Paul Ostwald

Experiences in mining aviation safety data

The goal of data analysis in aviation safety is simple: improve safety. However, the path to this goal is hard to identify. What data mining methods are most applicable to this task? What data are available and how should they be analyzed? How do we focus on the most interesting results? Our answers to these questions are based on a recent research project we completed. The encouraging news is that we found a number of aviation safety offices doing commendable work to collect and analyze safety-related data. But we also found a number of areas where data mining techniques could provide new tools that either perform analyses that were not considered before, or that can now be done more easily. Currently, Aviation Safety offices collect and analyze the incident reports by a combination of manual and automated methods. Data analysis is done by safety officers who are well familiar with the domain, but not with data mining methods. Some Aviation Safety officers have tools to automate the database query and report generation process. However, the actual analysis is done by the officer with only fairly rudimentary tools to help extract the useful information from the data. Our research project looked at the application of data mining techniques to aviation safety data to help Aviation Safety officers with their analysis task. This effort led to the creation of a tool called the “Aviation Safety Data Mining Workbench”. This paper describes the research effort, the workbench, the experience with data mining of Aviation Safety data, and lessons learned.

The Miles-in-Trail Impact Assessment Capability

Miles-in-Trail (MIT) restrictions are one of the most commonly used traffic management initiatives. They are most often used to manage arrival flows into airports. Traffic managers often use MIT restrictions to protect a destination airport, particularly when capacity has been reduced due to weather or during periods of high volume. They also use MIT restrictions to smooth out flows to support merging streams. Currently, traffic managers must rely largely on experience to determine if a proposed MIT restriction will have the intended effect on traffic demand, as no tool is available to specifically assess the impact of proposed MIT restrictions. The inability to assess the impact of such a widely used traffic management initiative can sometimes result in inefficient restrictions that increase impacts on flights as well as controller effort. The MITRE Corporations CAASD has developed a prototype MIT Impact Assessment (MIA) capability which allows traffic managers to evaluate the impact of proposed MIT restrictions on resources and flights before implementing them. This paper proposes an operational concept for arrival MIT restrictions using the MIA capability. This paper also provides an analysis to identify the type of situations when the proposed MIA capability can be used in the future to employ less restrictive MIT restrictions and to determine the impact of MIT restrictions on flying times.

Future vision of globally harmonized national airspace system with concepts of operations beyond year 2020

As laid out in the National Airspace Systems (NAS) Operational Evolution Plan (EOP), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the aviation community are planning to make significant investment in NAS improvements over the next ten years. These enhancements involve implementation of communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS) technologies, and automation of ground systems in order to improve efficiency, safety, capacity and security. However, the mode of operations during this time frame is expected to continue as it is today. A number of research efforts are underway to consider significant changes to NAS operations beyond the OEP. This paper presents a vision of year 2020 and beyond based on a number of new paradigms that provides a globally harmonized service to conventional aircraft, uninhabited and space-launch vehicles. The key paradigms are: 1) a multi-faceted airport structure of well connected hubs, spoke, satellite and smaller airports; 2) multi-level CNS architecture for seamless and secured operations; 3) problem-free flight planning independent of look ahead times; 4) flexible sector boundaries based on equitable workload; and 5) a universal information service assuring uniformity and security of real time information to all stakeholders and service provider decision support systems (DSS). Potential make up of future air traffic is discussed including a significant number of non-scheduled flights such as on-demand service, charter, ravel club, fractional and short-haul intra-city operations. A concept of system wide information management (SWIM) that provides a virtual electronic collaboration space is described. The operational concepts fully support self-delivery and self-separation for appropriately equipped aircraft. New roles for service providers at national, regional and local air traffic

Mission Effectiveness and European Airspace: U.S. Air Force CNS/ATM Planning for Future Years

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) uses the term Communication Navigation Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) for capabilities that allow its aircraft to use civil airspace and air traffic control services. The resulting ability to interoperate with air traffic control systems around the world supports the USAFs global, multi-faceted mission, but entails great expense in on-board equipage and training. It is important to understand the trade-offs that the USAF must make in assessing the value of specific CNS/ATM capabilities. In this paper, we describe a model-driven analysis to assess mission effectiveness. The analysis is accomplished via a five-step process involving military route generation, simulation of the civilian airspace activity, simulation of delay events for military flights, and evaluation of several figures of merit. The software modules used for these activities were a combination of existing packages and some newly-developed programs. The analysis accounts for planned USAF CNS/ATM capabilities by aircraft type, as well as any airspace and operational restrictions that might be encountered in specific geographic regions when the aircraft does not have the required capabilities. Two layers of interactions are investigated: first, within the USAF enterprise, specifically, between the fighter and tankers assets and, second, between the USAF and civilian ATM.

A process for estimating cost/benefits of future air transportation system operational concepts based on 4D navigation

The aviation community worldwide has been working for sometime to define a vision of the future air transportation system. The overall progress thus far has been primarily at a conceptual stage. This paper integrates a number of operational concepts into a realizable vision for the National Airspace System (NAS). A process is defined to help develop future operational scenarios based on the makeup of year 2020 fleet mix and aircraft avionics capabilities, considering non-scheduled on-demand, charter, travel club, fractional and short-haul intra-city operations. A majority of aircraft are projected to be able to fly via 4D navigation and to assume a larger share of the responsibility for maintaining separation. This would require significant investment in avionics and the automation of the ground system and infrastructure. Cost/benefits analysis is a key portion of the process. Example results are presented to illustrate return on investment over time as more and more aircraft are equipped with enhanced avionics. The operational benefits of 4D navigation operations are derived from reduced air and ground delays determined from the NAS-wide simulation of future operations. The example presented compared the life cycle costs of air/ground enhancements as function of aircraft equipage to ascertain that the overall benefits outweigh the implementation costs over time. The process is based on a number of operational assumptions and likely air/ground system enhancements beyond the currently planned enhancements over next 10 years. The evaluation process presented in the paper can be used to help understand the benefits and limitations of the future operational concepts, and intends to help define an ideal, but realistic vision of the future air transportation system for guiding research cost effectively.

Assessing the impact of airspace security measures during the 2008 united nations general assembly meeting

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) plays a pivotal role in maintaining security within the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper discusses employment of temporary flight restrictions and other air domain security measures during the September 2008 United Nations General Assembly meeting. Also discussed are some of the airspace security incidents that occurred during the event, identified as Tracks of Interest, and some of the impacts that the airspace security measures had on the NAS and its users. A comparison is made with impacts measured during the 2007 United Nations General Assembly meeting.

Airspace Security Measures Employed For the UN General Assembly Meeting: Analysis and Impact

The FAA plays a pivotal role in maintaining security within the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper discusses employment of temporary flight restrictions, use of air interdiction assets and establishment of an Aviation Security Operations Center as air domain security measures during the September 2007 United Nations General Assembly meeting. Also discussed are some of the Tracks of Interest that were detected during the event and some of the impacts that airspace security measures had on the NAS and its users.

Simulating Civilian and U.S. Military Use of European Airspace

A request for modeling of the European air traffic environment was addressed using an existing playback and analysis capability. Previously used only to represent United States (US) airspace, the tool was accoutered to handle civilian air traffic over Europe and part of southwest Asia, as well as U.S. military flights pursuing specific tactical missions. Analysts and developers searched the World Wide Web and were able to identify and retrieve several key elements necessary for a simulation: a source for commercial traffic routes, traffic growth factors for future years, the upper wind field, and formulae for discerning localized traffic congestion. The completed simulation infrastructure was used to answer questions regarding purchasing advanced avionic equipment for the U.S. military aircraft fleet. Full details addressing those questions can be found in (Wigfield, 2006)

Assessing the Impacts of Airspace Security Measures Employed During the 2008 Democratic and Republican National Conventions

Airspace security measures are employed during certain hi gh-profile events. This paper discusses the airspace security measures employed during two such events: the 2008 Democratic and Republican National Conventions. An assessment was made of several of the impacts that these measures had on the National Airsp ace System and its users. A comparison of these impacts with those assessed for two previous events, the United Nations General Assembly meetings held in 2007 and 2008 are also presented.

Assessing the impact of airspace security measures during several 2009 events

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) plays a pivotal role in maintaining security within the National Airspace System (NAS). In particular, high profile events require special airspace security measures to ensure the safety and security of the participants and the venues hosting these events. These events are often designated as National Security Special Events (NSSEs). This paper discusses Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) and other air domain security measures typically employed during NSSEs. Examined are two 2009 NSSEs: the January Presidential Inauguration and the September United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) meeting. Also examined are some of the airspace security incidents that occurred during these events, identified as Tracks of Interest (TOIs). A comparison is also made with incidents measured during several previous NSSEs: the 2007 and 2008 UNGA meetings and the Democratic and Republican National Conventions held during 2008.