Paul Pfaffenbichler

Modelling with Systems Dynamics as a Method to Bridge the Gap between Politics, Planning and Science? Lessons Learnt from the Development of the Land Use and Transport Model MARS

Abstract Systems Dynamics (SD) was founded by John Forrester and colleagues in the late 1950s at the MIT. SD offers qualitative and quantitative tools to analyse systems. The major qualitative method is Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). CLDs facilitate the description, communication and discussion of any kind of system. CLDs allow statements about the principal system behaviour, i.e. whether a state of dynamic equilibrium can be reached or not. CLDs can form the basis for quantitative dynamic modelling. The major quantitative SD principles are stocks and flows. Qualitative and quantitative methods have been used to develop the dynamic land use and transport interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator). Operational models exist in 14 European, Asian and South American cities. Versions of Washington DC and Ho Chi Minh City are under development. An interface called ‘flight simulator’ which allows to select policies from a predefined set, run the model and calculate the effects of the selected policy accompanies MARS. The flight simulator tool was used in workshops with politicians, planners and researchers in Vietnam and Brazil. The aim of this paper is to discuss the potential of an SD‐based approach to bridge the gap between politics, planning and science.

THE USE OF RESPONSE SURFACES IN SPECIFYING TRANSPORT STRATEGIES

Integrated transport strategies can involve a wide range of measures, each varying in the intensity with which it is applied. Objective functions can be specified to reflect public policy objectives, and their value will change as changes are made in the measures included and their intensity, generating a response surface. This process has been used in earlier research to identify the optimum combination of measures for a given objective function. In this paper the data generated is used to explore the shape of the response surface around the optimum as individual policy measures are varied in intensity. Results are presented for three cities, using different models. They indicate particular sensitivity to changes in pricing and service frequency, and greater sensitivity for economic objective functions than those which include environmental attributes. Performance is particularly sensitive when public transport is deregulated. Changes in objective function also lead to marked changes in the optimum values for pricing measures. Road pricing performance is very sensitive to the definition of the charging method. Response surfaces have been shown to be particularly useful in indicating sensitivity to a given policy instrument; in determining the loss of benefit if a sub-optimal level is required; and in assessing robustness of strategies against changes in objectives.

The Effect of Oil Prices on Transport Policies for Europe

ABSTRACT The future energy supply and the projected scarcity of oil will play an ever-increasing role in the development of land-use and transport strategies within Europe. This article provides a scenario-based investigation using a world energy market model (POLES) linked to an EU-level model (ASTRA) and a regional land-use transport interaction model (MARS). All three models were used to investigate the effects of policies in technology, infrastructure, pricing, and regulation under different assumptions about energy supply. Our results suggest that changes in oil prices will have a small impact on fuel use but that demand regulation will be needed to tackle congestion, and technology improvements can reduce emissions. Hence, investments in technologies and some demand regulation will be required to meet targets on sustainability.

Can Decision Making Processes Benefit from a User Friendly Land Use and Transport Interaction Model

Policy instruments, Flight simulator Abstract: transport and land use developments. Decision making in this context is a challenging task which was explored in detail in a series of research projects. To support decision making, tools were developed to reduce the risk of inappropriate decisions in the land use and transport context. One of these tools is MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator); an integrated dynamic land use and transport model. The paper presented here focuses therefore on two main issues: 1) the introduction of the decision support tool MARS and of the cause-effect relations between the land-use and the transport system implemented within MARS and 2) the design and application of the MARS flight simulator (MARS FS) as a graphical user interface for MARS especially designed to the needs of decision makers. Urban regions today face serious challenges caused by past and ongoing Land-use and transport model, Dynamic modelling, Decision-making support,

Fuel Tax Levels Necessary to Achieve the Agreed Reduction Targets of CO2 Emissions. The Case of Madrid

Sustainable urban areas are widely considered a promising target for every city. Different policies are being designed in order to tackle the multifaceted range of transport-related problems in urban agglomerations and therefore contribute significantly to the overall quality of life in cities. The recently published communication “Green Paper - Towards a new culture for urban mobility” [1], clearly says that “European towns and cities are all different, but they face similar challenges and are trying to find common solutions”: for making our cities sustainable. This is not a minor task. Over 60% of the population lives in urban areas and 85% of the EU’s gross domestic product is created in urban areas [1,2].

MARS meets ANIMAP: Interlinking the Model MARS with dynamic Internet Cartography

Abstract Transport plays a major role in our daily lives. The characteristics of a transport system influence the structure of our economy, the settlement structure and, as a consequence, the social and natural environment. The simulation model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator), developed by the Institute for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering at the Vienna University of Technology, is used to assess and to quantify the impacts of transport and/or land use policy instruments on economy, land use and environment. MARS is an integrated dynamic land use and transport model which simulates the effects of different transport- and land use planning policies over a time period of 30 years. An important point in communicating simulation results to different stakeholder groups such as transport planners, traffic modellers and decision makers is to present information regarding the model design and model results at an adequate abstraction level. For example a transport planner is more interested in the exact mathematical formula and used parameters, whereas a decision maker is more interested in the overall impact a policy might have. To present the simulation outcomes appropriately, it is necessary to map the spatial effects chronologically. The integration of the dynamic cartography application ANIMAP in MARS enables the visualisation of the historic and spatial development of an arbitrary number of indicators. The objective of this paper is to describe the technical implementation of temporal-spatial mapping and to illustrate how this improvement facilitates communication and understanding between model developers and stakeholder groups.

The Bipolar Metropolitan Region Vienna–Bratislava

The Austrian capital Vienna and the Slovakian capital Bratislava are situated at a distance of only about 60 km from each other. Due to iron curtains, they had been separated for decades. The EU accession of Slovakia finally ended this period and created a highly dynamic metropolitan region. Static transport and land use modelling are seen as inappropriate in such circumstances. The Institute of Transportation, Vienna University of Technology has extensive experience in the application of the methods of System Dynamics in land use and transport planning. The chapter starts with a presentation of the use of the qualitative method of causal loop diagrams (CLD) as a tool to improve the understanding of a functional urban region. The findings of this qualitative analysis were used to develop the operational, quantitative land use, and transport interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator). The application of the model MARS is presented and discussed using a case study of the metropolitan region Vienna–Bratislava.

Development of a Hierarchical Approach to Assess the Impacts of Transport Policies

Sustainability is one of today s major challenges. A widely accepted definition is based on intergenerational equity and sub-objectives. Studies provide evidence that our cities do not fulfil the requirements of complexity of this task requires suitable planning tools. The aim of this paper is to present a hierarchical modelling approach to assess the effects of transport and land use projects and instruments. First a brief definition of the overall objective sustainability is given. This is followed by the description of the suggested hierarchical approach. A strategic, dynamic land use and transport interaction model builds the basis and is linked to models on a different spatial and functional level. A case study covering the Spanish region of Madrid (fiComunidad de Madridfl) was selected to demonstrate the applicability. In particular the effects of the public transport infrastructure projects, the extension of the metro line number 9 and bus lanes on all radial highways, should be assessed. It is demonstrated that the suggested approach is applicable and suitable. The overall effect of the metro line extension and the bus lanes is positive. Nevertheless their contribution to a sustainable urban region is limited. Comprehensive strategies are needed to achieve the objective of sustainability. It could be shown that the projects can even have some negative local effects in the long term. Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering