Paul Meredith

The ability of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) to discriminate patients at risk of early cardiac arrest, unanticipated intensive care unit admission, and death

INTRODUCTION Early warning scores (EWS) are recommended as part of the early recognition and response to patient deterioration. The Royal College of Physicians recommends the use of a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for the routine clinical assessment of all adult patients. METHODS We tested the ability of NEWS to discriminate patients at risk of cardiac arrest, unanticipated intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death within 24h of a NEWS value and compared its performance to that of 33 other EWSs currently in use, using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and a large vital signs database (n=198,755 observation sets) collected from 35,585 consecutive, completed acute medical admissions. RESULTS The AUROCs (95% CI) for NEWS for cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission, death, and any of the outcomes, all within 24h, were 0.722 (0.685-0.759), 0.857 (0.847-0.868), 0.894 (0.887-0.902), and 0.873 (0.866-0.879), respectively. Similarly, the ranges of AUROCs (95% CI) for the other 33 EWSs were 0.611 (0.568-0.654) to 0.710 (0.675-0.745) (cardiac arrest); 0.570 (0.553-0.568) to 0.827 (0.814-0.840) (unanticipated ICU admission); 0.813 (0.802-0.824) to 0.858 (0.849-0.867) (death); and 0.736 (0.727-0.745) to 0.834 (0.826-0.842) (any outcome). CONCLUSIONS NEWS has a greater ability to discriminate patients at risk of the combined outcome of cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission or death within 24h of a NEWS value than 33 other EWSs.

Impact of introducing an electronic physiological surveillance system on hospital mortality

Background Avoidable hospital mortality is often attributable to inadequate patient vital signs monitoring, and failure to recognise or respond to clinical deterioration. The processes involved with vital sign collection and charting; their integration, interpretation and analysis; and the delivery of decision support regarding subsequent clinical care are subject to potential error and/or failure. Objective To determine whether introducing an electronic physiological surveillance system (EPSS), specifically designed to improve the collection and clinical use of vital signs data, reduced hospital mortality. Methods A pragmatic, retrospective, observational study of seasonally adjusted in-hospital mortality rates in three main hospital specialties was undertaken before, during and after the sequential deployment and ongoing use of a hospital-wide EPSS in two large unconnected acute general hospitals in England. The EPSS, which uses wireless handheld computing devices, replaced a paper-based vital sign charting and clinical escalation system. Results During EPSS implementation, crude mortality fell from a baseline of 7.75% (2168/27 959) to 6.42% (1904/29 676) in one hospital (estimated 397 fewer deaths), and from 7.57% (1648/21 771) to 6.15% (1614/26 241) at the second (estimated 372 fewer deaths). At both hospitals, multiyear statistical process control analyses revealed abrupt and sustained mortality reductions, coincident with the deployment and increasing use of the system. The cumulative total of excess deaths reduced in all specialties with increasing use of the system across the hospital. Conclusions The use of technology specifically designed to improve the accuracy, reliability and availability of patients’ vital signs and early warning scores, and thereby the recognition of and response to patient deterioration, is associated with reduced mortality in this study.

Patterns in the recording of vital signs and early warning scores: compliance with a clinical escalation protocol

Background The recognition of patient deterioration depends largely on identifying abnormal vital signs, yet little is known about the daily pattern of vital signs measurement and charting. Methods We compared the pattern of vital signs and VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS) data collected from admissions to all adult inpatient areas (except high care areas, such as critical care units) of a NHS district general hospital from 1 May 2010 to 30 April 2011, to the hospitals clinical escalation protocol. Main outcome measures were hourly and daily patterns of vital signs and ViEWS value documentation; numbers of vital signs in the periods 08:00–11:59 and 20:00–23:59 with subsequent vital signs recorded in the following 6 h; and time to next observation (TTNO) for vital signs recorded in the periods 08:00–11:59 and 20:00–23:59. Results 950 043 vital sign datasets were recorded. The daily pattern of observation documentation was not uniform; there were large morning and evening peaks, and lower night-time documentation. The pattern was identical on all days. 23.84% of vital sign datasets with ViEWS ≥ 9 were measured at night compared with 10.12–19.97% for other ViEWS values. 47.42% of patients with ViEWS=7–8 and 31.22% of those with ViEWS ≥ 9 in the period 20:00–23:59 did not have vital signs recorded in the following 6 h. TTNO decreased with increasing ViEWS value, but less than expected by the monitoring protocol. Conclusions There was only partial adherence to the vital signs monitoring protocol. Sicker patients appear more likely to have vital signs measured overnight, but even their observations were often not followed by timely repeat assessments. The observed pattern of monitoring may reflect the impact of competing clinical priorities.

Pain: a quality of care issue during patients' admission to hospital

AIM To determine the extent of clinically significant pain suffered by hospitalized patients during their stay and at discharge. BACKGROUND The management of pain in hospitals continues to be problematic, despite long-standing awareness of the problem and improvements, e.g. acute pain teams and patient-controlled analgesia, epidural analgesia. Poorly managed pain, especially acute pain, often leads to adverse physical and psychological outcomes including persistent pain and disability. A systems approach may improve the management of pain in hospitals. DESIGN A descriptive cross-sectional exploratory design. METHOD A large electronic pain score database of vital signs and pain scores was interrogated between 1st January 2010 and 31st December 2010 to establish the proportion of hospital inpatient stays with clinically significant pain during the hospital stay and at discharge. FINDINGS A total of 810,774 pain scores were analysed, representing 38,451 patient stays. Clinically significant pain was present in 38·4% of patient stays. Across surgical categories, 54·0% of emergency admissions experienced clinically significant pain, compared with 48·0% of elective admissions. Medical areas had a summary figure of 26·5%. For 30% patients, clinically significant pain was followed by a consecutive clinically significant pain score. Only 0·2% of pain assessments were made independently of vital signs. CONCLUSION Reducing the risk of long-term persistent pain should be seen as integral to improving patient safety and can be achieved by harnessing organizational pain management processes with quality improvement initiatives. The assessment of pain alongside vital signs should be reviewed. Setting quality targets for pain are essential for improving the patients experience.

SpO2 values in acute medical admissions breathing air: implications for the British Thoracic Society guideline for emergency oxygen use in adult patients?

S(p)O(2) is routinely used to assess the well-being of patients, but it is difficult to find an evidence-based description of its normal range. The British Thoracic Society (BTS) has published guidance for oxygen administration and recommends a target S(p)O(2) of 94-98% for most adult patients. These recommendations rely on consensus opinion and small studies using arterial blood gas measurements of saturation (S(a)O(2)). Using large datasets of routinely collected vital signs from four hospitals, we analysed the S(p)O(2) range of 37,593 acute general medical inpatients (males: 47%) observed to be breathing room air. Age at admission ranged from 16 to 105 years with a mean (SD) of 64 (21) years. 19,642 admissions (52%) were aged <70 years. S(p)O(2) ranged from 70% to 100% with a median (IQR) of 97% (95-98%). S(p)O(2) values for males and females were similar. In-hospital mortality for the study patients was 5.27% (range 4.80-6.27%). Mortality (95% CI) for patients with initial S(p)O(2) values of 97%, 96% and 95% was 3.65% (3.22-4.13); 4.47% (3.99-5.00); and 5.67% (5.03-6.38), respectively. Additional analyses of S(p)O(2) values for 37,299 medical admissions aged ≥18 years provided results that were distinctly different to those upon which the current BTS guidelines based their definition of normality. Our findings suggest that the BTS should consider changing its target saturation for actively treated patients not at risk of hypercapnic respiratory failure to 96-98%.

Decision-tree early warning score (DTEWS) validates the design of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

AIM OF STUDY To compare the performance of a human-generated, trial and error-optimised early warning score (EWS), i.e., National Early Warning Score (NEWS), with one generated entirely algorithmically using Decision Tree (DT) analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS We used DT analysis to construct a decision-tree EWS (DTEWS) from a database of 198,755 vital signs observation sets collected from 35,585 consecutive, completed acute medical admissions. We evaluated the ability of DTEWS to discriminate patients at risk of cardiac arrest, unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death, each within 24h of a given vital signs observation. We compared the performance of DTEWS and NEWS using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. RESULTS The structures of DTEWS and NEWS were very similar. The AUROC (95% CI) for DTEWS for cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission, death, and any of the outcomes, all within 24h, were 0.708 (0.669-0.747), 0.862 (0.852-0.872), 0.899 (0.892-0.907), and 0.877 (0.870-0.883), respectively. Values for NEWS were 0.722 (0.685-0.759) [cardiac arrest], 0.857 (0.847-0.868) [unanticipated ICU admission}, 0.894 (0.887-0.902) [death], and 0.873 (0.866-0.879) [any outcome]. CONCLUSIONS The decision-tree technique independently validates the composition and weightings of NEWS. The DT approach quickly provided an almost identical EWS to NEWS, although one that admittedly would benefit from fine-tuning using clinical knowledge. We believe that DT analysis could be used to quickly develop candidate models for disease-specific EWSs, which may be required in future.

Development and validation of a decision tree early warning score based on routine laboratory test results for the discrimination of hospital mortality in emergency medical admissions

AIM OF STUDY To build an early warning score (EWS) based exclusively on routinely undertaken laboratory tests that might provide early discrimination of in-hospital death and could be easily implemented on paper. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using a database of combined haematology and biochemistry results for 86,472 discharged adult patients for whom the admission specialty was Medicine, we used decision tree (DT) analysis to generate a laboratory decision tree early warning score (LDT-EWS) for each gender. LDT-EWS was developed for a single set (n=3496) (Q1) and validated in 22 other discrete sets each of three months long (Q2, Q3…Q23) (total n=82,976; range of n=3428 to 4093) by testing its ability to discriminate in-hospital death using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. RESULTS The data generated slightly different models for male and female patients. The ranges of AUROC values (95% CI) for LDT-EWS with in-hospital death as the outcome for the validation sets Q2-Q23 were: 0.755 (0.727-0.783) (Q16) to 0.801 (0.776-0.826) [all patients combined, n=82,976]; 0.744 (0.704-0.784, Q16) to 0.824 (0.792-0.856, Q2) [39,591 males]; and 0.742 (0.707-0.777, Q10) to 0.826 (0.796-0.856, Q12) [43,385 females]. CONCLUSIONS This study provides evidence that the results of commonly measured laboratory tests collected soon after hospital admission can be represented in a simple, paper-based EWS (LDT-EWS) to discriminate in-hospital mortality. We hypothesise that, with appropriate modification, it might be possible to extend the use of LDT-EWS throughout the patients hospital stay.

A Comparison of the Ability of the Physiologic Components of Medical Emergency Team Criteria and the U.k. National Early Warning Score to Discriminate Patients at Risk of a Range of Adverse Clinical Outcomes.

Objective:To compare the ability of medical emergency team criteria and the National Early Warning Score to discriminate cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission and death within 24 hours of a vital signs measurement, and to quantify the associated workload. Design:Retrospective cohort study. Setting:A large U.K. National Health Service District General Hospital. Patients:Adults hospitalized from May 25, 2011, to December 31, 2013. Interventions:None. Measurements and Main Results:We applied the National Early Warning Score and 44 sets of medical emergency team criteria to a database of 2,245,778 vital signs sets (103,998 admissions). The National Early Warning Score’s performance was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and compared with sensitivity/specificity for different medical emergency team criteria. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the National Early Warning Score for the combined outcome (i.e., death, cardiac arrest, or unanticipated ICU admission) was 0.88 (0.88–0.88). A National Early Warning Score value of 7 had sensitivity/specificity values of 44.5% and 97.4%, respectively. For the 44 sets of medical emergency team criteria studied, sensitivity ranged from 19.6% to 71.2% and specificity from 71.5% to 98.5%. For all outcomes, the position of the National Early Warning Score receiver-operating characteristic curve was above and to the left of all medical emergency team criteria points, indicating better discrimination. Similarly, the positions of all medical emergency team criteria points were above and to the left of the National Early Warning Score efficiency curve, indicating higher workloads (trigger rates). Conclusions:When medical emergency team systems are compared to a National Early Warning Score value of greater than or equal to 7, some medical emergency team systems have a higher sensitivity than National Early Warning Score values of greater than or equal to 7. However, all of these medical emergency team systems have a lower specificity and would generate greater workloads.

Reducing the number and impact of outbreaks of nosocomial viral gastroenteritis: time-series analysis of a multidimensional quality improvement initiative.

Background Nosocomial norovirus infections and their control measures disrupt patient care, increase staff workload and raise healthcare costs. Objective To determine the impact on outbreaks of nosocomial viral gastroenteritis, staff and patients affected, and bed closures of a multidimensional quality improvement (QI) initiative focused on education; improved patient surveillance; early automated recognition and notification of infection of index patients; and proactive care and control measures. Methods In a pragmatic, retrospective, observational study, we compared numbers of suspected/confirmed norovirus outbreaks at Portsmouth Hospitals National Health Service Trust (PHT) with regional and national data, before and after a multidimensional QI initiative. We also compared mean daily bed closures due to norovirus-like symptoms. At PHT only we recorded patient and staff numbers with norovirus-like symptoms, and days of disruption due to outbreaks. Results Annual outbreak numbers fell between 2009–2010 and 2010–2014 by 91% at PHT compared with 15% and 28% for Wessex and England, respectively. After April 2010, recorded outbreaks were 8 (PHT), 383 (Wessex) and 5063 (England). For the winter periods from 2010/2011 to 2013/2014, total bed closures due to norovirus were 38 (PHT; mean 0.5 per week), 3565 (Wessex hospitals; mean 48.8 per hospital per week) and 2730 (England; mean 37.4 per hospital per week). At PHT, patients affected by norovirus-like symptoms fell by 92%, affected staff by 81% and days of disruption by 88%. Conclusions A multiyear QI programme, including use of real-time electronic identification of patients with norovirus-like symptoms, and an early robust response to suspected infection, resulted in virtual elimination of outbreaks. The ability to identify index cases of infection early facilitates prompt action to prevent ongoing transmission and appears to be a crucial intervention.

The relationship between cognitive impairment, mortality and discharge characteristics in a large cohort of older adults with unscheduled admissions to an acute hospital: a retrospective observational study

Abstract Background older people with dementia admitted to hospital for acute illness have higher mortality and longer hospital stays compared to those without dementia. Cognitive impairment (CI) is common in older people, and they may also be at increased risk of poor outcomes. Methods retrospective observational study of unscheduled admissions aged ≥75 years. Admission characteristics, mortality rates and discharge outcomes were compared between three groups: (i) known dementia diagnosis (DD), (ii) CI but no diagnosis of dementia and (iii) no CI. Results of 19,269 admissions (13,652 patients), 19.8% had a DD, 11.6% had CI and 68.6% had neither. Admissions with CI or DD were older and had more females than those with no CI, and were more likely to be admitted through the Emergency Department (88.4% and 90.7%, versus 82.0%) and to medical wards (89.4% and 84.4%, versus 76.8%). Acuity levels at admission were similar between the groups. Patients with CI or DD had more admissions at ‘high risk’ from malnutrition than patients with no CI (28.0% and 33.7% versus 17.5%), and a higher risk of dying in hospital (11.8% [10.5–13.3] and 10.8% [9.8–11.9] versus (6.6% [6.2–7.0])). Conclusions the admission characteristics, mortality and length of stay of patients with CI resemble those of patients with diagnosed dementia. Whilst attention has been focussed on the need for additional support for people with dementia, patients with CI, which may include those with undiagnosed dementia or delirium, appear to have equally bad outcomes from hospitalisation.