Paulo R.A. Campos

Evolution of clonal populations approaching a fitness peak

Populations facing novel environments are expected to evolve through the accumulation of adaptive substitutions. The dynamics of adaptation depend on the fitness landscape and possibly on the genetic background on which new mutations arise. Here, we model the dynamics of adaptive evolution at the phenotypic and genotypic levels, focusing on a Fisherian landscape characterized by a single peak. We find that Fishers geometrical model of adaptation, extended to allow for small random environmental variations, is able to explain several features made recently in experimentally evolved populations. Consistent with data on populations evolving under controlled conditions, the model predicts that mean population fitness increases rapidly when populations face novel environments and then achieves a dynamic plateau, the rate of molecular evolution is remarkably constant over long periods of evolution, mutators are expected to invade and patterns of epistasis vary along the adaptive walk. Negative epistasis is expected in the initial steps of adaptation but not at later steps, a prediction that remains to be tested. Furthermore, populations are expected to exhibit high levels of phenotypic diversity at all times during their evolution. This implies that populations are possibly able to adapt rapidly to novel abiotic environments.

Effect of Landscape Structure on Species Diversity.

The effects of habitat fragmentation and their implications for biodiversity is a central issue in conservation biology which still lacks an overall comprehension. There is not yet a clear consensus on how to quantify fragmentation even though it is quite common to couple the effects of habitat loss with habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Here we address the spatial patterns of species distribution in fragmented landscapes, assuming a neutral community model. To build up the fragmented landscapes, we employ the fractional Brownian motion approach, which in turn permits us to tune the amount of habitat loss and degree of clumping of the landscape independently. The coupling between the neutral community model, here simulated by means of the coalescent method, and fractal neutral landscape models enables us to address how the species–area relationship changes as the spatial patterns of a landscape is varied. The species–area relationship is one of the most fundamental laws in ecology, considered as a central tool in conservation biology, and is used to predict species loss following habitat disturbances. Our simulation results indicate that the level of clumping has a major role in shaping the species–area relationship. For instance, more compact landscapes are more sensitive to the effects of habitat loss and speciation rate. Besides, the level of clumping determines the existence and extension of the power-law regime which is expected to hold at intermediate scales. The distributions of species abundance are strongly influenced by the degree of fragmentation. We also show that the first and second commonest species have approximately self-similar spatial distributions across scales, with the fractal dimensions of the support of the first and second commonest species being very robust to changes in the spatial patterns of the landscape.

An ABC Method for Estimating the Rate and Distribution of Effects of Beneficial Mutations

Determining the distribution of adaptive mutations available to natural selection is a difficult task. These are rare events and most of them are lost by chance. Some theoretical works propose that the distribution of newly arising beneficial mutations should be close to exponential. Empirical data are scarce and do not always support an exponential distribution. Analysis of the dynamics of adaptation in asexual populations of microorganisms has revealed that these can be summarized by two effective parameters, the effective mutation rate, Ue, and the effective selection coefficient of a beneficial mutation, Se. Here, we show that these effective parameters will not always reflect the rate and mean effect of beneficial mutations, especially when the distribution of arising mutations has high variance, and the mutation rate is high. We propose a method to estimate the distribution of arising beneficial mutations, which is motivated by a common experimental setup. The method, which we call One Biallelic Marker Approximate Bayesian Computation, makes use of experimental data consisting of periodic measures of neutral marker frequencies and mean population fitness. Using simulations, we find that this method allows the discrimination of the shape of the distribution of arising mutations and that it provides reasonable estimates of their rates and mean effects in ranges of the parameter space that may be of biological relevance.

Competition and fixation of cohorts of adaptive mutations under Fisher geometrical model

One of the simplest models of adaptation to a new environment is Fisher’s Geometric Model (FGM), in which populations move on a multidimensional landscape defined by the traits under selection. The predictions of this model have been found to be consistent with current observations of patterns of fitness increase in experimentally evolved populations. Recent studies investigated the dynamics of allele frequency change along adaptation of microbes to simple laboratory conditions and unveiled a dramatic pattern of competition between cohorts of mutations, i.e., multiple mutations simultaneously segregating and ultimately reaching fixation. Here, using simulations, we study the dynamics of phenotypic and genetic change as asexual populations under clonal interference climb a Fisherian landscape, and ask about the conditions under which FGM can display the simultaneous increase and fixation of multiple mutations—mutation cohorts—along the adaptive walk. We find that FGM under clonal interference, and with varying levels of pleiotropy, can reproduce the experimentally observed competition between different cohorts of mutations, some of which have a high probability of fixation along the adaptive walk. Overall, our results show that the surprising dynamics of mutation cohorts recently observed during experimental adaptation of microbial populations can be expected under one of the oldest and simplest theoretical models of adaptation—FGM.

Error catastrophe in populations under similarity-essential recombination.

Organisms are often more likely to exchange genetic information with others that are similar to themselves. One of the most widely accepted mechanisms of RNA virus recombination requires substantial sequence similarity between the parental RNAs and is termed similarity-essential recombination. This mechanism may be considered analogous to assortative mating, an important form of non-random mating that can be found in animals and plants. Here we study the dynamics of haplotype frequencies in populations evolving under similarity-essential recombination. Haplotypes are represented by a genome of B biallelic loci and the Hamming distance between individuals is used as a criterion for recombination. We derive the evolution equations for the haplotype frequencies assuming that recombination does not occur if the genetic distance is larger than a critical value G and that mutation occurs at a rate μ per locus. Additionally, uniform crossover is considered. Although no fitness is directly associated to the haplotypes, we show that frequency-dependent selection emerges dynamically and governs the haplotype distribution. A critical mutation rate μc can be identified as the error threshold transition, beyond which this selective information cannot be stored. For μ<μc the distribution consists of a dominant sequence surrounded by a cloud of closely related sequences, characterizing a quasispecies. For μ>μc the distribution becomes uniform, with all haplotypes having the same frequency. In the case of extreme assortativeness, where individuals only recombine with others identical to themselves (G=0), the error threshold results μc=1/4, independently of the genome size. For weak assortativity (G=B-1)μc=2(-(B+1)) and for the case of no assortativity (G=B) μc=0. We compute the mutation threshold for 0<G<B and show that, for large B, it depends only on the ratio G/B. We discuss the consequences of these results for recombination in viruses and for speciation.

Complex transition to cooperative behavior in a structured population model.

Cooperation plays an important role in the evolution of species and human societies. The understanding of the emergence and persistence of cooperation in those systems is a fascinating and fundamental question. Many mechanisms were extensively studied and proposed as supporting cooperation. The current work addresses the role of migration for the maintenance of cooperation in structured populations. This problem is investigated in an evolutionary perspective through the prisoners dilemma game paradigm. It is found that migration and structure play an essential role in the evolution of the cooperative behavior. The possible outcomes of the model are extinction of the entire population, dominance of the cooperative strategy and coexistence between cooperators and defectors. The coexistence phase is obtained in the range of large migration rates. It is also verified the existence of a critical level of structuring beyond that cooperation is always likely. In resume, we conclude that the increase in the number of demes as well as in the migration rate favor the fixation of the cooperative behavior.

Competing metabolic strategies in a multilevel selection model

The evolutionary mechanisms of energy efficiency have been addressed. One important question is to understand how the optimized usage of energy can be selected in an evolutionary process, especially when the immediate advantage of gathering efficient individuals in an energetic context is not clear. We propose a model of two competing metabolic strategies differing in their resource usage, an efficient strain which converts resource into energy at high efficiency but displays a low rate of resource consumption, and an inefficient strain which consumes resource at a high rate but at low yield. We explore the dynamics in both well-mixed and structured populations. The selection for optimized energy usage is measured by the likelihood that an efficient strain can invade a population of inefficient strains. It is found that the parameter space at which the efficient strain can thrive in structured populations is always broader than observed in well-mixed populations.

A theoretical approach to the size‐complexity rule

The so‐called size‐complexity rule claims the existence of a positive correlation between organism size and number of cell types. In this spirit, here we address the relationship between organism size and number of potential tasks that can be performed. The modeling relies on the assumption that the states of the cells within the aggregates are such that the maximum fitness is realized, but also relies on the existence of tradeoffs among the distinct functions. For group sizes larger than the number of potential tasks, fitness maximization is attained when all cells in group specialize in a given task. Under this scenario, the number of potential tasks equals the number of cell types. We have found that the morphology and the topology of aggregates, as well as the developmental mode, strongly influence the dynamics of body formation. Particularly, it has been observed that more compact structures, such as sphere‐like structures, are more likely to follow the claim of the size‐complexity rule, whereas more fragile structures such as linear chains, which are more vulnerable to drastic changes due to division mechanisms, can, in a broad scenario, violate the size‐complexity rule.

A resource-based game theoretical approach for the paradox of the plankton

The maintenance of species diversity is a central focus in ecology. It is not rare to observe more species than the number of limiting resources, especially in plankton communities. However, such high species diversity is hard to achieve in theory under the competitive exclusion principles, known as the plankton paradox. Previous studies often focus on the coexistence of predefined species and ignore the fact that species can evolve. We model multi-resource competitions using evolutionary games, where the number of species fluctuates under extinction and the appearance of new species. The interspecific and intraspecific competitions are captured by a dynamical payoff matrix, which has a size of the number of species. The competition strength (payoff entries) is obtained from comparing the capability of species in consuming resources, which can change over time. This allows for the robust coexistence of a large number of species, providing a possible solution to the plankton paradox.