Paula M. Luz

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Dengue vector control strategies in an urban setting: an economic modelling assessment

BACKGROUND An estimated 2·5 billion people are at risk of dengue. Incidence of dengue is especially high in resource-constrained countries, where control relies mainly on insecticides targeted at larval or adult mosquitoes. We did epidemiological and economic assessments of different vector control strategies. METHODS We developed a dynamic model of dengue transmission that assesses the evolution of insecticide resistance and immunity in the human population, thus allowing for long-term evolutionary and immunological effects of decreased dengue transmission. We measured the dengue health burden in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost. We did a cost-effectiveness analysis of 43 insecticide-based vector control strategies, including strategies targeted at adult and larval stages, at varying efficacies (high-efficacy [90% mortality], medium-efficacy [60% mortality], and low-efficacy [30% mortality]) and yearly application frequencies (one to six applications). To assess the effect of parameter uncertainty on the results, we did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and a threshold analysis. FINDINGS All interventions caused the emergence of insecticide resistance, which, with the loss of herd immunity, will increase the magnitude of future dengue epidemics. In our model, one or more applications of high-efficacy larval control reduced dengue burden for up to 2 years, whereas three or more applications of adult vector control reduced dengue burden for up to 4 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the strategies for two high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year was US

Changing Mortality Profile among HIV-Infected Patients in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Shifting from AIDS to Non-AIDS Related Conditions in the HAART Era

615 per DALY saved and for six high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year was

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle- and high-income countries

1267 per DALY saved. Sensitivity analysis showed that if the cost of adult control was more than 8·2 times the cost of larval control then all strategies based on adult control became dominated. INTERPRETATION Six high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year has a cost-effectiveness ratio that will probably meet WHOs standard for a cost-effective or very cost-effective intervention. Year-round larval control can be counterproductive, exacerbating epidemics in later years because of evolution of insecticide resistance and loss of herd immunity. We suggest the reassessment of vector control policies that are based on larval control only. FUNDING The Fulbright Programme, CAPES (Brazilian federal agency for post-graduate education), the Miriam Burnett trust, and the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation.

Dengue infection increases the locomotor activity of Aedes aegypti females

Introduction We describe temporal trends in the mortality rates and factors associated with AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality at the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute (IPEC), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ). Methods Adult patients enrolling from 1986 through 2009 with a minimum follow up of 60 days were included. Vital status was exhaustively checked using patients’ medical charts, through active contact with individuals and family members and by linkage with the Rio de Janeiro Mortality database using a previously validated algorithm. The CoDe protocol was used to establish the cause of death. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used for multivariate modeling. Results A total of 3530 individuals met the inclusion criteria, out of which 868 (24.6%) deceased; median follow up per patient was 3.9 years (interquartile range 1.7–9.2 years). The dramatic decrease in the overall mortality rates was driven by AIDS-related causes that decreased from 9.19 deaths/100PYs n 1986–1991 to 1.35/100PYs in 2007–2009. Non-AIDS related mortality rates remained stable overtime, at around 1 death/100PYs. Immunodeficiency significantly increased the hazard of both AIDS-related and non-AIDS-related causes of death, while HAART use was strongly associated with a lower hazard of death from either cause. Conclusions Our results confirm the remarkable decrease in AIDS-related mortality as the HIV epidemic evolved and alerts to the conditions not traditionally related to HIV/AIDS which are now becoming more frequent, needing careful monitoring.

Sepsis is a major determinant of outcome in critically ill HIV/AIDS patients

Objective:To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. Methods:Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. Results:In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/&mgr;L between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/&mgr;L (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/&mgr;L (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/&mgr;L (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/&mgr;L [95% confidence interval (CI): −56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/&mgr;L (−62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/&mgr;L (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/&mgr;L (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/&mgr;L) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/&mgr;L (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/&mgr;L) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. Conclusions:Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000–2009 but remained below 200 cells/&mgr;L in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/&mgr;L in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Early mortality and cause of deaths in patients using HAART in Brazil and the United States.

Background Aedes aegypti is the main vector of the virus causing Dengue fever, a disease that has increased dramatically in importance in recent decades, affecting many tropical and sub-tropical areas of the globe. It is known that viruses and other parasites can potentially alter vector behavior. We investigated whether infection with Dengue virus modifies the behavior of Aedes aegypti females with respect to their activity level. Methods/Principal Findings We carried out intrathoracic Dengue 2 virus (DENV-2) infections in Aedes aegypti females and recorded their locomotor activity behavior. We observed an increase of up to ∼50% in the activity of infected mosquitoes compared to the uninfected controls. Conclusions Dengue infection alters mosquito locomotor activity behavior. We speculate that the higher levels of activity observed in infected Aedes aegypti females might involve the circadian clock. Further studies are needed to assess whether this behavioral change could have implications for the dynamics of Dengue virus transmission.

Disability adjusted life years lost to dengue in Brazil

IntroductionNew challenges have arisen for the management of critically ill HIV/AIDS patients. Severe sepsis has emerged as a common cause of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for those living with HIV/AIDS. Contrastingly, HIV/AIDS patients have been systematically excluded from sepsis studies, limiting the understanding of the impact of sepsis in this population. We prospectively followed up critically ill HIV/AIDS patients to evaluate the main risk factors for hospital mortality and the impact of severe sepsis on the short- and long-term survival.MethodsAll consecutive HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU of an infectious diseases research center, from June 2006 to May 2008, were included. Severity of illness, time since AIDS diagnosis, CD4 cell count, antiretroviral treatment, incidence of severe sepsis, and organ dysfunctions were registered. The 28-day, hospital, and 6-month outcomes were obtained for all patients. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis measured the effect of potential factors on 28-day and 6-month mortality.ResultsDuring the 2-year study period, 88 HIV/AIDS critically ill patients were admitted to the ICU. Seventy percent of patients had opportunist infections, median CD4 count was 75 cells/mm3, and 45% were receiving antiretroviral therapy. Location on a ward before ICU admission, cardiovascular and respiratory dysfunctions on the first day after admission, and the presence of severe sepsis/septic shock were associated with reduced 28-day and 6-month survival on a univariate analysis. After a multivariate analysis, severe sepsis determined the highest hazard ratio (HR) for 28-day (adjusted HR, 3.13; 95% CI, 1.21-8.07) and 6-month (adjusted HR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.42-7.86) mortality. Severe sepsis occurred in 44 (50%) patients, mainly because of lower respiratory tract infections. The survival of septic and nonseptic patients was significantly different at 28-day and 6-month follow-up times (log-rank and Peto test, P < 0.001).ConclusionsSevere sepsis has emerged as a major cause of admission and mortality for hospitalized HIV/AIDS patients, significantly affecting short- and longer-term survival of critically ill HIV/AIDS patients.

Factors associated with increased prevalence of human papillomavirus infection in a cohort of HIV-infected Brazilian women

Objective:To compare the early mortality pattern and causes of death among patients starting HAART in Brazil and the United States. Methods:We analyzed the combined data from two clinical cohorts followed at the Johns Hopkins AIDS Service in Baltimore, United States, and the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute AIDS Clinic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Participants included those who entered either cohort between 1999 and 2007 and were antiretroviral naive. Follow-up was at 1 year since HAART initiation. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess the role of the city on the risk of death. Results:A total of 859 and 915 participants from Baltimore and Rio de Janeiro, respectively, were included. In Rio de Janeiro, 64.7% of deaths occurred within 90 days of HAART initiation; in Baltimore, 48.9% occurred between 180 and 365 days. AIDS-defining illness (61.8%) and non-AIDS-defining illness (55.6%) predominated as causes of death in Rio de Janeiro and Baltimore, respectively. Risk of death was similar in both cities (hazard ratio 1.04; P value = 0.95) after adjusting for CD4+ T cell count, age, sex, HIV risk group, prior AIDS-defining illness, and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia and Mycobacterium avium prophylaxis. Individuals with CD4+ T cell count less than or equal to 50 cells/μl (hazard ratio 4.36; P = 0.001) or older (hazard ratio, 1.03; P = 0.03) were more likely to die. Conclusion:Although late HIV diagnosis is a problem both in developed and developing countries, differences in the timing and causes of deaths clearly indicate that, besides interventions for early HIV diagnosis, different strategies to curb early mortality need to be tailored in each country.

Análise da tendência da mortalidade por acidente vascular cerebral no Brasil no século XXI

Objectives  To assess the dengue burden in Brazil, and to compare it over three spatial scales: in the city of Rio de Janeiro, the state of Rio de Janeiro, and in Brazil overall.