Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

Adding Value to Bank Branch Performance Evaluation Using Cognitive Maps and MCDA: A Case Study

Bank branch performance evaluation is a difficult endeavour. Some of the main reasons for this difficulty are the complexity inherent in the variety of aspects considered in the evaluation, and the multiple and conflicting interests of the different stakeholders involved. In this paper, we show how cognitive mapping and measuring attractiveness by a categorical-based evaluation technique can be used to support the evaluation of bank branches through the development of multidimensional performance evaluation systems, and to deal explicitly with the trade-offs between the different dimensions of performance and interests of different stakeholders. A case study is discussed where these techniques are used in a constructive way, making the learning activity easier and introducing transparency in the decision-making process. The strengths and weaknesses of the integrated use of these two operational research techniques in this context are also discussed.

Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the performance of several seasonal unit root tests for monthly time series. The tests are those of Dickey, Hasza and Fuller (DHF), Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY), and Osborn, Chui, Smith and Birchenhall (OCSB). The unit root test of Dickey and Fuller (DF) is also considered. The results indicate that users have to be particularly cautious when applying the monthly version of the HEGY test. In general, the DHF and OCSB tests are preferable in terms of size and power, but these procedures may impose invalid restrictions. An empirical illustration is undertaken for UK two-digit industrial production indicators.

A Multiple Criteria Framework to Evaluate Bank Branch Potential Attractiveness

Remarkable progress has occurred over the years in the performance evaluation of bank branches. Even though financial measures are usually considered the most important in assessing branch viability, we posit that insufficient attention has been given to other factors that affect the branches’ potential profitability and attractiveness, such as: location features, trade area characteristics and facilities management. Based on the integrated use of cognitive maps and multiple criteria decision analysis, we propose a framework that adds value to the way that potential attractiveness criteria to assess bank branches are selected and to the way that the trade-offs among those criteria are obtained. This framework is the result of a process involving several directors from the five largest banks operating in Portugal, and follows a constructivist approach. Our findings suggest that the use of cognitive maps systematically identifies previously omitted criteria that may assess potential attractiveness. The use of multiple criteria techniques clarify and add transparency to the way trade-offs are dealt with. Advantages and disadvantages of the proposed framework are also discussed.

Evaluating retail banking service quality and convenience with MCDA techniques: a case study at the bank branch level

The intangibility of banking services makes the evaluation of service quality and customer convenience difficult to measure. This paper aims to construct an integrated evaluation system for retail banking service quality and convenience at the bank branch level by combining cognitive mapping with measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique. We strive to introduce transparency in the decision making process and add to the performance literature in retail banking. Strengths, weaknesses and practical applications of our multiple criteria evaluation system are also discussed.

Dating and synchronizing tourism growth cycles.

The authors use the non-parametric method proposed by Harding and Pagan (2003) to date tourism growth cycles. This study is among the first to use robust, transparent and replicable dating rules in the context of economic tourism activity cycles. On the basis of a cycle indicator function, the authors are able to establish a greater degree of cycle synchronization of tourism demand than that observed at the economic cycle level, and, by means of a recursive correlation coefficient, they conclude that this degree of cycle synchronization has increased over the years. To analyse the presence of a time lag between turning points of economic cycles and tourism demand, they suggest a lag concordance index. Observing cycles and producing dating indicator functions are important in examining potential asymmetric behaviour associated with tourism economic phases and are useful for forecasting purposes.

Threshold Cointegration and the PPP Hypothesis

Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) models are a non-linear variant of conventional linear Autoregressive (AR) models. One advantage of SETAR models over conventional AR models lies in its flexible nature in dealing with possible asymmetric behaviour of economic variables. The concept of threshold cointegration implies that the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) at a particular interval is inactive as a result of adjustment costs, and active when deviations from equilibrium exceed certain thresholds. For instance, the presence of adjustment costs can, in many circumstances, justify the fact that economic agents intervene to recalibrate back to a tolerable limit, as in the case when the benefits of adjustment are superior to its costs. We introduce an approach that accounts for potential asymmetry and we investigate the presence of the relative version of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for 14 countries. Based on a threshold cointegration adaptation of the unit root test procedure suggested by Caner & Hansen (2001), we find evidence of an asymmetric adjustment for the relative version of PPP for eight pairs of countries.

The Flexible Fourier Form and Local Generalised Least Squares De‐Trended Unit Root Tests

In two recent papers Enders and Lee (2009) and Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) provide Lagrange multiplier and ordinary least squares de-trended unit root tests, and stationarity tests, respectively, which incorporate a Fourier approximation element in the deterministic component. Such an approach can prove useful in providing robustness against a variety of breaks in the deterministic trend function of unknown form and number. In this article, we generalize the unit root testing procedure based on local generalized least squares (GLS) de-trending proposed by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) to allow for a Fourier approximation to the unknown deterministic component in the same way. We show that the resulting unit root tests possess good finite sample size and power properties and the test statistics have stable non-standard distributions, despite the curious result that their limiting null distributions exhibit asymptotic rank deficiency.

What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze possible causal relationships between exports, inward foreign investment and economic growth in Portugal and identify their direction. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses a three-stage procedure based on unit root, cointegration and causality tests applied to annual data from 1977 to 2004. Findings - The paper reveals that exports and FDI foster growth in the long-run while in the short-run there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth and a univariate causal relationship running from FDI to exports. FDI is viewed as a major determinant of economic growth, both directly and indirectly, via exports for both long and short-run cases. Practical implications - The results provide important corollaries in terms of policy implications and their relevance is far from being parochial. Some lessons in terms of domestic policies can be drawn by many countries that are now becoming EU members with economic structures and problems similar to those presented by the Portuguese economy in the 1980s. Originality/value - This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the Portuguese economy during the 1977-2004 period, over which many efforts were developed in order to increase the external competition of the economy, in particular in the context of community structural frameworks. In order to reinforce the inflows of FDI, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers to FDI and the reforms of the labour market which started in the early 2000s.

Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates

A new approach to detect persistence change in fractionally integrated models based on recursive forward and backward estimation of regression-based Lagrange Multiplier tests is proposed. This procedure generalizes approaches for conventional integrated processes to the fractional integration context. Asymptotic results are derived and the performance of the new tests evaluated in a Monte Carlo exercise. In particular, analytical and simulation results are provided for cases where the order of fractional integration is both known and unknown and needs to be estimated. The finite sample size and power performance of the statistics are encouraging and compare favorably to other recently proposed tests in the literature. The test statistics introduced are also applied to several world inflation rates and evidence of persistence change is found in most series.

ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTS: A UNIFYING APPROACH

ABSTRACT This paper adopts a unified approach to the derivation of the asymptotic distributions of various seasonal unit root tests. The procedures considered are those of Dickey et al. [DHF], Kunst, Hylleberg et al. [HEGY], Osborn et al. [OCSB], Ghysels et al. [GHL] and Franses. This unified approach shows that the asymptotic distributions of all these test statistics are functions of the same vector of Brownian motions. The Kunst test and the overall HEGY F-test are, indeed, equivalent both asymptotically and in finite samples, while the Franses and GHL tests are shown to have equivalent parameterizations. The OCSB and DHF test regressions are viewed as restricted forms of the Kunst-HEGY regressions, and these restrictions may have non-trivial asymptotic implications.