Paul Stevens

The determination of oil prices 1945-1995 : A diagrammatic interpretation

The paper provides a theoretical framework to explain the determination of international oil prices based upon the interaction of supply and demand curves. The analysis of components of the framework identifies important characteristics of the global market for crude oil. The paper applies the framework to the oil market from 1945. In particular, it incorporates key changes in the market to enhance understanding of how the market has been and is working. Finally, the framework is used to explain why oil prices have become more volatile and what issues and questions arise from current oil market behaviour.

Oil prices: The start of an era?

Abstract The paper argues that the international oil market has recently experienced fundamental changes which could well result in a significant discontinuity leading to much lower prices and consequent instability. The paper develops an analytical framework to explain how oil prices are determined. It then considers the future prospects for the various factors and driving forces which will influence future price. It outlines in what way the oil market environment has altered and then considers two consequences of this new environment — the volatility of oil prices and their absolute level.

The fuelwood crisis and the environment: Problems, policies and instruments

The paper defines the Third World fuelwood crisis, in a broad development context, in terms of the implications of fuelwood scarcity and environmental damage for private and public choice. It shows how the identification of the nature of the policy problems underlying the crisis influences the objectives and instruments of energy policy. The paper concludes that to get energy policy to try to be responsible for (rather than to take account of) the wider context is likely to make policy ineffective.

Increasing global dependence on Gulf oil: `This year, next year, sometime, never?'

There is a widespread view among many observers of international energy that the world will be forced into every growing dependence upon Gulf oil. This paper challenges that view. The paper begins with a brief historical survey of the role of Gulf oil in the global energy picture. It then examines the methodological basis of the conventional view of ever rising dependence upon Gulf oil. The next stage is to examine a series of arguments affecting non-GCC supplies, the demand for oil and perceptions of stability and behaviour in the Gulf which may undermine the hypothesis of ever growing dependence.