Paul R. Shafer

Influence of Tobacco Displays and Ads on Youth: A Virtual Store Experiment

OBJECTIVE: To examine the potential impact of banning tobacco displays and ads at the point of sale (POS) on youth outcomes. METHODS: An interactive virtual convenience store was created with scenarios in which the tobacco product display at the POS was either openly visible (status quo) or enclosed behind a cabinet (display ban), and tobacco ads in the store were either present or absent. A national convenience sample of 1216 youth aged 13 to 17 who were either smokers or nonsmokers susceptible to smoking participated in the study. Youth were randomized to 1 of 6 virtual store conditions and given a shopping task to complete in the virtual store. During the shopping task, we tracked youth’s attempts to purchase tobacco products. Subsequently, youth completed a survey that assessed their perceptions about the virtual store and perceptions about the ease of buying cigarettes from the virtual store. RESULTS: Compared with youth in the status quo condition, youth in the display ban condition were less aware that tobacco products were for sale (32.0% vs 85.2%) and significantly less likely to try purchasing tobacco products in the virtual store (odds ratio = 0.30, 95% confidence interval = 0.13−0.67, P < .001). Banning ads had minimal impact on youth’s purchase attempts. CONCLUSIONS: Policies that ban tobacco product displays at the POS may help reduce youth smoking by deterring youth from purchasing tobacco products at retail stores.

The Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Laws on Restaurants and Bars in 9 States

Introduction Smoke-free air laws in restaurants and bars protect patrons and workers from involuntary exposure to secondhand smoke, but owners often express concern that such laws will harm their businesses. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the association between local smoke-free air laws and economic outcomes in restaurants and bars in 8 states without statewide smoke-free air laws: Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia. A secondary objective was to examine the economic impact of a 2010 statewide smoke-free restaurant and bar law in North Carolina. Methods Using quarterly data from 2000 through 2010, we estimated dynamic panel data models for employment and sales in restaurants and bars. The models controlled for smoke-free laws, general economic activity, cigarette sales, and seasonality. We included data from 216 smoke-free cities and counties in the analysis. During the study period, only North Carolina had a statewide law banning smoking in restaurants or bars. Separate models were estimated for each state. Results In West Virginia, smoke-free laws were associated with a significant increase of approximately 1% in restaurant employment. In the remaining 8 states, we found no significant association between smoke-free laws and employment or sales in restaurants and bars. Conclusion Results suggest that smoke-free laws did not have an adverse economic impact on restaurants or bars in any of the states studied; they provided a small economic benefit in 1 state. On the basis of these findings, we would not expect a statewide smoke-free law in Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, or West Virginia to have an adverse economic impact on restaurants or bars in those states.

Quit Methods Used by US Adult Cigarette Smokers, 2014–2016

To quantify the prevalence of 10 quit methods commonly used by adult cigarette smokers, we used data from a nationally representative longitudinal (2014–2016) online survey of US adult cigarette smokers (n = 15,943). Overall, 74.7% of adult current cigarette smokers used multiple quit methods during their most recent quit attempt. Giving up cigarettes all at once (65.3%) and reducing the number of cigarettes smoked (62.0%) were the most prevalent methods. Substituting some cigarettes with e-cigarettes was used by a greater percentage of smokers than the nicotine patch, nicotine gum, or other cessation aids approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. Further research into the effectiveness of e-cigarettes as a cessation aid is warranted.

Does Digital Video Advertising Increase Population-Level Reach of Multimedia Campaigns? Evidence From the 2013 Tips From Former Smokers Campaign

Background Federal and state public health agencies in the United States are increasingly using digital advertising and social media to promote messages from broader multimedia campaigns. However, little evidence exists on population-level campaign awareness and relative cost efficiencies of digital advertising in the context of a comprehensive public health education campaign. Objective Our objective was to compare the impact of increased doses of digital video and television advertising from the 2013 Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign on overall campaign awareness at the population level. We also compared the relative cost efficiencies across these media platforms. Methods We used data from a large national online survey of approximately 15,000 US smokers conducted in 2013 immediately after the conclusion of the 2013 Tips campaign. These data were used to compare the effects of variation in media dose of digital video and television advertising on population-level awareness of the Tips campaign. We implemented higher doses of digital video among selected media markets and randomly selected other markets to receive similar higher doses of television ads. Multivariate logistic regressions estimated the odds of overall campaign awareness via digital or television format as a function of higher-dose media in each market area. All statistical tests used the .05 threshold for statistical significance and the .10 level for marginal nonsignificance. We used adjusted advertising costs for the additional doses of digital and television advertising to compare the cost efficiencies of digital and television advertising on the basis of costs per percentage point of population awareness generated. Results Higher-dose digital video advertising was associated with 94% increased odds of awareness of any ad online relative to standard-dose markets (P<.001). Higher-dose digital advertising was associated with a marginally nonsignificant increase (46%) in overall campaign awareness regardless of media format (P=.09). Higher-dose television advertising was associated with 81% increased odds of overall ad awareness regardless of media format (P<.001). Increased doses of television advertising were also associated with significantly higher odds of awareness of any ad on television (P<.001) and online (P=.04). The adjusted cost of each additional percentage point of population-level reach generated by higher doses of advertising was approximately US

The Dose-Response Relationship Between Tobacco Education Advertising and Calls to Quitlines in the United States, March-June, 2012.

440,000 for digital advertising and US

Evaluation of the National Tips From Former Smokers Campaign: the 2014 Longitudinal Cohort

1 million for television advertising. Conclusions Television advertising generated relatively higher levels of overall campaign awareness. However, digital video was relatively more cost efficient for generating awareness. These results suggest that digital video may be used as a cost-efficient complement to traditional advertising modes (eg, television), but digital video should not replace television given the relatively smaller audience size of digital video viewers.

Association Between Media Dose, Ad Tagging, and Changes in Web Traffic for a National Tobacco Education Campaign: A Market-Level Longitudinal Study.

Introduction We estimated changes in call volume in the United States in response to increases in advertising doses of the Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign, the first federal national tobacco education campaign, which aired for 12 weeks from March 19 to June 10, 2012. We also measured the effectiveness of ad taglines that promoted calls directly with a quitline number (1-800-QUIT-NOW) and indirectly with a cessation help website (Smokefree.gov). Methods Multivariate regressions estimated the weekly number of calls to 1–800-QUIT-NOW by area code as a function of weekly market-level gross rating points (GRPs) from CDC’s Tips campaign in 2012. The number of quitline calls attributable solely to Tips was predicted. Results For quitline-tagged ads, an additional 100 television GRPs per week was associated with an increase of 89 calls per week in a typical area code in the United States (P < .001). The same unit increase in advertising GRPs for ads tagged with Smokefree.gov was associated with an increase of 29 calls per week in any given area code (P < .001). We estimated that the Tips campaign was responsible for more than 170,000 additional calls to 1–800-QUIT-NOW during the campaign and that it would have generated approximately 140,000 additional calls if all ads were tagged with 1–800-QUIT-NOW. Conclusion For campaign planners, these results make it possible to estimate 1) the likely impact of tobacco prevention media buys and 2) the additional quitline capacity needed at the national level should future campaigns of similar scale use 1–800-QUIT-NOW taglines exclusively.

Comparing Trends Between Food Insecurity and Cigarette Smoking Among Adults in the United States, 1998 to 2011

Introduction Since 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has aired a national tobacco education campaign to encourage quitting, Tips From Former Smokers (Tips), which consists of graphic antismoking advertisements that feature former cigarette smokers. We evaluated phase 2 of the 2014 campaign by using a nationally representative longitudinal cohort. Methods Cigarette smokers who participated in a baseline survey were re-contacted for follow-up (n = 4,248) approximately 4 months later, immediately after the campaign’s conclusion. The primary outcomes were incidence of a quit attempt in the previous 3 months, intention to quit within 30 days, and intention to quit within 6 months during the postcampaign period. We used multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the odds of each outcome. We also stratified models by race/ethnicity, education, and mental health status. Postcampaign rates of quit attempts, intentions to quit, and sustained quits were also estimated. Results Exposure to the campaign was associated with increased odds of a quit attempt in the previous 3 months (OR, 1.17; P = .03) among baseline smokers and intentions to quit within the next 6 months (OR, 1.28; P = .01) among current smokers at follow-up. The Tips campaign was associated with an estimated 1.83 million additional quit attempts, 1.73 million additional smokers intending to quit within 6 months, and 104,000 sustained quits of at least 6 months. Conclusion The Tips campaign continued to have a significant impact on cessation-related behaviors, providing further justification for the continued use of tobacco education campaigns to accelerate progress toward the goal of reducing adult smoking in the United States.

Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Air Laws in North Dakota on Restaurants and Bars

Background In 2012, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) launched Tips From Former Smokers (Tips), the first federally funded national tobacco education campaign. In 2013, a follow-up Tips campaign aired on national cable television networks, radio, and other channels, with supporting digital advertising to drive traffic to the Tips campaign website. Objective The objective of this study was to use geographic and temporal variability in 2013 Tips campaign television media doses and ad tagging to evaluate changes in traffic to the campaign website in response to specific doses of campaign media. Methods Linear regression models were used to estimate the dose-response relationship between weekly market-level television gross rating points (GRPs) and weekly Web traffic to the Tips campaign website. This relationship was measured using unique visitors, total visits, and page views as outcomes. Ad GRP effects were estimated separately for ads tagged with the Tips campaign website URL and 1-800-QUIT-NOW. Results In the average media market, an increase of 100 television GRPs per week for ads tagged with the Tips campaign website URL was associated with an increase of 650 unique visitors (P<.001), 769 total visits (P<.001), and 1255 total page views (P<.001) per week. The associations between GRPs for ads tagged with 1-800-QUIT-NOW and each Web traffic measure were also statistically significant (P<.001), but smaller in magnitude. Conclusions Based on these findings, we estimate that the 16-week 2013 Tips television campaign generated approximately 660,000 unique visitors, 900,000 total visits, and 1,390,000 page views for the Tips campaign website. These findings can help campaign planners forecast the likely impact of targeted advertising efforts on consumers’ use of campaign-specific websites.

Impact of introduction of the 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine on vaccination coverage of youth in North Carolina

Purpose: Previous studies have shown that cigarette smoking is associated with higher rates and severity of food insecurity but do not address how population-level smoking rates change in response to changes in food security. Design: Trend analysis of serial cross-sectional data. Setting: Data from a representative survey of US households. Participants: Adults within households participating in both the Food Security Supplement and Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey during 5 overlapping administrations from 1998 to 2011. Measures: A “current smoker” is defined as someone who indicated that they currently smoke on “some days” or “every day.” A household’s food security is coded as “secure” or “insecure,” according to responses to a food security scale, interpreted using a US Department of Agriculture standard. Analysis: Descriptive comparison of the roughly triennial trends in the prevalence of food insecurity and current smoking from 1998 to 2011. Results: The prevalence of food insecurity increased by 30% among adults overall versus 54% among current smokers, with most of the changes occurring following the economic recession of 2008 and 2009. Over this same period, the prevalence of current smoking declined by 33% among food-secure adults and only 14% among food-insecure adults. Conclusion: Food insecurity increased more markedly among adult smokers than nonsmokers, and the prevalence of smoking declined more slowly in food-insecure households, indicating that more low-income smokers are facing hunger, which may at least partly be due to buying cigarettes.