Paul Welsh

Statins and risk of incident diabetes: a collaborative meta-analysis of randomised statin trials

BACKGROUND Trials of statin therapy have had conflicting findings on the risk of development of diabetes mellitus in patients given statins. We aimed to establish by a meta-analysis of published and unpublished data whether any relation exists between statin use and development of diabetes. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from 1994 to 2009, for randomised controlled endpoint trials of statins. We included only trials with more than 1000 patients, with identical follow-up in both groups and duration of more than 1 year. We excluded trials of patients with organ transplants or who needed haemodialysis. We used the I(2) statistic to measure heterogeneity between trials and calculated risk estimates for incident diabetes with random-effect meta-analysis. FINDINGS We identified 13 statin trials with 91 140 participants, of whom 4278 (2226 assigned statins and 2052 assigned control treatment) developed diabetes during a mean of 4 years. Statin therapy was associated with a 9% increased risk for incident diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.09; 95% CI 1.02-1.17), with little heterogeneity (I(2)=11%) between trials. Meta-regression showed that risk of development of diabetes with statins was highest in trials with older participants, but neither baseline body-mass index nor change in LDL-cholesterol concentrations accounted for residual variation in risk. Treatment of 255 (95% CI 150-852) patients with statins for 4 years resulted in one extra case of diabetes. INTERPRETATION Statin therapy is associated with a slightly increased risk of development of diabetes, but the risk is low both in absolute terms and when compared with the reduction in coronary events. Clinical practice in patients with moderate or high cardiovascular risk or existing cardiovascular disease should not change. FUNDING None.

Risk of incident diabetes with intensive-dose compared with moderate-dose statin therapy: a meta-analysis.

CONTEXT A recent meta-analysis demonstrated that statin therapy is associated with excess risk of developing diabetes mellitus. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether intensive-dose statin therapy is associated with increased risk of new-onset diabetes compared with moderate-dose statin therapy. DATA SOURCES We identified relevant trials in a literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (January 1, 1996, through March 31, 2011). Unpublished data were obtained from investigators. STUDY SELECTION We included randomized controlled end-point trials that compared intensive-dose statin therapy with moderate-dose statin therapy and included more than 1000 participants who were followed up for more than 1 year. DATA EXTRACTION Tabular data provided for each trial described baseline characteristics and numbers of participants developing diabetes and experiencing major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, coronary revascularization). We calculated trial-specific odds ratios (ORs) for new-onset diabetes and major cardiovascular events and combined these using random-effects model meta-analysis. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the I(2) statistic. RESULTS In 5 statin trials with 32,752 participants without diabetes at baseline, 2749 developed diabetes (1449 assigned intensive-dose therapy, 1300 assigned moderate-dose therapy, representing 2.0 additional cases in the intensive-dose group per 1000 patient-years) and 6684 experienced cardiovascular events (3134 and 3550, respectively, representing 6.5 fewer cases in the intensive-dose group per 1000 patient-years) over a weighted mean (SD) follow-up of 4.9 (1.9) years. Odds ratios were 1.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.22; I(2) = 0%) for new-onset diabetes and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75-0.94; I(2) = 74%) for cardiovascular events for participants receiving intensive therapy compared with moderate-dose therapy. As compared with moderate-dose statin therapy, the number needed to harm per year for intensive-dose statin therapy was 498 for new-onset diabetes while the number needed to treat per year for intensive-dose statin therapy was 155 for cardiovascular events. CONCLUSION In a pooled analysis of data from 5 statin trials, intensive-dose statin therapy was associated with an increased risk of new-onset diabetes compared with moderate-dose statin therapy.

Genome-wide association study of blood pressure extremes identifies variant near UMOD associated with hypertension

Hypertension is a heritable and major contributor to the global burden of disease. The sum of rare and common genetic variants robustly identified so far explain only 1%–2% of the population variation in BP and hypertension. This suggests the existence of more undiscovered common variants. We conducted a genome-wide association study in 1,621 hypertensive cases and 1,699 controls and follow-up validation analyses in 19,845 cases and 16,541 controls using an extreme case-control design. We identified a locus on chromosome 16 in the 5′ region of Uromodulin (UMOD; rs13333226, combined P value of 3.6×10−11). The minor G allele is associated with a lower risk of hypertension (OR [95%CI]: 0.87 [0.84–0.91]), reduced urinary uromodulin excretion, better renal function; and each copy of the G allele is associated with a 7.7% reduction in risk of CVD events after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, and smoking status (H.R. = 0.923, 95% CI 0.860–0.991; p = 0.027). In a subset of 13,446 individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements, we show that rs13333226 is independently associated with hypertension (unadjusted for eGFR: 0.89 [0.83–0.96], p = 0.004; after eGFR adjustment: 0.89 [0.83–0.96], p = 0.003). In clinical functional studies, we also consistently show the minor G allele is associated with lower urinary uromodulin excretion. The exclusive expression of uromodulin in the thick portion of the ascending limb of Henle suggests a putative role of this variant in hypertension through an effect on sodium homeostasis. The newly discovered UMOD locus for hypertension has the potential to give new insights into the role of uromodulin in BP regulation and to identify novel drugable targets for reducing cardiovascular risk.

Subclinical Thyroid Dysfunction and the Risk of Heart Failure in Older Persons at High Cardiovascular Risk

CONTEXT Subclinical thyroid dysfunction is common in older people. However, its clinical importance is uncertain. OBJECTIVE Our objective was to determine the extent to which subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism influence the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular diseases in older people. SETTING AND DESIGN The Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) is an prospective cohort study. PATIENTS Patients included men and women aged 70-82 yr (n=5316) with known cardiovascular risk factors or previous cardiovascular disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence rate of heart failure hospitalization, atrial fibrillation, and cardiovascular events and mortality according to baseline thyroid status were evaluated. Euthyroid participants (TSH=0.45-4.5 mIU/liter) were compared with those with subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH<0.45 mIU/liter) and those with subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH≥4.5 mIU/liter, both with normal free T4). RESULTS Subclinical hyperthyroidism was present in 71 participants and subclinical hypothyroidism in 199 participants. Over 3.2 yr follow-up, the rate of heart failure was higher for subclinical hyperthyroidism compared with euthyroidism [age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=2.93, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.37-6.24, P=0.005; multivariate-adjusted HR=3.27, 95% CI=1.52-7.02, P=0.002). Subclinical hypothyroidism (only at threshold>10 mIU/liter) was associated with heart failure (age- and sex-adjusted HR=3.01, 95% CI=1.12-8.11, P=0.029; multivariate HR=2.28, 95% CI=0.84-6.23). There were no strong evidence of an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cardiovascular events or mortality, except in those with TSH below 0.1 or over 10 mIU/liter and not taking pravastatin. CONCLUSION Older people at high cardiovascular risk with low or very high TSH along with normal free T4 appear at increased risk of incident heart failure.

Associations of Proinflammatory Cytokines With the Risk of Recurrent Stroke

Background and Purpose— There are few reports on proinflammatory cytokines and risk of primary or recurrent stroke. We studied the association of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-18, and tumor necrosis factor-&agr; (TNF-&agr;) with recurrent stroke in a nested case-control study derived from the Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study (PROGRESS). Methods— We performed a nested case-control study of 591 strokes (472 ischemic, 83 hemorrhagic, 36 unknown subtype) occurring during a randomized, placebo-controlled multicenter trial of perindopril-based therapy in 6105 patients with a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. Controls were matched for age, treatment group, sex, region, and most recent qualifying event at entry to the parent trial. Results— IL-6 and TNF-&agr;, but not IL-18, were associated with risk of recurrent ischemic stroke independently of conventional risk markers. Adjusted odds ratios comparing the highest to lowest third of their distributions were 1.33 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.78) for IL-6 and 1.46 (1.02 to 2.10) for TNF-&agr;. No inflammatory marker was associated with hemorrhagic stroke risk. In multivariable models, IL-6 and TNF-&agr; fully explained observed associations of C-reactive protein and fibrinogen with risk of ischemic stroke, but TNF-&agr; retained borderline significance after full adjustment. Conclusions— Inflammatory markers associated with the acute-phase response (IL-6, TNF-&agr;, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen, but not IL-18) are associated with risk of recurrent stroke. These markers are dependent on each other in multivariable models, and once all were included, only TNF-&agr; retained a borderline association. Markers of generalized inflammation of the acute-phase response are associated with recurrent stroke, rather than IL-6, C-reactive protein, or fibrinogen in particular.

Obesity is associated with fatal coronary heart disease independently of traditional risk factors and deprivation

Background The effect of body mass index (BMI) on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk is attenuated when mediators of this risk (such as diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia) are accounted for. However, there is now evidence of a differential effect of risk factors on fatal and non-fatal CHD events, with markers of inflammation more strongly associated with fatal than non-fatal events. Objective To describe the association with BMI separately for both fatal and non-fatal CHD risk after accounting for classical risk factors and to assess any independent effects of obesity on CHD risk. Methods and results In the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study BMI in 6082 men (mean age 55 years) with hypercholesterolaemia, but no history of diabetes or CVD, was related to the risk of fatal and non-fatal CHD events. After excluding participants with any event in the first 2 years, 1027 non-fatal and 214 fatal CHD events occurred during 14.7 years of follow-up. A minimally adjusted model (age, sex, statin treatment) and a maximally adjusted model (including known CVD risk factors and deprivation) were compared, with BMI 25–27.4 kg/m2 as referent. The risk of non-fatal events was similar across all BMI categories in both models. The risk of fatal CHD events was increased in men with BMI 30.0–39.9 kg/m2 in both the minimally adjusted model (HR=1.75 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.74)) and the maximally adjusted model (HR=1.60 (95% CI 1.02 to 2.53)). Conclusions These hypothesis generating data suggest that obesity is associated with fatal, but not non-fatal, CHD after accounting for known cardiovascular risk factors and deprivation. Clinical trial registration WOSCOPS was carried out and completed before the requirement for clinical trial registration.

Are Markers of Inflammation More Strongly Associated with Risk for Fatal Than for Nonfatal Vascular Events

In a secondary analysis of a randomized trial comparing pravastatin versus placebo for the prevention of coronary and cerebral events in an elderly at-risk population, Naveed Sattar and colleagues find that inflammatory markers may be more strongly associated with risk of fatal vascular events than nonfatal vascular events.

Lipid-Modifying Therapies and Risk of Pancreatitis: A Meta-analysis

CONTEXT Statin therapy has been associated with pancreatitis in observational studies. Although lipid guidelines recommend fibrate therapy to reduce pancreatitis risk in persons with hypertriglyceridemia, fibrates may lead to the development of gallstones, a risk factor for pancreatitis. OBJECTIVE To investigate associations between statin or fibrate therapy and incident pancreatitis in large randomized trials. DATA SOURCES Relevant trials were identified in literature searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science (January 1, 1994, for statin trials and January 1, 1972, for fibrate trials, through June 9, 2012). Published pancreatitis data were tabulated where available (6 trials). Unpublished data were obtained from investigators (22 trials). STUDY SELECTION We included randomized controlled cardiovascular end-point trials investigating effects of statin therapy or fibrate therapy. Studies with more than 1000 participants followed up for more than 1 year were included. DATA EXTRACTION Trial-specific data described numbers of participants developing pancreatitis and change in triglyceride levels at 1 year. Trial-specific risk ratios (RRs) were calculated and combined using random-effects model meta-analysis. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. RESULTS In 16 placebo- and standard care-controlled statin trials with 113,800 participants conducted over a weighted mean follow-up of 4.1 (SD, 1.5) years, 309 participants developed pancreatitis (134 assigned to statin, 175 assigned to control) (RR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.62-0.97; P = .03; I2 = 0%]). In 5 dose-comparison statin trials with 39,614 participants conducted over 4.8 (SD, 1.7) years, 156 participants developed pancreatitis (70 assigned to intensive dose, 86 assigned to moderate dose) (RR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.59-1.12; P = .21; I2 = 0%]). Combined results for all 21 statin trials provided RR 0.79 (95% CI, 0.65-0.95; P = .01; I2 = 0%). In 7 fibrate trials with 40,162 participants conducted over 5.3 (SD, 0.5) years, 144 participants developed pancreatitis (84 assigned to fibrate therapy, 60 assigned to placebo) (RR, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.00-1.95; P = .053; I2 = 0%]). CONCLUSION In a pooled analysis of randomized trial data, use of statin therapy was associated with a lower risk of pancreatitis in patients with normal or mildly elevated triglyceride levels.

Insulin Resistance and Truncal Obesity as Important Determinants of the Greater Incidence of Diabetes in Indian Asians and African Caribbeans Compared With Europeans: The Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) cohort

OBJECTIVE To determine the extent of, and reasons for, ethnic differences in type 2 diabetes incidence in the U.K. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Population-based triethnic cohort. Participants were without diabetes, aged 40–69 at baseline (1989–1991), and followed-up for 20 years. Baseline measurements included fasting and postglucose bloods, anthropometry, and lifestyle questionnaire. Incident diabetes was identified from medical records and participant recall. Ethnic differences in diabetes incidence were examined using competing risks regression. RESULTS Incident diabetes was identified in 196 of 1,354 (14%) Europeans, 282 of 839 (34%) Indian Asians, and 100 of 335 (30%) African Caribbeans. All Indian Asians and African Caribbeans were first-generation migrants. Compared with Europeans, age-adjusted subhazard ratios (SHRs [95% CI]) for men and women, respectively, were 2.88 (95%, 2.36–3.53; P < 0.001) and 1.91 (1.18–3.10; P = 0.008) in Indian Asians, and 2.23 (1.64–3.03; P < 0.001) and 2.51 (1.63–3.87; P < 0.001) in African Caribbeans. Differences in baseline insulin resistance and truncal obesity largely attenuated the ethnic minority excess in women (adjusted SHRs: Indian Asians 0.77 [0.49–1.42]; P = 0.3; African Caribbeans 1.48 [0.89–2.45]; P = 0.13), but not in men (adjusted SHRs: Indian Asians 1.98 [1.52–2.58]; P < 0.001 and African Caribbeans, 2.05 [1.46–2.89; P < 0.001]). CONCLUSIONS Insulin resistance and truncal obesity account for the twofold excess incidence of diabetes in Indian Asian and African Caribbean women, but not men. Explanations for the excess diabetes risk in ethnic minority men remains unclear. Further study requires more precise measures of conventional risk factors and identification of novel risk factors.

Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cells Play a Key Role in Promoting Atherosclerosis in Apolipoprotein E–Deficient Mice

Objective—Clinical studies have identified that reduced numbers of circulating plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) act as a predictor of cardiovascular events in coronary artery disease and that pDCs are detectable in the shoulder region of human atherosclerotic plaques, where rupture is most likely to occur. Results from animal models are controversial, with pDCs seen to inhibit or promote lesion development depending on the experimental settings. Here, we investigated the role of pDCs in atherosclerosis in apolipoprotein E−deficient mice. Methods and Results—We demonstrated that the aorta and spleen of both apolipoprotein E−deficient and C57BL/6 mice displayed similar numbers of pDCs, with similar activation status. In contrast, assessment of antigen uptake/presentation using the E&agr;/Y-Ae system revealed that aortic pDCs in apolipoprotein E−deficient- mice were capable of presenting in vivo systemically administered antigen. Continuous treatment of apolipoprotein E−deficient mice with anti−mouse plasmacytoid dendritic cell antigen 1 (mPDCA-1) antibody caused specific depletion of pDCs in the aorta and spleen and significantly reduced atherosclerosis formation in the aortic sinus (by 46%; P<0.001). Depletion of pDCs also reduced macrophages (by 34%; P<0.05) and increased collagen content (by 41%; P<0.05) in aortic plaques, implying a more stable plaque phenotype. Additionally, pDC depletion reduced splenic T-cell activation and inhibited interleukin-12, chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 1, monokine induced by interferon-&ggr;, interferon &ggr;−induced protein 10, and vascular endothelium growth factor serum levels. Conclusion—These results identify a critical role for pDCs in atherosclerosis and suggest a potential role for pDC targeting in the control of the pathology.