing human disease and their zoonotic sources. This study employed a spatiotemporal approach to investigate sporadic human cryptosporidiosis in New South Wales, Australia, between January 2008 and December 2010. Analysis of 261 human fecal samples showed that sporadic human cryptosporidiosis is caused by four species; C. hominis, C. parvum, C. andersoni, and C. fayeri. Sequence analysis of the gp60 gene identified 5 subtype families and 31 subtypes. Cryptosporidium hominis IbA10G2 and C. parvum IIaA18G3R1 were the most frequent causes of human cryptosporidiosis in New South Wales, with 59% and 16% of infections, respectively, attributed to them. The results showed that infections were most prevalent in 0- to 4-year-olds. No gender bias or regional segregation was observed between the distribution of C. hominis and C. parvum infections. To determine the role of cattle in sporadic human infections in New South Wales, 205 cattle fecal samples were analyzed. Four Cryptosporidium species were identified, C. hominis, C. parvum, C. bovis, and C. ryanae. C. parvum subtype IIaA18G3R1 was the most common cause of cryptosporidiosis in cattle, with 47% of infections attributed to it. C. hominis subtype IbA10G2 was also identified in cattle isolates.

Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology

Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earths increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure.

Spatial analysis of heat-related mortality among the elderly between 1993 and 2004 in Sydney, Australia.

This study analyzed the geographical patterns of heat-related mortality among the population aged 65 and over within the metropolitan area of Sydney, Australia between 1993 and 2004, and evaluated the role of some physical and socio-demographic risk factors associated with it. The effect of temperature on all-cause mortality during unusually hot days was investigated using spatial analytic techniques, such as cluster analysis and spatial regression analysis. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were used to investigate the role of daily average temperature, ozone (O(3)) and particulate matter of diameter less than 10 microm (PM(10)) at the regions that showed a significant increase in mortality on unusually hot days. Spatial variation in mortality on unusually hot days was observed among the population 65 and over. Elderly people living within 5-20 km south-west and west of the Sydney Central Business District (CBD) were found to be more vulnerable. However, analysis using GLMs showed temperature to be a significant modifier of daily mortality in the region to the south-west of the CBD only. O(3) and PM(10) were found to be non-significant factors in the regions where air pollutants were studied. Socio-economic status and the proportion of vegetation or developed land in each Statistical Local Area (SLA) were also not a significant factor explaining the increased mortality. A combination of social and environmental factors may be at play. Our results suggest an effect of temperature on mortality of the elderly population in Sydney Statistical Division at the SLA level. More spatially-based research would be beneficial once climate datasets with improved spatial coverage become available.

Adaptation to Impacts of Climate Change on Aeroallergens and Allergic Respiratory Diseases

Climate change has the potential to have many significant impacts on aeroallergens such as pollen and mould spores, and therefore related diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis. This paper critically reviews this topic, with a focus on the potential adaptation measures that have been identified to date. These are aeroallergen monitoring; aeroallergen forecasting; allergenic plant management; planting practices and policies; urban/settlement planning; building design and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC); access to health care and medications; education; and research.

Molecular Epidemiology and Spatial Distribution of a Waterborne Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak in Australia

ABSTRACT Cryptosporidiosis is one of the most common waterborne diseases reported worldwide. Outbreaks of this gastrointestinal disease, which is caused by the Cryptosporidium parasite, are often attributed to public swimming pools and municipal water supplies. Between the months of January and April in 2009, New South Wales, Australia, experienced the largest waterborne cryptosporidiosis outbreak reported in Australia to date. Through the course of the contamination event, 1,141 individuals became infected with Cryptosporidium. Health authorities in New South Wales indicated that public swimming pool use was a contributing factor in the outbreak. To identify the Cryptosporidium species responsible for the outbreak, fecal samples from infected patients were collected from hospitals and pathology companies throughout New South Wales for genetic analyses. Genetic characterization of Cryptosporidium oocysts from the fecal samples identified the anthroponotic Cryptosporidium hominis IbA10G2 subtype as the causative parasite. Equal proportions of infections were found in males and females, and an increased susceptibility was observed in the 0- to 4-year age group. Spatiotemporal analysis indicated that the outbreak was primarily confined to the densely populated coastal cities of Sydney and Newcastle.

The Macroecology of Airborne Pollen in Australian and New Zealand Urban Areas

The composition and relative abundance of airborne pollen in urban areas of Australia and New Zealand are strongly influenced by geographical location, climate and land use. There is mounting evidence that the diversity and quality of airborne pollen is substantially modified by climate change and land-use yet there are insufficient data to project the future nature of these changes. Our study highlights the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in Australian and New Zealand urban areas in a systematic, standardised, and sustained way, and provides a framework for targeting the most clinically significant taxa in terms of abundance, allergenic effects and public health burden.

Transdisciplinary synthesis for ecosystem science, policy and management: The Australian experience

Mitigating the environmental effects of global population growth, climatic change and increasing socio-ecological complexity is a daunting challenge. To tackle this requires synthesis: the integration of disparate information to generate novel insights from heterogeneous, complex situations where there are diverse perspectives. Since 1995, a structured approach to inter-, multi- and trans-disciplinary(1) collaboration around big science questions has been supported through synthesis centres around the world. These centres are finding an expanding role due to ever-accumulating data and the need for more and better opportunities to develop transdisciplinary and holistic approaches to solve real-world problems. The Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS ) has been the pioneering ecosystem science synthesis centre in the Southern Hemisphere. Such centres provide analysis and synthesis opportunities for time-pressed scientists, policy-makers and managers. They provide the scientific and organisational environs for virtual and face-to-face engagement, impetus for integration, data and methodological support, and innovative ways to deliver synthesis products. We detail the contribution, role and value of synthesis using ACEAS to exemplify the capacity for synthesis centres to facilitate trans-organisational, transdisciplinary synthesis. We compare ACEAS to other international synthesis centres, and describe how it facilitated project teams and its objective of linking natural resource science to policy to management. Scientists and managers were brought together to actively collaborate in multi-institutional, cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary research on contemporary ecological problems. The teams analysed, integrated and synthesised existing data to co-develop solution-oriented publications and management recommendations that might otherwise not have been produced. We identify key outcomes of some ACEAS working groups which used synthesis to tackle important ecosystem challenges. We also examine the barriers and enablers to synthesis, so that risks can be minimised and successful outcomes maximised. We argue that synthesis centres have a crucial role in developing, communicating and using synthetic transdisciplinary research.

An Integrated Environmental Asthma Model

Asthma is a significant public health problem in many communities. Symptoms of asthma occur as a direct or indirect result of many contributing factors, including influences from the natural and built environments, human behavior, and the adequacy of techniques used in its management. A model is presented to integrate many of these contributing factors, highlighting the characteristics of the atmosphere, i.e., climate, irritants, and allergens. The model stresses the need for investigators to heed the many contributing triggers and influences, including possible synergistic mechanisms, in this disease.

Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change

The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorologic variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.