Paul Tempest

Distortion, illusion and confusion: how to improve global oil market data

Abstract This text is based on presentations by the author in the opening and closing sessions of a conference on World Oil Market Data — Enhancing Transparency called and addressed by the US Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson and Vice-President and Minister of the Economy Rodrigo de Rato and held in the Palace Hotel, Madrid on 14–15 July 2000. It was attended by 20 staff members of the US Department of Energy, 20 senior Spanish officials, one invited representative from each of 20 countries, a number of invited speakers and a group from the International Energy Agency, Paris led by Deputy Executive Director, Ambassador William Ramsay and Head of Energy Statistics, Jean-Yves Garnier. “The mind which has feasted on the luxurious wonders of fiction has no taste for the insipidity of truth” – Dr. Samuel Johnson 1709–1784

Can a third oil shock be avoided?: The changing structure of the global oil and gas industries

Abstract Fundamental — and highly encouraging — changes in the pattern of global foreign trade and investment have developed worldwide in the late 1980s. Under the impact of much new technology, this process of change is likely to accelerate in the 1990s. The petroleum industry has played a leading part in this change. Yet, as privatization, global markets, improving telecommunications and new technology provide many new opportunities and challenges, they will bring strong pressures to bear on the less flexible and increasingly less competent companies. Increasing global dependence on Gulf oil supply, tightening production, refining and transport capacity, and other shortfalls in the replacement of the capital stock of the industry all point to a hardening of oil prices, probably within the decade. To these factors must be added the risks of a major shift of energy pattern such as major closedowns of nuclear capacity, caused by another nuclear accident, widespread curtailment of the use of coal on environmental grounds, any major interruption of gas supply (eg Russian gas ceasing to reach Western Europe) or a blockage of the Straits of Hormuz. All would cause a third oil price shock of a magnitude capable of again disrupting the global economy. None the less, as far as the Middle East is concerned, there are significant new developments which may help to prevent another major political explosion and disruption of oil supply.

Playing with Middle East fire: The global energy powder keg again on short fuse

Abstract The Middle East is back on track moving towards another political explosion of global dimension and impact. The basic split between, on the one side, Saudi Arabia, the 10 emirates and Oman and the rest, remains. Four major factors all indicate an adverse trend. Rising population pressures, the neglect of land and competition for water are two. Complacency in the oil market suggests increasing reliance on the security of the Gulf states. Finally the rapid rearmament of the Middle East with new and sophisticated weaponry is accelerating. All turn to the USA to hold the delicate balance of peace. The problems of the Middle East are not likely to diminish or vanish; they demand careful understanding.

The impact of the Middle East on Pacific oil and gas markets

Abstract The Gulf war solved few of the middle Easts problems. Political uncertainty continues to place a brake on investment. The risk of oil supply security remains, but the risk of new Gulf export refining capacity and downstream investment in the Pacific area dominating and distorting these oil markets is very small. New gas exports to the Pacific may have significant impacts and help to draw the Gulf producers closer to the affluent Pacific basin economies.