Paul J. J. Welfens

Telecommunications, Innovation and the Long-term Production Function: Theoretical Aspects and a Cointegration Analysis for West Germany 1960 – 1990

The significance of technological activities as an essential determinant of the economic performance of industrialized economies is generally acknowledged today. It is also undisputed in the meantime that information and communication are becoming increasingly important as comprehensive functions in the economic order. Telecommunications play a central role in this. Thus at the beginning of the 90s the global market volume of the information services amounted to approx. 500 billion ECU, whereby 330 billion ECU fell to telecommunication services and approx. 170 billion ECU to software and computer utilization (cf. WELFENS/GRAACK (1996), p. 9). In clear contradiction to the theoretical insight and economic relevance, however, is the consideration of the level of technology resp. the technological progress and the role of information and communication in macroeconometric production models. So when estimating production functions (e.g. a Cobb-Douglas production function), technological progress is commonly approximated only by a linear time trend. This procedure reveals a series of weaknesses. On the one hand, the inclusion of a time trend does not provide an explanation for technical changes, i.e. the causes or sources underlying technical progress are not distinguishable. At the most, the order of magnitude of the technical progress can be estimated. On the other hand, no changes in the rate of technical progress can be identified, rather technical progress grows uniformly, as if dropping from heaven.

Sustainable growth and resource productivity : economic and global policy issues

Introduction Raimund Bleischwitz, Wuppertal Institute, Germany, Paul J.J. Welfens, European Institute for International Economic Relations, Wuppertal (EIIW) and University of Wuppertal, Germany, and ZhongXiang Zhang, East-West Center, Honolulu, USA Part I: Raw materials supply and resource use from a global perspective 1. Will the mining industry meet global need for metals? Magnus Ericsson, Raw Materials Group (RMG), Stockholm, Sweden 2. Global resource use in a business-as-usual world up to 2030: Updated results from the GINFORS model Christian Lutz, Gesellschaft fur Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS), Osnabruck, Germany, and Stefan Giljum, Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI), Vienna, Austria 3. Development and growth in mineral-rich countries Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland, CEPR, and CESifo, Iceland 4. The physical dimension of international trade 1962-2005: Empirical findings and tentative conclusions Monika Dittrich, University of Cologne and Wuppertal Institute, Germany 5. Defining critical materials Thomas E. Graedel, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, USA Part II: The economics of resources and sustainable growth 6. Explaining oil price dynamics Paul J.J. Welfens, European Institute for International Economic Relations, Wuppertal (EIIW) and University of Wuppertal, Germany 7. Technological catch-up or resource rents? A production frontier approach to growth accounting Natalia Merkina, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway 8. Socio-ecological market economy in Europe: Interrelations between resource, labour and capital productivity Erich Hoedl, European Academy of Science and Arts, Austria 9. Why do companies ignore economic efficiency potentials? The need for public efficiency awareness Mario Schmidt, Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences, Germany Part III: Empirical analysis of resource productivity: Trends and drivers 10. Decoupling GDP from resource use, resource productivity and competitiveness: a cross-country comparison Soren Steger and Raimund Bleischwitz, Wuppertal Institute, Germany 11. Anxiety and technological change: Explaining the decline of sulphur dioxide emissions in Finland since 1950 Jan Kunnas, European University Institute, Italy, and Timo Myllyntaus, University of Turku, Turun yliopisto, Finland 12. Greeces fossil fuel use in 2006: A production, consumption and supply-chain analysis Eleni Papathanasopoulou, Sustainable Solutions Greece Part IV: Global policy issues 13. China and Indias global demand for resources: Drawing some key implications on international energy security and Africas development Jennifer Li, Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability, Falls Church (VA) and US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 14. Asian energy and environmental policy: Promoting growth while preserving the environment ZhongXiang Zhang, East-West Center, Honolulu, USA 15. The rationale for and economic implications of dematerialisation Paul Ekins, Kings College, London, UK Conclusions: Towards a new resource economics Raimund Bleischwitz, Wuppertal Institute, Germany, Paul J.J. Welfens, European Institute for International Economic Relations, Wuppertal (EIIW) and University of Wuppertal, Germany, and ZhongXiang Zhang, East-West Center, Honolulu, USA

Structural Change, Growth and Bazaar Effects in the Single EU Market

This paper analyzes the link between structural change, growth and bazaar effects in the context of open economies. At first we consider the theoretical basis of structural change and discuss the interdependencies between trade, foreign direct investment and innovation dynamics. The empirical analysis puts the focus on traits of innovation and structural change in selected countries. As regards the hypothesis of a bazaar effect we distinguish between gross effects and net effects. The statistics and the analysis of input-output-tables does not provide evidence that bazaar effects would be a critical problem for Germany or other EU countries.

Neue Wachstums- und Innovationspolitik in Deutschland und Europa

Die Unterschiedlichkeit der Wachstumsraten in der Eurozone und insbesondere die Wachstumsschwache Deutschlands im Vergleich zu der starken Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den USA in den 90er Jahren sind Anlass fur die fundierte Untersuchung von Wirtschafts- und Wachstumstrends in diesem Band. Dabei wird die Wachstumsdynamik in Verbindung mit strukturellem Wandel sowie Innovations- und Aussenhandelsdynamik analysiert. Besondere Berucksichtigung findet die Wachstumsrelevanz der New Economy. Neben weiteren empirischen Befunden zur Spezialisierungsentwicklung steht die Diskussion der Optionen einer neuen Wachstums- und Innovationspolitik im Vordergrund. Auch Probleme der EU-Fiskalpolitik werden diskutiert.

Structural Change, Innovation and Growth in the Single EU Market

An analysis of structural change along its main dimensions (relative goods and factor prices, shifts in sectoral output and employment shares, and the respective contributions of process and product innovation) is first presented. Next, capital mobility is introduced as well as Sinns controversial characterization of the large German trade surplus against the backdrop of the increase in international outsourcing. The authors then flesh out the model to show that growth, at least in the medium term, hinges on both demand and supply-side dynamics, with the structure of output and the intensity of trade contributing to growth. Finally, in this exegesis on structural change, innovation, and growth, some dynamic Schumpeterian considerations are offered. The bottom line is that the ability of firms from EU15 countries to rely on imported intermediate products from EU accession countries is the basis for gaining competitiveness in both the global economy and vis-a-vis the United States. It enables them to become more price competitive while restructuring domestic outsourcing in the EU15, making it more focused on producing technologically advanced intermediate products than heretofore. A detailed set of empirical regularities are investigated along two main dimensions: innovation traits and structural change, and Sinns bazaar effect. International competitiveness is evaluated on the basis of revealed comparative advantage indicators (RCAs) and export unit values (EUVs).

Concepts and Theory

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is a core sector of the modern manufacturing industry and trade in goods, but it also concerns IT services and telecommunications services, meaning that the services sector and services trade are also affected. Part of ICT sectors are technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive, but there are certainly some activities which are also characterized by low knowledge-intensive and rather modest skills. The case of call centers is one prime example. At the other end of the spectrum, we find such activities as chip production and advanced software which could be characterized as high technology/high-knowledge intensive. While such a broad classification at the two-digit level of industry (or trade) is adequate, the increasing tendency of the ICT sector to realize considerable fragmentation — that is splitting up the value-added chain — requires adequate differentiation in terms of classification. While the design of a chip or software development is to be characterized by high technology/high knowledge-intensity, the production of wafers or the writing of standard software codes (as part of a complex software package) represents medium technology intensity. From this perspective ICT is, of course, not a homogenous sector.

The Transatlantic Banking Crisis: Lessons, EU Reforms and G20 Issues

Financial market globalization was reinforced in the decade following 1995, and one might expect major benefits from sustainable globalization. There is no doubt that securitization of loans and foreign direct investment of banks as well as internationalization of the banking business has intensified over time (Deutsche 2008; ECB 2008);

EU-Osterweiterung, IKT und Strukturwandel

5, EU-Osterweiterung, IKT und Strukturwandel, Wählen Sie diesen Titel EUOsterweiterung, IKT und Strukturwandel [elektronischer Volltext]. Reihe:Europäische Neue Perspektiven der Automobilund IKT-Wirtschaft. Informationsund Kommunikationstechnologie haben sich im Zuge der EUOsterweiterung, Die Bedeutung der Clusterdynamik, den fortschreitenden Strukturwandel und Fragen der Mit Europa den Strukturwandel vorantreiben. Georgi: Saarland bei EU-Programmen gut positioniert für den gesamten Clusterbereich von Automotive über IT bis zu Nanobiotech Das Gesamtergebnis ist angesichts der Befürchtungen über mögliche Mittelverlagerungen durch die EUOsterweiterung ein Riesenerfolg für fung: Sektoraler Strukturwandel, in: Pohl, R. (Hrsg.), Hersystem und die EU-Erweiterung, Monatsbericht Februar. 2000, S. FI = Finnland, FR = Frankreich, GR = Griechenland, IE = Irland, IT = Italien, LU = Luxemburg, NL = Niederlande,

Digital Social Market Economy — Towards a New Economic System

The expansion of the information and communication technology (ICT) in the 1990s has raised new challenges for OECD countries and Newly Industrializing Countries. With a share of about 10% in the US, Germany and Scandinavia, the ICT sector is still rather small, but its sustained technological and economic dynamics clearly influence overall structural change in a decisive way. High US economic growth in the 1990s and some EU countries has largerly been attributed to ICT whose expansion requires a high share of skilled labour and strong emphasis on innovations so that research and development (R&) become more important. Since ICT facilitates production of many new varieties, represents network effects in ceratin sectors and stimulates innovation, it has those ingredients considered particularly important in the New Growth Theory.

Information and Communication Technology: Dynamics, Integration and Economic Stability

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become a major driver of investment and growth in OECD countries. The analysis puts the focus on key developments in the ICT sector and international outsourcing dynamics as well as the specific role of ICT in the financial sector. One can show that the expansion of ICT is not only contributing to national and international outsourcing but to insourcing as well. Furthermore, ICT affects regional integration. In the context of a modified Dornbusch model – including foreign direct investment – the impact of ICT on output and the exchange rate are discussed. The risk of overshooting in foreign exchange markets is likely to be reduced through the expansion of ICT which allows a more pro-active monetary policy.