Pavle Valerjev

Confidence judgments in syllogistic reasoning: the role of consistency and response cardinality

ABSTRACT In two experiments, we examined the resolution of confidence judgments in syllogistic reasoning and their heuristic bases. Based on the assumptions of Koriats Self-Consistency Model of confidence, we expected the confidence judgments to be related to conclusion consensuality, reflecting the role of consistency as a heuristic cue to confidence. In Experiment 1, the participants evaluated 24 syllogisms with conclusions that varied with respect to validity and consensuality. In Experiment 2, the participants produced conclusions to 64 pairs of premises. The correlation between confidence and reasoning accuracy was low. In both experiments confidence was related to the consensuality of the responses. For consensually correct items, correlation between confidence and accuracy was positive; however, for consensually incorrect items it was negative. In Experiment 2, confidence was lower for syllogisms with higher response cardinality, or syllogisms that elicited a greater variety of conclusions.

The influence of conflict monitoring on meta-reasoning and response times in a base rate task

We examined the role of conflict monitoring processes in forming metacognitive judgements of confidence while performing base rate tasks. Recently proposed models of dual-process reasoning, as well as research, have shown that conflict detection might represent a link between Type 1 and Type 2 processing. Conflict detection has also been shown to affect metacognitive processes in reasoning tasks. By varying base rate probability and congruence, we generated base rate tasks of four distinct levels of congruence. The results of two experiments showed that participants were slower and less confident in conflict conditions regardless of their response. However, there were two distinct subsets of participants with different levels of sensitivity to conflict which resulted in different patterns of results when using low base rate ratios. In-depth analyses showed that the impact of base rate information in the formation of metacognitive judgements depended on congruence and response type. Base rate information was a more salient cue for metacognitive processes when responding according to base rates compared with responding according to belief. There is evidence that base rate information may serve as a direct cue for metacognition, independent of fluency.

The snow tire illusion: Different levels of perceptual assimilation across a single stimulus configuration

While observing a specific traffic sign in the field, we noticed an apparent distortion of size and shape of the circle that contained the sign. This novel illusion manifests as a distortion of the horizontal compared to the vertical dimension of the sign. The illusion seems to be underlined by similar mechanisms to those in the Delboeuf illusion. The aim of our study was to determine the existence and magnitude of the snow tire illusion. We conducted two experiments using the method of constant stimuli. The first experiment was conducted on the standard sign, while in the second, the stimuli were rotated 90° counterclockwise. Both experiments consisted of three conditions: the snow tire, the ellipse, and the simple circle (control) conditions. The data showed a robust illusion effect for both the standard and rotated sign compared to the control condition, with a large majority of participants experiencing the illusion. The snow tire illusion seems to be a combination of assimilation mechanisms of different magnitudes. The assimilation is larger for one dimension of the sign, thus producing the shape distortion. The illusion may be a manifestation of a thus far undocumented non-uniform effect of assimilation on perceived size and shape.