Paulo Reis Mourão

Elections, Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Illusion

This paper tests the joint hypotheses that policymakers engage in fiscal policy opportunism and that voters respond by rewarding that opportunism with higher vote margins. Furthermore, it investigates the impact of fiscal illusion on the previous two dimensions. Empirical results, obtained with a sample of 68 countries from 1960 to 2006, reveal that opportunistic measures of expenditures and revenues generate larger winning margins for the incumbent and that the opportunistic manipulation of fiscal policy instruments is larger when the current government is less likely to be reelected. Furthermore, fiscal illusion contributes to the entrenchment of incumbent policymakers in office and promotes opportunistic behaviour.

The indebtedness of Portuguese soccer teams : looking for determinants

Abstract This work tests determinants of the indebtedness of Portuguese soccer teams using the sample of teams playing in the Portuguese major league from the 1999–2000 season until the 2005–2006 season. This is a major issue related to both the medium-term solvency of the Portuguese professional soccer sector and the solvency of the European soccer market. Our results show that past debt obligations, the market area, the rank of each team and, particularly, the costs of wages exert a positive and significant effect on the debt ratio for each soccer team. These results support suggestions seeking to promote the sustainability of the soccer sector, namely, the imposition of wage caps, a new regulation limiting the increasing debt ratios and the redistribution of TV rights via a more egalitarian system.

Why does the microcredit borrowing rate differ across countries? A cross-country study

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the socio-economic variables that influence the number of micro-credit projects worldwide. The paper also intends to study the socio-economic variables that lead to a higher default rate. In order to do this study, the authors use a database from MIX and include some more variables. Design/methodology/approach - The paper intends to explore why the number of debtors/lenders is higher or lower depending on each country, and what variables influence this behavior. This will allow regions to be distinguished where there is more microcredit and on what basis and why, in some cases, it is found to have a higher incidence of default. Findings - The results showed that green cases (characterized by a lower probability of default) are increased when more collateral value is required and the case is not in Africa. Higher levels of population under the poverty line, higher levels of the Gini Index, and being an African country lead to higher levels of yellow cases. It was observed that the percentage of red cases (characterized by a higher probability of default) tends to rise if there is a smaller value of firms using banks to finance investments, if there is a reduced expression of small firms, and if there are smaller values of collateral needed for a loan. Originality/value - This is the first scientific paper on this field (heterogeneity of microcredit borrowing rates).

“Fiscal Illusion Causes Fiscal Delusion – Please Be Careful!”

Although fiscal illusion was first articulated by Puviani (1903), it is a current issue, and its consequences are rather serious, as shown in this paper. Fiscal illusion enlarges the public sector but it can, by itself, be a considerable threat to the trust between the State and its citizens, ultimately promoting serious instability in economic cycles and in democratic institutions.

The Irrelevance of Political Parties’ Differences for Public Finances - Evidence from Public Deficit and Debt in Portugal (1974 – 2012)

This paper attempts to empirically test whether inter-parties’ political differences impact public finances in Portugal differently. Focused on public debt and the government budget deficit, and using data collected since 1974 for several variables, this paper applies econometric modeling to show that inter-parties’ differences have had no significant impact on the performance of public finances in Portugal. We observed that the Portuguese public budget deficit and the Portuguese public debt are mainly influenced by the process of globalization, the profile of the Portuguese Welfare State, and the phases of the economic cycle. In this context, this paper aims to dispel some myths regarding the “value” of a policy process based on political intrigue, enmity, and confrontation around differentiated political parties’ merits in European democracies.

Does European regional competitiveness influence sports? An analysis of three sports.

The main objective of this work was to test European regional determinants of sports competitiveness. We studied competitiveness in volleyball, basketball and handball. We developed a theoretical model based on the model proposed by Bernard and Busse (2004) to analyse the effect of regional institutions and sport environments that can interfere with sports competitiveness. To test our model, we constructed an enlarged database for all European NUTS2 since 1995, which we analysed using panel data techniques (censored Tobit models). Our results reveal that the regions that are able to maintain player performance do so by persistent effort and external influences. These factors contribute more to regional competitiveness than a region’s central location or political prominence.

Discussing the posthosting evaluation of a mega sporting event: The perception of Warsaw Residents toward UEFA EURO 2012:

The aim of this paper is to identify Warsaw residents’ perceptions and attitudes toward the UEFA EURO 2012 tournament. The investigation focused on how residents of Warsaw perceived the impacts of the tournament one year after the event. A questionnaire survey was applied using a stratified sampling method to 480 residents of Warsaw. The results of the survey and ordered logit regressions show that although the residents did not perceive that the economic benefits of the tournament were spread uniformly, a large majority valued the tournament’s role in promoting Warsaw as a tourist destination and enhancing the international identity of the city. Whereas residents generally displayed positive attitudes toward EURO 2012 in terms of lifting their pride and bringing the community closer together, they also noted some negative impacts of the event. The opinions expressed about the tournament depended on the age, education, and income of the responders. A majority of the residents agreed that the positive impacts of EURO 2012 outweighed the negative.

Rhetoric on the economy: have European parties changed their economic messages?

ABSTRACT This study analyses the determinants of dispersion of economic issue mentions in European party manifestos. We examined three main economic domains (governmental control of the economy, free market capitalism and support for the welfare state) as consequences of globalization forces, economic conditions, partisanship and electoral turnout. Employing aggregate-level Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) data from legislative elections in 15 European countries from 1970 to 2010, we confirm that parties hold a common view of the salience of economic control of the state as a consequence of globalization pressure and economic growth levels. Partisanship of the cabinets (regardless of the political orientation) counteracted issue salience concentration in the welfare domain. Government size favoured dispersion in the free market realm. Our results do not indicate clear homogenization of parties’ economic messages in elections over the last 40 years.

How the Cake is Distributed: The Case of Portuguese Decentralized Grants

This paper will discuss how the distribution of decentralized grants for Portuguese municipalities affects the evolution of the total amounts given by the Portuguese government to Portuguese municipalities. After a review of the literature I discuss a model based on a Bergson–Samuelson function. I used official data (from Portuguese Budget Reports) since 1982 for studying the decentralized grants. I also regress on other Portuguese time series in order to control for the effect of inequality series. Applying cointegration techniques and testing the causality direction, I conclude that there is a statistical validation that, as the distribution becomes more unequal, the total amounts of the transferred grants decrease.

Portuguese public collections and the economic cycle: a seminal study

Purpose - What are the motivations behind the Portuguese contributions to a public campaign promoted by the National League Against the Cancer? The purpose of this paper is to answer the question, considering the cyclical behaviour of the economy. Design/methodology/approach - A panel-data approach was used. Findings - It was concluded that Portuguese contributions are significantly related to the local economic cycle. Thus, Portuguese give more if the local economy grows. However, it was verified that an increasing of the number of old people does promote less expressive donated values, which may be understood as deep implications of the decisions taken during a life-cycle pattern (give during the work, save later). Originality/value - This is the first Portuguese study located in the field of the