Pavel Zahradníček

The Effects of Climate Change on Variability of the Growing Seasons in the Elbe River Lowland, Czech Republic

This research aimed to identify an approach for adaptation of agriculture to increased climate variability and projected changes, taking into account regional specificity of climate change. Changes in the timing of growing season (GS) parameters for both observation and models data were computed using daily mean temperatures for three thresholds that correspond to the physiological requirements of the vegetable types. This research included a new assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the GS of vegetables grown in the Elbe River lowland, one of the largest farmed vegetable regions in Central Europe. To accomplish this, a comprehensive analysis was conducted of the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the beginning of the growing season (BGS), the date of the end of the growing season (EGS), and the length of the growing season (GSL) for the period 1961–2011. In addition, an assessment was made of the potential changes in the dates of the BGS, EGS, and GSL for the Elbe River lowland, simulated using the regional climate models. Prospective areas for growing thermophilic vegetables in the study region were also determined.

Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis

Among the key problems associated with the study of climate variability and its evolution are identification of the factors responsible for observed changes and quantification of their effects. Here, correlation and regression analysis are employed to detect the imprints of selected natural forcings (solar and volcanic activity) and anthropogenic influences (amounts of greenhouse gases—GHGs—and atmospheric aerosols), as well as prominent climatic oscillations (Southern Oscillation—SO, North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation—AMO) in the Czech annual and monthly temperature and precipitation series for the 1866–2010 period. We show that the long-term evolution of Czech temperature change is dominated by the influence of an increasing concentration of anthropogenic GHGs (explaining most of the observed warming), combined with substantially lower, and generally statistically insignificant, contributions from the sulphate aerosols (mild cooling) and variations in solar activity (mild warming), but with no distinct imprint from major volcanic eruptions. A significant portion of the observed short-term temperature variability can be linked to the influence of NAO. The contributions from SO and AMO are substantially weaker in magnitude. Aside from NAO, no major influence from the explanatory variables was found in the precipitation series. Nonlinear forms of regression were used to test for nonlinear interactions between the predictors and temperature/precipitation; the nonlinearities disclosed were, however, very weak, or not detectable at all. In addition to the outcomes of the attribution analysis for the Czech series, results for European and global land temperatures are also shown and discussed.

Projected changes in winter climate in Beskids Mountains during 21st century

. Farda A., Štěpánek P., Zahradníček P., Skalák P, Meitner J. 2017: Projected changes in winter climate in Beskids Mountains during 21st century. – Beskydy, 10 (1, 2): 123–134 We have investigated the future changes of climate conditions during the winter season in the Beskids Mountains. During the 21st century mean winter temperature will increase by 2.0–6.3 °C and winter precipitation will increase by 12.5 – to 17.5 % depending on the scenario. Higher winter temperatures will be reflected in the reduced number of frost days, the number of which may drop by 40 % according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Whilst our study expects general increase in precipitation, higher temperatures will lead to an increased evapotranspiration and also change in the form of precipitation from solid (snow, rime) to liquid (rain, drizzling). Such trends could further propel the unfavorable changes in the water balance budget.

Pilot Actions in European Cities – Prague

This chapter describes results of pilot actions in Prague. Two different pilot areas were selected (Legerova street and Bubny-Holesovice quarter) with different modelling approach. Finally, the Green belt around Prague is studied as well. Different scenarios are tested and their results discussed. The matter of air quality is also analysed.