Paul Sherliker

Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND The main associations of body-mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. The Prospective Studies Collaboration aimed to investigate these associations by sharing data from many studies. METHODS Collaborative analyses were undertaken of baseline BMI versus mortality in 57 prospective studies with 894 576 participants, mostly in western Europe and North America (61% [n=541 452] male, mean recruitment age 46 [SD 11] years, median recruitment year 1979 [IQR 1975-85], mean BMI 25 [SD 4] kg/m(2)). The analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, and study. To limit reverse causality, the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded, leaving 66 552 deaths of known cause during a mean of 8 (SD 6) further years of follow-up (mean age at death 67 [SD 10] years): 30 416 vascular; 2070 diabetic, renal or hepatic; 22 592 neoplastic; 3770 respiratory; 7704 other. FINDINGS In both sexes, mortality was lowest at about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). Above this range, positive associations were recorded for several specific causes and inverse associations for none, the absolute excess risks for higher BMI and smoking were roughly additive, and each 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was on average associated with about 30% higher overall mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg/m(2) [HR] 1.29 [95% CI 1.27-1.32]): 40% for vascular mortality (HR 1.41 [1.37-1.45]); 60-120% for diabetic, renal, and hepatic mortality (HRs 2.16 [1.89-2.46], 1.59 [1.27-1.99], and 1.82 [1.59-2.09], respectively); 10% for neoplastic mortality (HR 1.10 [1.06-1.15]); and 20% for respiratory and for all other mortality (HRs 1.20 [1.07-1.34] and 1.20 [1.16-1.25], respectively). Below the range 22.5-25 kg/m(2), BMI was associated inversely with overall mortality, mainly because of strong inverse associations with respiratory disease and lung cancer. These inverse associations were much stronger for smokers than for non-smokers, despite cigarette consumption per smoker varying little with BMI. INTERPRETATION Although other anthropometric measures (eg, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) could well add extra information to BMI, and BMI to them, BMI is in itself a strong predictor of overall mortality both above and below the apparent optimum of about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). The progressive excess mortality above this range is due mainly to vascular disease and is probably largely causal. At 30-35 kg/m(2), median survival is reduced by 2-4 years; at 40-45 kg/m(2), it is reduced by 8-10 years (which is comparable with the effects of smoking). The definite excess mortality below 22.5 kg/m(2) is due mainly to smoking-related diseases, and is not fully explained.Summary Background The main associations of body-mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. The Prospective Studies Collaboration aimed to investigate these associations by sharing data from many studies. Methods Collaborative analyses were undertaken of baseline BMI versus mortality in 57 prospective studies with 894 576 participants, mostly in western Europe and North America (61% [n=541 452] male, mean recruitment age 46 [SD 11] years, median recruitment year 1979 [IQR 1975–85], mean BMI 25 [SD 4] kg/m2). The analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, and study. To limit reverse causality, the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded, leaving 66 552 deaths of known cause during a mean of 8 (SD 6) further years of follow-up (mean age at death 67 [SD 10] years): 30 416 vascular; 2070 diabetic, renal or hepatic; 22 592 neoplastic; 3770 respiratory; 7704 other. Findings In both sexes, mortality was lowest at about 22·5–25 kg/m2. Above this range, positive associations were recorded for several specific causes and inverse associations for none, the absolute excess risks for higher BMI and smoking were roughly additive, and each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was on average associated with about 30% higher overall mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg/m2 [HR] 1·29 [95% CI 1·27–1·32]): 40% for vascular mortality (HR 1·41 [1·37–1·45]); 60–120% for diabetic, renal, and hepatic mortality (HRs 2·16 [1·89–2·46], 1·59 [1·27–1·99], and 1·82 [1·59–2·09], respectively); 10% for neoplastic mortality (HR 1·10 [1·06–1·15]); and 20% for respiratory and for all other mortality (HRs 1·20 [1·07–1·34] and 1·20 [1·16–1·25], respectively). Below the range 22·5–25 kg/m2, BMI was associated inversely with overall mortality, mainly because of strong inverse associations with respiratory disease and lung cancer. These inverse associations were much stronger for smokers than for non-smokers, despite cigarette consumption per smoker varying little with BMI. Interpretation Although other anthropometric measures (eg, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) could well add extra information to BMI, and BMI to them, BMI is in itself a strong predictor of overall mortality both above and below the apparent optimum of about 22·5–25 kg/m2. The progressive excess mortality above this range is due mainly to vascular disease and is probably largely causal. At 30–35 kg/m2, median survival is reduced by 2–4 years; at 40–45 kg/m2, it is reduced by 8–10 years (which is comparable with the effects of smoking). The definite excess mortality below 22·5 kg/m2 is due mainly to smoking-related diseases, and is not fully explained. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, EU BIOMED programme, US National Institute on Aging, and Clinical Trial Service Unit (Oxford, UK).

Blood cholesterol and vascular mortality by age, sex, and blood pressure: a meta-analysis of individual data from 61 prospective studies with 55,000 vascular deaths.

BACKGROUND Age, sex, and blood pressure could modify the associations of total cholesterol (and its main two fractions, HDL and LDL cholesterol) with vascular mortality. This meta-analysis combined prospective studies of vascular mortality that recorded both blood pressure and total cholesterol at baseline, to determine the joint relevance of these two risk factors. METHODS Information was obtained from 61 prospective observational studies, mostly in western Europe or North America, consisting of almost 900,000 adults without previous disease and with baseline measurements of total cholesterol and blood pressure. During nearly 12 million person years at risk between the ages of 40 and 89 years, there were more than 55,000 vascular deaths (34,000 ischaemic heart disease [IHD], 12,000 stroke, 10,000 other). Information about HDL cholesterol was available for 150,000 participants, among whom there were 5000 vascular deaths (3000 IHD, 1000 stroke, 1000 other). Reported associations are with usual cholesterol levels (ie, corrected for the regression dilution bias). FINDINGS 1 mmol/L lower total cholesterol was associated with about a half (hazard ratio 0.44 [95% CI 0.42-0.48]), a third (0.66 [0.65-0.68]), and a sixth (0.83 [0.81-0.85]) lower IHD mortality in both sexes at ages 40-49, 50-69, and 70-89 years, respectively, throughout the main range of cholesterol in most developed countries, with no apparent threshold. The proportional risk reduction decreased with increasing blood pressure, since the absolute effects of cholesterol and blood pressure were approximately additive. Of various simple indices involving HDL cholesterol, the ratio total/HDL cholesterol was the strongest predictor of IHD mortality (40% more informative than non-HDL cholesterol and more than twice as informative as total cholesterol). Total cholesterol was weakly positively related to ischaemic and total stroke mortality in early middle age (40-59 years), but this finding could be largely or wholly accounted for by the association of cholesterol with blood pressure. Moreover, a positive relation was seen only in middle age and only in those with below-average blood pressure; at older ages (70-89 years) and, particularly, for those with systolic blood pressure over about 145 mm Hg, total cholesterol was negatively related to haemorrhagic and total stroke mortality. The results for other vascular mortality were intermediate between those for IHD and stroke. INTERPRETATION Total cholesterol was positively associated with IHD mortality in both middle and old age and at all blood pressure levels. The absence of an independent positive association of cholesterol with stroke mortality, especially at older ages or higher blood pressures, is unexplained, and invites further research. Nevertheless, there is conclusive evidence from randomised trials that statins substantially reduce not only coronary event rates but also total stroke rates in patients with a wide range of ages and blood pressures.

Alcohol and mortality in Russia: prospective observational study of 151 000 adults

Summary Background Russian adults have extraordinarily high rates of premature death. Retrospective enquiries to the families of about 50 000 deceased Russians had found excess vodka use among those dying from external causes (accident, suicide, violence) and eight particular disease groupings. We now seek prospective evidence of these associations. Methods In three Russian cities (Barnaul, Byisk, and Tomsk), we interviewed 200 000 adults during 1999–2008 (with 12 000 re-interviewed some years later) and followed them until 2010 for cause-specific mortality. In 151 000 with no previous disease and some follow-up at ages 35–74 years, Poisson regression (adjusted for age at risk, amount smoked, education, and city) was used to calculate the relative risks associating vodka consumption with mortality. We have combined these relative risks with age-specific death rates to get 20-year absolute risks. Findings Among 57 361 male smokers with no previous disease, the estimated 20-year risks of death at ages 35–54 years were 16% (95% CI 15–17) for those who reported consuming less than a bottle of vodka per week at baseline, 20% (18–22) for those consuming 1–2·9 bottles per week, and 35% (31–39) for those consuming three or more bottles per week; trend p<0·0001. The corresponding risks of death at ages 55–74 years were 50% (48–52) for those who reported consuming less than a bottle of vodka per week at baseline, 54% (51–57) for those consuming 1–2·9 bottles per week, and 64% (59–69) for those consuming three or more bottles per week; trend p<0·0001. In both age ranges most of the excess mortality in heavier drinkers was from external causes or the eight disease groupings strongly associated with alcohol in the retrospective enquiries. Self-reported drinking fluctuated; of the men who reported drinking three or more bottles of vodka per week who were reinterviewed a few years later, about half (185 of 321) then reported drinking less than one bottle per week. Such fluctuations must have substantially attenuated the apparent hazards of heavy drinking in this study, yet self-reported vodka use at baseline still strongly predicted risk. Among male non-smokers and among females, self-reported heavy drinking was uncommon, but seemed to involve similar absolute excess risks. Interpretation This large prospective study strongly reinforces other evidence that vodka is a major cause of the high risk of premature death in Russian adults. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union, WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Seasonal variation in blood pressure and its relationship with outdoor temperature in 10 diverse regions of China: the China Kadoorie Biobank.

Objectives: Mean blood pressure varies moderately with outdoor air temperature in many western populations. Substantial uncertainty exists, however, about the strength of the relationship in other populations and its relevance to age, adiposity, medical treatment, climate and housing conditions. Methods: To investigate the relationship of blood pressure with season and outdoor temperature, we analysed cross-sectional data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 506 673 adults aged 30–79 years recruited from 10 diverse urban and rural regions in China. Analyses related mean blood pressure – overall and in various subgroups – to mean local outdoor temperature. Results: The mean difference in SBP between summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) was 10 mmHg overall, and was more extreme, on average, in rural than in urban areas (12 vs. 8 mmHg; P for interaction <0.0001). Above 5°C, SBP was strongly inversely associated with outdoor temperature in all 10 areas studied, with 5.7 (SE 0.04) mmHg higher SBP per 10°C lower outdoor temperature. The association was stronger in older people and in those with lower BMI. At lower temperatures, there was no evidence of an association among participants who reported having central heating in their homes. Conclusion: Blood pressure was strongly inversely associated with outdoor temperature in Chinese adults across a range of climatic conditions, although access to home central heating appeared to remove much of the association during the winter months. Seasonal variation in blood pressure should be considered in the clinical management of hypertension.

Epidemiology of Atherosclerosis and the Potential to Reduce the Global Burden of Atherothrombotic Disease.

Atherosclerosis is a leading cause of vascular disease worldwide. Its major clinical manifestations include ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. In high-income countries, there have been dramatic declines in the incidence and mortality from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke since the middle of the 20th century. For example, in the United Kingdom, the probability of death from vascular disease in middle-aged men (35-69 years) has decreased from 22% in 1950 to 6% in 2010. Most low- and middle-income countries have also reported declines in mortality from stroke over the last few decades, but mortality trends from ischemic heart disease have been more varied, with some countries reporting declines and others reporting increases (particularly those in Eastern Europe and Asia). Many major modifiable risk factors for atherosclerosis have been identified, and the causal relevance of several risk factors is now well established (including, but not limited to, smoking, adiposity, blood pressure, blood cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus). Widespread changes in health behaviors and use of treatments for these risk factors are responsible for some of the dramatic declines in vascular mortality in high-income countries. In order that these declines continue and are mirrored in less wealthy nations, increased efforts are needed to tackle these major risk factors, particularly smoking and the emerging obesity epidemic.

Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies

Summary Background Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the worlds cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Methods Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220 000 men in about 1991 at ages 40–79 years (first study) and 210 000 men and 300 000 women in about 2006 at ages 35–74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991–99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006–14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Findings Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 [95% CI 1·24–1·41] vs 1·65 [1·53–1·79]; rural: RR 1·13 [1·09–1·17] vs 1·22 [1·16–1·29]), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40–79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79–2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11–16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78–5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66–2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30 943, 3265/62 246, 2339/97 344, and 1068/111 933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40–1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40–79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and <1%, respectively, of all the female deaths in these four successive birth cohorts. In 2010, smoking caused about 1 million (840 000 male, 130 000 female) deaths in China. Interpretation Smoking will cause about 20% of all adult male deaths in China during the 2010s. The tobacco-attributed proportion is increasing in men, but low, and decreasing, in women. Although overall adult mortality rates are falling, as the adult population of China grows and the proportion of male deaths due to smoking increases, the annual number of deaths in China that are caused by tobacco will rise from about 1 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2030 and 3 million in 2050, unless there is widespread cessation. Funding Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC

Effects of B-vitamins on plasma homocysteine concentrations and on risk of cardiovascular disease and dementia.

Purpose of reviewDietary supplementation with folic acid and vitamin B12 lowers blood homocysteine concentrations, but it is not known if this reduces the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke. Recent findingsRecent evidence suggests that the maximum reduction in plasma homocysteine concentrations is obtained with 0.8 mg of folic acid and doses of 0.2 mg and 0.4 mg of folic acid are associated with about 60 and 90%, respectively, of this maximal effect. Among 12 large trials (involving a total of 52 000 participants) that are currently assessing the effects of B-vitamins on risk of coronary heart disease and stroke, results are available for four trials involving 14 000 participants. A meta-analysis of these four trials demonstrates no beneficial effects of B-vitamins on coronary heart disease (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.88–1.10) or stroke (OR 89; 95% CI 0.76–1.05) or the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.90–1.08). The confidence intervals around the odds ratios for these completed trials are compatible with a 10% difference in risk for coronary heart disease and 20% difference for stroke associated with a 25% lower homocysteine predicted by the observational epidemiological studies. SummaryThe results of the ongoing homocysteine-lowering trials are required before making recommendations on the use of B-vitamins for prevention of vascular disease.

Alcohol consumption in 0.5 million people from 10 diverse regions of China: prevalence, patterns and socio-demographic and health-related correlates

Background Drinking alcohol has a long tradition in Chinese culture. However, data on the prevalence and patterns of alcohol consumption in China, and its main correlates, are limited. Methods During 2004–08 the China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512 891 men and women aged 30–79 years from 10 urban and rural areas of China. Detailed information on alcohol consumption was collected using a standardized questionnaire, and related to socio-demographic, physical and behavioural characteristics in men and women separately. Results Overall, 76% of men and 36% of women reported drinking some alcohol during the past 12 months, with 33% of men and 2% of women drinking at least weekly; the prevalence of weekly drinking in men varied from 7% to 51% across the 10 study areas. Mean consumption was 286 g/week and was higher in those with less education. Most weekly drinkers habitually drank spirits, although this varied by area, and beer consumption was highest among younger drinkers; 37% of male weekly drinkers (12% of all men) reported weekly heavy drinking episodes, with the prevalence highest in younger men. Drinking alcohol was positively correlated with regular smoking, blood pressure and heart rate. Among male weekly drinkers, each 20 g/day alcohol consumed was associated with 2 mmHg higher systolic blood pressure. Potential indicators of problem drinking were reported by 24% of male weekly drinkers. Conclusion The prevalence and patterns of drinking in China differ greatly by age, sex and geographical region. Alcohol consumption is associated with a number of unfavourable health behaviours and characteristics.

Folate and vitamin B12 status in relation to cognitive impairment and anaemia in the setting of voluntary fortification in the UK

Concerns about risks for older people with vitamin B12 deficiency have delayed the introduction of mandatory folic acid fortification in the UK. We examined the risks of anaemia and cognitive impairment in older people with low B12 and high folate status in the setting of voluntary fortification in the UK. Data were obtained from two cross-sectional studies (n 2403) conducted in Oxford city and Banbury in 1995 and 2003, respectively. Associations (OR and 95 % CI) of cognitive impairment and of anaemia with low B12 status (holotranscobalamin < 45 pmol/l) with or without high folate status (defined either as serum folate >30 nmol/l or >60 nmol/l) were estimated after adjustment for age, sex, smoking and study. Mean serum folate levels increased from 15.8 (sd 14.7) nmol/l in 1995 to 31.1 (sd 26.2) nmol/l in 2003. Serum folate levels were greater than 30 nmol/l in 9 % and greater than 60 nmol/l in 5 %. The association of cognitive impairment with low B12 status was unaffected by high v. low folate status (>30 nmol/l) (OR 1.50 (95 % CI 0.91, 2.46) v. 1.45 (95 % CI 1.19, 1.76)), respectively. The associations of cognitive impairment with low B12 status were also similar using the higher cut-off point of 60 nmol/l for folate status ((OR 2.46; 95 % CI 0.90, 6.71) v. (1.56; 95 % CI 1.30, 1.88)). There was no evidence of modification by high folate status of the associations of low B12 with anaemia or cognitive impairment in the setting of voluntary fortification, but periodic surveys are needed to monitor fortification.

Outdoor temperature, blood pressure, and cardiovascular disease mortality among 23 000 individuals with diagnosed cardiovascular diseases from China.

Introduction Blood pressure is a major cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and both may increase as outdoor temperatures fall. However, there are still limited data about seasonal variation in blood pressure and CVD mortality among patients with prior-CVD. Methods We analysed data on 23 000 individuals with prior-CVD who were recruited from 10 diverse regions into the China Kadoorie Biobank during 2004–8. After 7 years of follow-up, 1484 CVD deaths were recorded. Baseline survey data were used to assess seasonal variation in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and its association with outdoor temperature. Cox regression was used to examine the association of usual SBP with subsequent CVD mortality, and seasonal variation in CVD mortality was assessed by Poisson regression. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and region. Results Mean SBP was significantly higher in winter than in summer (145 vs. 136 mmHg, P < 0.001), especially among those without central heating. Above 5°C, each 10°C lower outdoor temperature was associated with 6.2 mmHg higher SBP. Systolic blood pressure predicted subsequent CVD mortality, with each 10 mmHg higher usual SBP associated with 21% (95% confidence interval: 16–27%) increased risk. Cardiovascular disease mortality varied by season, with 41% (21–63%) higher risk in winter compared with summer. Conclusion Among adult Chinese with prior-CVD, there is both increased blood pressure and CVD mortality in winter. Careful monitoring and more aggressive blood pressure lowering treatment in the cold months are needed to help reduce the winter excess CVD mortality in high-risk individuals.