Paulina Jaramillo

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Marcellus shale gas

This study estimates the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of Marcellus shale natural gas and compares its emissions with national average US natural gas emissions produced in the year 2008, prior to any significant Marcellus shale development. We estimate that the development and completion of a typical Marcellus shale well results in roughly 5500 t of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions or about 1.8 g CO2e/MJ of gas produced, assuming conservative estimates of the production lifetime of a typical well. This represents an 11% increase in GHG emissions relative to average domestic gas (excluding combustion) and a 3% increase relative to the life cycle emissions when combustion is included. The life cycle GHG emissions of Marcellus shale natural gas are estimated to be 63‐75 g CO2e/MJ of gas produced with an average of 68 g CO2e/MJ of gas produced. Marcellus shale natural gas GHG emissions are comparable to those of imported liquefied natural gas. Natural gas from the Marcellus shale has generally lower life cycle GHG emissions than coal for production of electricity in the absence of any effective carbon capture and storage processes, by 20‐50% depending upon plant efficiencies and natural gas emissions variability. There is significant uncertainty in our Marcellus shale GHG emission estimates due to eventual production volumes and variability in flaring, construction and transportation.

Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits.

We assess the economic value of life-cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles in the US. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO2 emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. Although large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life-cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent.

Life Cycle Assessment and Grid Electricity: What Do We Know and What Can We Know?

The generation and distribution of electricity comprises nearly 40% of U.S. CO(2), emissions, as well as large shares of SO(2), NO(x), small particulates, and other toxins. Thus, correctly accounting for these electricity-related environmental releases is of great importance in life cycle assessment of products and processes. Unfortunately, there is no agreed-upon protocol for accounting for the environmental emissions associated with electricity, as well as significant uncertainty in the estimates. Here, we explore the limits of current knowledge about grid electricity in LCA and carbon footprinting for the U.S. electrical grid, and show that differences in standards, protocols, and reporting organizations can lead to important differences in estimates of CO(2) SO(2), and NO(x) emissions factors. We find a considerable divergence in published values for grid emissions factor in the U.S. We discuss the implications of this divergence and list recommendations for a standardized approach to accounting for air pollution emissions in life cycle assessment and policy analyses in a world with incomplete and uncertain information.

Uncertainty in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from United States Natural Gas End-Uses and its Effects on Policy

Increasing concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States have spurred interest in alternate low carbon fuel sources, such as natural gas. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate potential emissions reductions through the use of such fuels. Some recent policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S., without, however, acknowledging and addressing the uncertainty and variability prevalent in LCA. Natural gas is a particularly interesting fuel since it can be used to meet various energy demands, for example, as a transportation fuel or in power generation. Estimating the magnitudes and likelihoods of achieving emissions reductions from competing end-uses of natural gas using LCA offers one way to examine optimal strategies of natural gas resource allocation, given that its availability is likely to be limited in the future. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions of natural gas (domestic and imported) consumed in the U.S. was estimated using probabilistic modeling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain sample distributions representing life cycle GHG emissions from the use of 1 MJ of domestic natural gas and imported LNG. Life cycle GHG emissions per energy unit of average natural gas consumed in the U.S were found to range between -8 and 9% of the mean value of 66 g CO(2)e/MJ. The probabilities of achieving emissions reductions by using natural gas for transportation and power generation, as a substitute for incumbent fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and coal were estimated. The use of natural gas for power generation instead of coal was found to have the highest and most likely emissions reductions (almost a 100% probability of achieving reductions of 60 g CO(2)e/MJ of natural gas used), while there is a 10-35% probability of the emissions from natural gas being higher than the incumbent if it were used as a transportation fuel. This likelihood of an increase in GHG emissions is indicative of the potential failure of a climate policy targeting reductions in GHG emissions.

Life cycle inventory of CO2 in an enhanced oil recovery system.

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) has been identified as a method of sequestering CO(2) recovered from power plants. In CO(2)-flood EOR, CO(2) is injected into an oil reservoir to reduce oil viscosity, reduce interfacial tension, and cause oil swelling which improves oil recovery. Previous studies suggest that substantial amounts of CO(2) from power plants could be sequestered in EOR projects, thus reducing the amount of CO(2) emitted into the atmosphere. This claim, however, ignores the fact that oil, a carbon rich fuel, is produced and 93% of the carbon in petroleum is refined into combustible products ultimately emitted into the atmosphere. In this study we analyze the net life cycle CO(2)emissions in an EOR system. This study assesses the overall life cycle emissions associated with sequestration via CO(2)-flood EOR under a number of different scenarios and explores the impact of various methods for allocating CO(2) system emissions and the benefits of sequestration.

Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060–15065] argue that it is feasible to provide “low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055”, with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. Significance Previous analyses have found that the most feasible route to a low-carbon energy future is one that adopts a diverse portfolio of technologies. In contrast, Jacobson et al. (2015) consider whether the future primary energy sources for the United States could be narrowed to almost exclusively wind, solar, and hydroelectric power and suggest that this can be done at “low-cost” in a way that supplies all power with a probability of loss of load “that exceeds electric-utility-industry standards for reliability”. We find that their analysis involves errors, inappropriate methods, and implausible assumptions. Their study does not provide credible evidence for rejecting the conclusions of previous analyses that point to the benefits of considering a broad portfolio of energy system options. A policy prescription that overpromises on the benefits of relying on a narrower portfolio of technologies options could be counterproductive, seriously impeding the move to a cost effective decarbonized energy system.

Life cycle comparison of traditional retail and e-commerce logistics for electronic products: A case study of buy.com

This analysis compares e-commerce versus traditional retail systems energy use and greenhouse gas emissions through a case study of a product chosen to represent the retail process. We conclude that e-commerce has lower energy use and GHG emissions for our case study.

The effect of long-distance interconnection on wind power variability

We use time- and frequency-domain techniques to quantify the extent to which long-distance interconnection of wind plants in the United States would reduce the variability of wind power output. Previous work has shown that interconnection of just a few wind plants across moderate distances could greatly reduce the ratio of fast- to slow-ramping generators in the balancing portfolio. We find that interconnection of aggregate regional wind plants would not reduce this ratio further but would reduce variability at all frequencies examined. Further, interconnection of just a few wind plants reduces the average hourly change in power output, but interconnection across regions provides little further reduction. Interconnection also reduces the magnitude of low-probability step changes and doubles firm power output (capacity available at least 92% of the time) compared with a single region. First-order analysis indicates that balancing wind and providing firm power with local natural gas turbines would be more cost-effective than with transmission interconnection. For net load, increased wind capacity would require more balancing resources but in the same proportions by frequency as currently, justifying the practice of treating wind as negative load.

Comparison of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gases from Natural Gas Pathways for Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles

The low-cost and abundant supply of shale gas in the United States has increased the interest in using natural gas for transportation. We compare the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from different natural gas pathways for medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs). For Class 8 tractor-trailers and refuse trucks, none of the natural gas pathways provide emissions reductions per unit of freight-distance moved compared to diesel trucks. When compared to the petroleum-based fuels currently used in these vehicles, CNG and centrally produced LNG increase emissions by 0-3% and 2-13%, respectively, for Class 8 trucks. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) powered with natural gas-produced electricity are the only fuel-technology combination that achieves emission reductions for Class 8 transit buses (31% reduction compared to the petroleum-fueled vehicles). For non-Class 8 trucks (pick-up trucks, parcel delivery trucks, and box trucks), BEVs reduce emissions significantly (31-40%) compared to their diesel or gasoline counterparts. CNG and propane achieve relatively smaller emissions reductions (0-6% and 19%, respectively, compared to the petroleum-based fuels), while other natural gas pathways increase emissions for non-Class 8 MHDVs. While using natural gas to fuel electric vehicles could achieve large emission reductions for medium-duty trucks, the results suggest there are no great opportunities to achieve large emission reductions for Class 8 trucks through natural gas pathways with current technologies. There are strategies to reduce the carbon footprint of using natural gas for MHDVs, ranging from increasing vehicle fuel efficiency, reducing life cycle methane leakage rate, to achieving the same payloads and cargo volumes as conventional diesel trucks.

Production cost and air emissions impacts of coal cycling in power systems with large-scale wind penetration

Wind power introduces variability into electric power systems. Due to the physical characteristics of wind, most of this variability occurs at inter-hour time-scales and coal units are therefore technically capable of balancing wind. Operators of coal-fired units have raised concerns that additional cycling will be prohibitively costly. Using PJM bid-data, we observe that coal operators are likely systematically under-bidding their startup costs. We then consider the effects of a 20% wind penetration scenario in the coal-heavy PJM West area, both when coal units bid business as usual startup costs, and when they bid costs accounting for the elevated wear and tear that occurs during cycling. We conclude that while 20% wind leads to increased coal cycling and reduced coal capacity factors under business as usual startup costs, including full startup costs shifts the burden of balancing wind onto more flexible units. This shift has benefits for CO2, NOX, and SO2 emissions as well as for the profitability of coal plants, as calculated by our dispatch model.