Paul Rutter

Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study

Objective To establish mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza up to 8 November 2009. Design Investigation of all reported deaths related to pandemic A/H1N1 in England. Setting Mandatory reporting systems established in acute hospitals and primary care. Participants Physicians responsible for the patient. Main outcome measures Numbers of deaths from influenza combined with mid-range estimates of numbers of cases of influenza to calculate age specific case fatality rates. Underlying conditions, time course of illness, and antiviral treatment. Results With the official mid-range estimate for incidence of pandemic A/H1N1, the overall estimated case fatality rate was 26 (range 11-66) per 100 000. It was lowest for children aged 5-14 (11 (range 3-36) per 100 000) and highest for those aged ≥65 (980 (range 300-3200) per 100 000). In the 138 people in whom the confirmed cause of death was pandemic A/H1N1, the median age was 39 (interquartile range 17-57). Two thirds of patients who died (92, 67%) would now be eligible for the first phase of vaccination in England. Fifty (36%) had no, or only mild, pre-existing illness. Most patients (108, 78%) had been prescribed antiviral drugs, but of these, 82 (76%) did not receive them within the first 48 hours of illness. Conclusions Viewed statistically, mortality in this pandemic compares favourably with 20th century influenza pandemics. A lower population impact than previous pandemics, however, is not a justification for public health inaction. Our data support the priority vaccination of high risk groups. We observed delayed antiviral use in most fatal cases, which suggests an opportunity to reduce deaths by making timely antiviral treatment available, although the lack of a control group limits the ability to extrapolate from this observation. Given that a substantial minority of deaths occur in previously healthy people, there is a case for extending the vaccination programme and for continuing to make early antiviral treatment widely available.

Hospitalization in two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England

Uncertainties exist regarding the population risks of hospitalization due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Understanding these risks is important for patients, clinicians and policy makers. This study aimed to clarify these uncertainties. A national surveillance system was established for patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England. Information was captured on demographics, pre-existing conditions, treatment and outcomes. The relative risks of hospitalization associated with pre-existing conditions were estimated by combining the captured data with population prevalence estimates. A total of 2416 hospitalizations were reported up to 6 January 2010. Within the population, 4·7 people/100,000 were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A(H1N1). The estimated hospitalization rate of cases showed a U-shaped distribution with age. Chronic kidney disease, chronic neurological disease, chronic respiratory disease and immunosuppression were each associated with a 10- to 20-fold increased risk of hospitalization. Patients who received antiviral medication within 48 h of symptom onset were less likely to be admitted to critical care than those who received them after this time (adjusted odds ratio 0·64, 95% confidence interval 0·44-0·94, P=0·024). In England the risk of hospitalization with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has been concentrated in the young and those with pre-existing conditions. By quantifying these risks, this study will prove useful in planning for the next winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, and for future pandemics.

Mortality due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in England: a comparison of the first and second waves.

Deaths in England attributable to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 deaths were investigated through a mandatory reporting system. The pandemic came in two waves. The second caused greater population mortality than the first (5·4 vs. 1·6 deaths per million, P<0·001). Mortality was particularly high in those with chronic neurological disease, chronic heart disease and immune suppression (450, 100, and 94 deaths per million, respectively); significantly higher than in those with chronic respiratory disease (39 per million) and those with no risk factors (2·4 per million). Greater mortality in the second wave has been observed in all previous influenza pandemics. This time, the explanation appears to be behavioural. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining public and clinical awareness of risks associated with pandemic influenza beyond the initial high-profile period.

What is the risk of death or severe harm due to bone cement implantation syndrome among patients undergoing hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur? A patient safety surveillance study

Objective To estimate the risk of death or severe harm due to bone cement implantation syndrome (BCIS) among patients undergoing hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur. Setting Hospitals providing secondary and tertiary care throughout the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. Participants Cases reported to the National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS) in which the reporter clearly describes severe acute patient deterioration associated with cement use in hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur (assessed independently by two reviewers). Outcome measures Primary—number of reported deaths, cardiac arrests and periarrests per year. Secondary—timing of deterioration and outcome in relation to cement insertion. Results Between 2005 and 2012, the NRLS received 62 reports that clearly describe death or severe harm associated with the use of cement in hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur. There was one such incident for every 2900 hemiarthroplasties for fractured neck of femur during the period. Of the 62 reports, 41 patients died, 14 were resuscitated from cardiac arrest and 7 from periarrest. Most reports (55/62, 89%) describe acute deterioration occurring during or within a few minutes of cement insertion. The vast majority of deaths (33/41, 80%) occurred on the operating table. Conclusions These reports provide narrative evidence from England and Wales that cement use in hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur is associated with instances of perioperative death or severe harm consistent with BCIS. In 2009, the National Patient Safety Agency publicised this issue and encouraged the use of mitigation measures. Three-quarters of the deaths in this study have occurred since that alert, suggesting incomplete implementation or effectiveness of those mitigation measures. There is a need for stronger evidence that weighs the risks and benefits of cement in hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur.

Oversight Role of the Independent Monitoring Board of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) established its Independent Monitoring Board (IMB) in 2010 to monitor and guide its progress toward stopping polio transmission globally. The concept of an IMB is innovative, with no clear analogue in the history of the GPEI or in any other global health program. The IMB meets with senior program officials every 3-6 months. Its reports provide analysis and recommendations about individual polio-affected countries. The IMB also examines issues affecting the global program as a whole. Its areas of focus have included escalating the level of priority afforded to polio eradication (particularly by recommending a World Health Assembly resolution to declare polio eradication a programmatic emergency, which was enacted in May 2012), placing greater emphasis on people factors in the delivery of the program, encouraging innovation, strengthening focus on the small number of so-called sanctuaries where polio persists, and continuous quality improvement to reach every missed child with vaccination. The IMBs true independence from the agencies and countries delivering the program has enabled it to raise difficult issues that others cannot. Other global health programs might benefit from establishing similar independent monitoring mechanisms.

Access to the NHS by telephone and Internet during an influenza pandemic: an observational study

Objectives To examine use of a novel telephone and Internet service—the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS)—by the population of England during the 2009–2010 influenza pandemic. Setting National telephone and Internet-based service. Participants Service available to population of England (n=51.8 million). Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary: service use rate, by week. Numbers and age-specific and sex-specific rates of population who: accessed service; were authorised to collect antiviral medication; collected antiviral medication; were advised to seek further face-to-face assessment. Secondary: daily mean contacts by hour; proportion using service by telephone/Internet. Results The NPFS was activated on 23 July 2009, operated for 204 days and assessed 2.7 million patients (5200 consultations/100 000 population). This was six times the number of people who consulted their general practitioner with influenza-like illness during the same period (823 consultations/100 000 population, rate ratio (RR)=6.30, 95% CI 6.28 to 6.32). Women used the service more than men (52.6 vs 43.4 assessments/1000 population, RR1 21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Among adults, use of the service declined with age (16–29 years: 74.4 vs 65 years+: 9.9 assessments/1000 population (RR 7.46 95% CI 7.41 to 7.52). Almost three-quarters of those assessed met the criteria to receive antiviral medication (1 807 866/2 488 510; 72.6%). Most of the people subsequently collected this medication, although more than one-third did not (n=646 709; 35.8%). Just over one-third of those assessed were advised to seek further face-to-face assessment with a practitioner (951 332/2 488 504; 38.2%). Conclusions This innovative healthcare service operated at large scale and achieved its aim of relieving considerable pressure from mainstream health services, while providing appropriate initial assessment and management for patients. This offers proof-of-concept for such a service that, with further refinement, England can use in future pandemics. Other countries may wish to adopt a similar system as part of their pandemic emergency planning.

Comparisons with recent flu mortality

How do the number of deaths from pandemic A/H1N1 compare with influenza related mortality in recent years?1 2 The official estimate of influenza mortality is produced by the Health Protection Agency (HPA). It is derived from excess (above “expected” level) all cause death registrations in the winter. The estimates for the past five years in England and Wales are: 1965 (2004-5 winter season), 0 (2005-6), …

End pharmacists’ monopoly on selling certain drugs

Evidence is lacking that oversight by pharmacists has benefits, writes Paul Rutter, who thinks that the US dichotomy of prescription-only and non-prescription drugs is simpler

Development of an evaluation framework for African–European hospital patient safety partnerships

Background Patient safety is recognised as a significant healthcare problem worldwide, and healthcare-associated infections are an important aspect. African Partnerships for Patient Safety is a WHO programme that pairs hospitals in Africa with hospitals in Europe with the objective to work together to improve patient safety. Objective To describe the development of an evaluation framework for hospital-to-hospital partnerships participating in the programme. Methods The framework was structured around the programmes three core objectives: facilitate strong interhospital partnerships, improve in-hospital patient safety and spread best practices nationally. Africa-based clinicians, their European partners and experts in patient safety were closely involved in developing the evaluation framework in an iterative process. Results The process defined six domains of partnership strength, each with measurable subdomains. We developed a questionnaire to measure these subdomains. Participants selected six indicators of hospital patient safety improvement from a short-list of 22 based on their relevance, sensitivity to intervention and measurement feasibility. Participants proposed 20 measures of spread, which were refined into a two-part conceptual framework, and a data capture tool created. Conclusion Taking a highly participatory approach that closely involved its end users, we developed an evaluation framework and tools to measure partnership strength, patient safety improvements and the spread of best practice.