Paul R. Smit

Homicide Data in Europe: Definitions, Sources, and Statistics

In this chapter we address differing definitions on homicide, available data sources and the quality of the data. Apart from complications with translation‖the translation of the term “homicide” in another language does not necessarily cover the exact notion of homicide in the English context‖definitions of homicide between countries are different for various reasons. First, the notions of premeditated and intentional homicide are not everywhere used in the same way, and in particular intentional homicide is not in every country seen as an essential element of homicide as it is in the definition used for international data sources. Second, there are several “special” forms of homicide, such as euthanasia and abortion, that may or may not be part of the definition of homicide. For national data sources it is shown which elements are part of the homicide statistics and which elements could be included or excluded dependent on the definitions used by international data sources. The quality of homicide data is dependent on reliability and completeness. Whether to include attempted homicides is an important issue here; but the questions whether missing persons could be the victim of a homicide or whether the cause of death is correctly established are relevant. Also, the way statistical (counting) rules are applied have an impact on the results.

Homicide in the Netherlands: on the structuring of homicide typologies

The findings of a survey of all homicides in 1998 in the Netherlands are briefly presented. After describing characteristics of the incident, the offender, and the victim, multivariate relations between these characteristics are investigated. It appears that homicide cases are structured in an interpretable way in which a previous classification can be accommodated. The analysis, however, also indicates that homicide types do not constitute distinct groups but instead rank along a circular continuum.

Homicide in the Netherlands: An Exploratory Study of the 1998 Cases

There has been little systematic information presented about homicides in the Netherlands. To address this scarcity of literature, an exploratory, descriptive survey of all homicides in 1998 in the Netherlands is presented. Following the tradition of classic U.S. studies, characteristics of offenders, victims, and characteristics of homicide incidents are presented. After a description of the characteristics of the incident, the offender, and the victim, a number of relations between these characteristics are investigated. Suggestions are made for future research, especially complex analyses to determine more precise, and perhaps more meaningful, descriptions of homicide types.

Crime and Punishment in the Netherlands, 1980-1999

According to police data, crime rates in the Netherlands increased for almost all offenses from 1980 to 1999. Victim survey data often show different patterns. Victim survey questions, however, do not always match police categorizations, and victim surveys are often too short or unstable to investigate these differences well. The system has become increasingly efficient in identifying offenses that have a greater likelihood of ending up in conviction. Sanctioning increasingly is deflected to the prosecutors office, probably at the expense of conditional sentences. Pressure on prison space was mitigated through increasing use of community sanctions for less serious offenses. Sentence severity appears fairly stable for most offenses except rape, for which sentence lengths increased strongly.

On the interaction between forecasts and policy decisions

Forecasting systems require large quantities of data as input for reliable and adequate estimates. These estimates are used by policy makers to develop and implement effective and sound planning policies. In this case study, a forecasting system is presented to estimate the capacity needed in the near future in the Dutch justice field that has been in use already for more than ten years. Based on thousands of regression equations describing the behaviour and interaction of some 1500 variables, both inside and outside the justice field, it is performing better than other methods like simple extrapolations. The forecasts, on which the effects of future policy measures are added as well, are used for the budgeting of the Ministry of Justice. Besides, an example is given of a scenario study - a what/if analysis - where the forecasting system is used to look into the effects on the prison capacity needed if either the number of crimes or the way the criminal justice system reacts on crimes changes.

A method for explaining and predicting trends: an application to the Dutch justice system

A method, named Trendwatch, has been developed for explaining and predicting trends in which a structural break has occurred. Using this method it is possible to explain such a break in terms of causal networks of factors. The thus created explanation is validated using evidential arguments based on expert opinions. Moreover, this explanation is used to predict the future course of the trend after the break. To do so, experts are asked to predict the development of the factors at the beginning of the explanation.