Pavlos Kassomenos

Synoptic and Mesoscale Weather Conditions During Air Pollution Episodes in Athens, Greece

Based on regular climatological and air quality data from the Greater Athens Area (GAA), the air pollution episodes observed in Athens during the period 1983–1990 were analysed and classified. The main characteristics of atmospheric conditions during days with high air pollution concentrations are summarized too. Model simulations show that the worst air pollution episodes in Athens occur during days with a critical balance between synoptic and mesoscale circulations and/or during days with warm advection in the lower troposphere.

Comparison of methodologies for tmy generation using 20 years data for Athens, Greece

Abstract The need of accurate Test Reference Years (TRYs) for simulations has been well recognised over the years. Various methods for deriving TRYs have been developed, but their final results can be significantly different. In this paper, the major methodologies reported in literature were applied to 20-year hourly measurements of weather data from Athens, covering the period 1977 to 1996. Seventeen TRYs were produced in total. The basis to select the “best” performing TRY includes meteorological criteria (inherent in the selection process used by each method) and comparisons of results from various simulations for typical energy systems (i.e. a solar water heater, a building, a large scale solar heating system with interseasonal storage and a photovoltaic system). Based on the results of each simulation exercise, a scoring system was developed and applied. The best performing TRY was found to be the one produced by a modified Festa-Ratto method.

Evaluation of a multiple regression model for the forecasting of the concentrations of NOx and PM10 in Athens and Helsinki

Forecasting models based on stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) have been developed for Athens and Helsinki. The predictor variables were the hourly concentrations of pollutants (NO, NO(2), NO(x), CO, O(3), PM(2.5) and PM(10)) and the meteorological variables (ambient temperature, wind speed/direction, and relative humidity) and in case of Helsinki also Monin-Obukhov length and mixing height of the present day. The variables to be forecasted are the maximum hourly concentrations of PM(10) and NO(x), and the daily average PM(10) concentrations of the next day. The meteorological pre-processing model MPP-FMI was used for computing the Monin-Obukhov length and the mixing height. The limitations of such statistical models include the persistence of both the meteorological and air quality situation; the model cannot account for rapid changes (on a temporal scale of hours or less than a day) that are commonly associated, e.g., with meteorological fronts, or episodes of a long-range transport origin. We have selected the input data for the model from one urban background and one urban traffic station both in Athens and Helsinki, in 2005. We have used various statistical evaluation parameters to analyze the performance of the models, and inter-compared the performance of the predictions for both cities. Forecasts from the MLR model were also compared to those from an Artificial Neural Network model (ANN) to investigate, if there are substantial gains that might justify the additional computational effort. The best predictor variables for both cities were the concentrations of NO(x) and PM(10) during the evening hours as well as wind speed, and the Monin-Obukhov length. In Athens, the index of agreement (IA) for NO(x) ranged from 0.77 to 0.84 and from 0.69 to 0.72, in the warm and cold periods of the year. In Helsinki, the corresponding values of IA ranged from 0.32 to 0.82 and from 0.67 to 0.86 for the warm and cold periods. In case of Helsinki the model accuracy was expectedly better on the average, when Monin-Obukhov length and mixing height were included as predictor variables. The models provide better forecasts of the daily average concentration, compared with the maximum hourly concentration for PM(10). The results derived by the ANN model where only slightly better than the ones derived by the MLR methodology. The results therefore suggest that the MLR methodology is a useful and fairly accurate tool for regulatory purposes.

Analysis of climatological and air quality observations from Greater Athens Area

Abstract In this paper, the climatological and air quality observations obtained for the periods 1974–1990 and 1983–1990, respectively, in the Greater Athens Area, are analyzed. During this period, 80 air pollution episodes, which lasted 210 d in total, were detected. The analysis of the observations allows the interpretation of air quality characteristics in terms of the climatological and meteorological factors. The importance of some characteristic indices for air pollutant dispersion conditions, such as mixing height, ventilation coefficient, temperature at 850 hPa, and temperature inversions, is discussed. The results show that the air quality in the Athens Basin is strongly affected by the meteorological conditions, especially those which are in favor of local circulations. The worst air pollution episodes are associated with anticyclonic conditions and/or advection of warm air masses.

Generation of a typical meteorological year for Nicosia, Cyprus

The present study is concerned with the generation of a Typical Meterological Year for Nicosia, Cyprus. The above tool will be useful for the prediction and comparison of the performance and cost effectiveness of passive and active solar systems in the island. The Typical Meteorological Year was generated from available hourly meteorological data recorded during the period 1986–1992, using the Filkenstein-Schafer statistical method.

Forecasting hourly PM 10 concentration in Cyprus through artificial neural networks and multiple regression models: implications to local environmental management

In the present work, two types of artificial neural network (NN) models using the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and the radial basis function (RBF) techniques, as well as a model based on principal component regression analysis (PCRA), are employed to forecast hourly PM10 concentrations in four urban areas (Larnaca, Limassol, Nicosia and Paphos) in Cyprus. The model development is based on a variety of meteorological and pollutant parameters corresponding to the 2-year period between July 2006 and June 2008, and the model evaluation is achieved through the use of a series of well-established evaluation instruments and methodologies. The evaluation reveals that the MLP NN models display the best forecasting performance with R2 values ranging between 0.65 and 0.76, whereas the RBF NNs and the PCRA models reveal a rather weak performance with R2 values between 0.37-0.43 and 0.33-0.38, respectively. The derived MLP models are also used to forecast Saharan dust episodes with remarkable success (probability of detection ranging between 0.68 and 0.71). On the whole, the analysis shows that the models introduced here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used on an operational basis.

Modeling of photochemical pollution in Athens, Greece. Application of the RAMS-CALGRID modeling system

Abstract The causes of the poor air quality in Athens, Greece during the severe episode of 25–26 May 1990 has been studied, using a prognostic model (RAMS) and a three-dimensional Eulerian air quality model (CALGRID). The modeling effort indicates that the main urban area of Athens exhibited high concentrations of nitrogen oxides, the main sources of which are automobiles, while the NNE suburban area exhibited high ozone concentrations, the product of photochemical activity of the primary pollutants that were transported by the sea-breeze. The application of the models also demonstrated the need for an accurate emission inventory for improved predictions of the pollutant concentrations. It was also found that a 50% reduction of the nitrogen oxide emissions will increase the ozone levels in the downtown area substantially.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of the relationship between air quality status and mesoscale circulation over an urban Mediterranean basin

The objective of this study is to identify and establish the day-by-day relationship between mesoscale circulation and the air quality status over the Metropolitan area of Athens for a period of 13 years and to further investigate its temporal and spatial variability. Eleven distinct mesoscale patterns are identified using a formulated methodology based on surface wind measurements. The air quality conditions are classified into seven distinct classes according to . the method of the Air Quality Indicators for five main pollutants namely, O , NO , SO , CO and black smoke BS . 32 2 It was found that severe and bad air quality conditions over specific parts of the examined area are associated with the weak mesoscale patterns of southern direction or calm conditions. The good and moderate conditions are established mainly under northerly airflows. The most serious pollution problem favored even by intense northerly flow is attributed to O during the warm period in the northern zone. High concentrations of O , NO and SO in 3 32 2 the warm period are remarkably related to the pure sea breeze circulation, especially in the central and northern zone. Q 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Does the presence of desert dust modify the effect of PM10 on mortality in Athens, Greece?

Recent reports investigate whether windblown desert dust may exacerbate the short-term health effects associated with particulate pollution in urban centers. We have tested this hypothesis by using daily air pollution and mortality data for Athens, Greece during the period 2001-2006. We investigated the effects of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <0μg/m(3) (PM(10)) on total and cause specific mortality, during days with and without windblown desert dust, for all ages, stratified by age groups and by sex. We identified 141 dust days between 2001 and 2006. We used Poisson regression models with penalized splines to control for possible confounding by season, meteorology, day of the week and holiday effect. A 10μg/m(3) increase in PM(10) was associated with a 0.71% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42% to 0.99%) increase in all deaths. The effects for total and cause specific mortality were greater for those ≥ 75years of age, while for total mortality higher effects were observed among females. The main effect of desert dust days and its interaction with PM(10) concentrations were significant in all cases except for respiratory mortality and cardiovascular mortality among those < 75years. The negative interaction pointed towards lower particle effects on mortality during dust events. We found evidence of modification of the adverse health effects of PM(10) on mortality in Athens, Greece with desert dust events: the particle effects were significantly higher during non-desert dust days. Our analyses indicate that traffic related particles, which prevail on non-desert dust days, have more toxic effects than the ones originating from long-range transport, such as Sahara dust.

Forest Fire Risk Analysis

ABSTRACT Southern Europe suffers from forest fires. The management of these disasters is of importance to both government authorities and the public. This article presents the results of a research project aimed at modeling forest fire events and producing fire risk maps. The mathematical model is embedded in an ArcView Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. The interface is in Visual C++ 6.0. The thematic and individual risk maps generated are merged into an integrated risk map. The assessment platform (model, GIS, data, decision support) was applied to the area of northern Evia Island, central Greece, using five different scenarios. The platform provides a tool for use by authorities to estimate risks for forest fire management. The model was specifically adapted for the Olympic Games of 2004, Athens, Greece.