Paulo Santos Monteiro

Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy

Countries with strong trade linkages have more synchronized business cycles. However, the standard international business cycle framework cannot replicate this finding, uncovering the trade-comovement puzzle. Modeling trade using more sophisticated micro-level assumptions does not help resolve the puzzle. This happens because for a large class of trade models, under certain macro-level conditions, output comovement is determined by the same factor structure. We show that in such models comovement can be explained by three factors: (i) the correlation between each countrys TFP; (ii) the correlation between each countrys share of expenditure on domestic goods; and (iii) the correlation between each countrys TFP and the partners share of expenditure on domestic goods. An empirical investigation of the link between trade and each of the three factors shows that the trade-comovement relation is in large part explained by the second factor while in the theoretical model this factor reacts counterfactually to changes in trade costs.

Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities

The specification of an optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism requires selecting a policy regime, commonly commitment or discretion. In this paper we propose a new procedure for testing optimal monetary policy, relying on moment inequalities that nest commitment and discretion as two special cases. The approach is based on the derivation of bounds for inflation that are consistent with optimal policy under either policy regime. We derive testable implications that allow for specification tests and discrimination between the two alternative regimes. The proposed procedure is implemented to examine the conduct of monetary policy in the United States economy.

Labor Market Effects of Improved Access to Credit Among the Poor: Evidence from Cape Verde

In the context of a collective household choice model, we show that the effects of improved credit access on search intensity by the unemployed are heterogeneous across households and dependent on the within-household bargaining power of the unemployed. We find empirical support for the predictions of our model using a household survey conducted by the authors in Cape Verde. These findings have important implications for the optimal design of microfinance programs, in particular concerning the targeting of loans and the use of microfinance as an instrument to support improved labor market outcomes.

Family Labor Supply, Precautionary Behavior, Aggregate Saving and Employment

I study the impact of idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty on aggregate saving and employment in an economy populated by families consisting of two members. Families incur a fixed cost of participation when both members are employed. I argue that, because of market incompleteness and private information, the presence of this fixed cost can generate multiplicity of equilibrium. In particular there might be one equilibrium with high (female) employment and low savings and another one with low employment and high savings. The model suggests that aggregate saving and employment rates should be negatively correlated across countries. Finally, I present empirical evidence that supports both the partial and the general equilibrium predictions of the model.