Paul Kershaw

Measuring the influence of space and time effects on time on the market

This paper is concerned with spatial effects of time on the market for residential property and time varying relationships using a dataset of properties from the Adelaide metropolitan area, Australia, during the period 2002–2011. The analysis firstly considers the spatial dependence in time on the market and secondly extends the analysis to a space-time model using 2SLS regression. The findings demonstrate the complexity in spatial analysis with results indicating a random distribution of time on the market in 86% of observations a pattern that is consistent over time. Spatial autocorrelation is shown to increase time on the market in the subject property while spatial error decreases time on the market in the subject property suggesting a high level of market transparency and improved liquidity. The compensating or nullifying effects of both types of spatial association is shown to contribute to the random distribution observed in time on the market. A strong explanatory capacity of the business cycle suggests that economic drivers are leading time on the market rather than prices.

Evaluating returns in the residential rental sector

Purpose – This study seeks to determine an appropriate form of yield analysis as a means of improving the supply of low cost rental housing within Australia.Design/methodology/approach – Rental returns are quantified on a disaggregated basis based on the amalgamation of three major government property databases.Findings – Much of the information on returns in low cost rental housing is based on erroneous assumptions. More accurate reporting of returns would put in place the appropriate risk premium for investment in low cost rental housing.Originality/value – The study adds value by allowing policy makers to better understand the nature of returns required to increase the level of investment in the low cost end of the private rental market.

Cross sectional Analysis of time on Market indicators for an Australian City

Abstract This paper reports on a cross sectional analysis of Time on Market (TOM) for the residential property market of an Australian City. The focus is an analysis of TOM across location and by dwelling type, rather than over time, during a period of relative market stability. The study examines TOM for a three month period from September to November 2010 for the city of Adelaide, Australia which is a geographically isolated but active market with over 20,000 residential transactions each year. The study reports on the factors which impact on TOM when examined by region using both descriptive analysis and statistical modelling. Data used in the study results from combining sale transaction records from the South Australian Government with details of property marketing collected from advertisements in newspapers and websites. The research investigates relationships between TOM and dwelling type (detached, semi-detached and home units), location (ten regions) and house size (main rooms). It also compares first to last advertised price across location and for each property type. The research shows that location and house size both have a significant impact on TOM. Therefore, an important finding of the study is that factors such as location and dwelling size need to be held constant in any analysis of TOM over time.

Bait pricing: evaluating the success of regulatory reform in advertising

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of this legislative reform in the state of South Australia (SA) through an examination of the relationship between listed or advertised price and transaction prices before and after the changes in regulation. Between 2000 and 2008, legislative changes took place throughout Australia to make real-estate transactions more transparent and to deal with misleading conduct by real-estate agents. The practice of “charm” or “bait” pricing was targeted. This denotes the under-quoting of estimated selling prices in real-estate sale advertisements which can be considered deceptive or even fraudulent. Design/methodology/approach - – The study area is Adelaide, the state capital of SA and includes analysis of first and last advertised prices and eventual selling price for > 120,000 residential sales transactions over a nine-year period between 2003 and 2011. The analysis to test these hypotheses included, first, a descriptive evaluation of the percentage price difference over time and a spatial breakdown of mean percentage price difference before and after legislation. Second, for each hypothesis, the change was tested by measuring the variance of the percentage change, with significance established through the Levene and Brown–Forsythe tests, rather than by the mean percentage change. Findings - – The results, both descriptive and statistical, support the effectiveness of the reform in legislation. Research limitations/implications - – The study has application in terms of agents as social gatekeepers and confirms the role of regulation to ensure market values are achieved and consumers not disadvantaged. With friction in the market, imperfect information and the possible behavioural responses of land agents, there may be incomplete market correction of underpricing strategies. This paper confirms the effectiveness of one such market intervention. Social implications - – Some half a million dwellings are purchased in Australia every year. Annually, in the state of SA, some 53,000 dwellings are financed to be purchased or built. These levels of purchase reflect national home ownership rates of about 69 per cent, with some 33 per cent of Australians owning their houses outright and a growing number, some 36 per cent, owners with a mortgage. Australian households also move house relatively frequently. In 2008, 43 per cent of Australians reported moving in the previous 5 years, 15 per cent had moved 3 or more times. The most common reasons for moving were twofold, either to buy a house or to buy a bigger house. These levels of purchase, home ownership and mobility underpin the importance and viability of some 10,000 real-estate services businesses in Australia; a sector which, up to 2,000, was largely self-regulated. Originality/value - – This paper is one of the first in Australia to effectively quantify the success of legislative reform on residential agency behaviour.

Measuring Conversion of Industrial Land After Sale

Abstract This paper quantifies the take up of vacant industrial land, in terms of its conversion from vacant to improved land, for the metropolitan area of Adelaide. It involves the comparison of sales for a five year period between 1991 and 1995 with the SA Valuer General’s Valuation List for 1996. The analysis reveals the generally low level of take up in terms of conversion of land, sold as vacant industrial land, to land which is improved. The paper begins by briefly discussing alternative methodologies for estimating demand, in terms of take up rates, and ends by summarising the implications of the study for demand forecasting in general.