Pavlos S. Kanaroglou

A review and evaluation of intraurban air pollution exposure models

The development of models to assess air pollution exposures within cities for assignment to subjects in health studies has been identified as a priority area for future research. This paper reviews models for assessing intraurban exposure under six classes, including: (i) proximity-based assessments, (ii) statistical interpolation, (iii) land use regression models, (iv) line dispersion models, (v) integrated emission-meteorological models, and (vi) hybrid models combining personal or household exposure monitoring with one of the preceding methods. We enrich this review of the modelling procedures and results with applied examples from Hamilton, Canada. In addition, we qualitatively evaluate the models based on key criteria important to health effects assessment research. Hybrid models appear well suited to overcoming the problem of achieving population representative samples while understanding the role of exposure variation at the individual level. Remote sensing and activity–space analysis will complement refinements in pre-existing methods, and with expected advances, the field of exposure assessment may help to reduce scientific uncertainties that now impede policy intervention aimed at protecting public health.

Urban Form, Energy and the Environment: A Review of Issues, Evidence and Policy:

The spatial configuration of cities and its relationship to the urban environment has recently been the subject of empirical, theoretical and policy research. Because of the disciplines involved, relevant articles are scattered over a large number of journals. The objective of this paper is to put the issues in perspective by reviewing the basic concepts and relationships involved, and to evaluate critically the current state of knowledge about urban form, energy utilisation and the environment. The scope of the paper is limited to urban transport energy use and the associated emissions. Suggestions for further progress in the field are offered, with emphasis placed on integrated urban models as useful and policy-sensitive analytical tools.

A GIS - environmental justice analysis of particulate air pollution in Hamilton, Canada

The authors address two research questions: (1) Are populations with lower socioeconomic status, compared with people of higher socioeconomic status, more likely to be exposed to higher levels of particulate air pollution in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada? (2) How sensitive is the association between levels of particulate air pollution and socioeconomic status to specification of exposure estimates or statistical models? Total suspended particulate (TSP) data from the twenty-three monitoring stations in Hamilton (1985–94) were interpolated with a universal kriging procedure to develop an estimate of likely pollution values across the city based on annual geometric means and extreme events. Comparing the highest with the lowest exposure zones, the interpolated surfaces showed more than a twofold increase in TSP concentrations and more than a twentyfold difference in the probability of exposure to extreme events. Exposure estimates were related to socioeconomic and demographic data from census tract areas by using ordinary least squares and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models. Control for spatial autocorrelation in the SAR models allowed for tests of how robust specific socioeconomic variables were for predicting pollution exposure. Dwelling values were significantly and negatively associated with pollution exposure, a result robust to the method of statistical analysis. Low income and unemployment were also significant predictors of exposure, although results varied depending on the method of analysis. Relatively minor changes in the statistical models altered the significant variables. This result emphasizes the value of geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial statistical techniques in modelling exposure. The result also shows the importance of taking spatial autocorrelation into account in future justice – health studies.

Dynamic Model of Peak Period Traffic Congestion with Elastic Arrival Rates

This paper develops a dynamic model of peak period traffic congestion that considers a limited number of bottlenecks. The model predicts the temporal distribution of traffic volumes with an elastic demand model. The choice of route and mode are dependent on travel times and costs. The choice of departure time is based on the tradeoff between travel time and schedule delay. Delays at bottlenecks are modelled with a deterministic queueing model that determines waiting times. This model is used to perform simulation experiments to analyze the impacts of alternative pricing policies and preferential treatment of High Occupancy Vehicles.

Modeling the Intraurban Variability of Ambient Traffic Pollution in Toronto, Canada

The objective of this paper is to model determinants of intraurban variation in ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in Toronto, Canada, with a land use regression (LUR) model. Although researchers have conducted similar studies in Europe, this work represents the first attempt in a North American setting to characterize variation in traffic pollution through the LUR method. NO2 samples were collected over 2 wk using duplicate two-sided Ogawa passive diffusion samplers at 95 locations across Toronto. Independent variables employed in subsequent regression models as predictors of NO2 were derived by the Arc 8 geographic information system (GIS). Some 85 indicators of land use, traffic, population density, and physical geography were tested. The final regression model yielded a coefficient of determination (R2) of .69. For the traffic variables, density of 24-h traffic counts and road measures display positive associations. For the land use variables, industrial land use and counts of dwellings within 2000 m of the monitoring location were positively associated with NO2. Locations up to 1500 m downwind of major expressways had elevated NO2 levels. The results suggest that a good predictive surface can be derived for North American cities with the LUR method. The predictive maps from the LUR appear to capture small-area variation in NO2 concentrations. These small-area variations in traffic pollution are probably important to the exposure experience of the population and may detect health effects that would have gone unnoticed with other exposure estimates.

Do socioeconomic characteristics modify the short term association between air pollution and mortality? Evidence from a zonal time series in Hamilton, Canada.

Study objective: To assess the short term association between air pollution and mortality in different zones of an industrial city. An intra-urban study design is used to test the hypothesis that socioeconomic characteristics modify the acute health effects of ambient air pollution exposure. Design: The City of Hamilton, Canada, was divided into five zones based on proximity to fixed site air pollution monitors. Within each zone, daily counts of non-trauma mortality and air pollution estimates were combined. Generalised linear models (GLMs) were used to test mortality associations with sulphur dioxide (SO2) and with particulate air pollution measured by the coefficient of haze (CoH). Main results: Increased mortality was associated with air pollution exposure in a citywide model and in intra-urban zones with lower socioeconomic characteristics. Low educational attainment and high manufacturing employment in the zones significantly and positively modified the acute mortality effects of air pollution exposure. Discussion: Three possible explanations are proposed for the observed effect modification by education and manufacturing: (1) those in manufacturing receive higher workplace exposures that combine with ambient exposures to produce larger health effects; (2) persons with lower education are less mobile and experience less exposure measurement error, which reduces bias toward the null; or (3) manufacturing and education proxy for many social variables representing material deprivation, and poor material conditions increase susceptibility to health risks from air pollution.

AN ACTIVITY-EPISODE GENERATION MODEL THAT CAPTURES INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HOUSEHOLD HEADS: DEVELOPMENT AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract In this paper, we develop an approach for modeling the daily number of non-work, out-of-home activity episodes for household heads that incorporates in its framework both interactions between such members and activity setting (i.e. independent and joint activities). Trivariate ordered probit models are estimated for the heads of three household types – couple, non-worker; couple, one-worker; and couple, two-worker households – using data from a trip diary survey that was conducted in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) during 1987. Significant interactions between household heads are found. Moreover, the nature of these interactions is shown to vary by household type implying that decision-making structures and, more generally, household dynamics also vary by household type. In terms of predictive ability, the models incorporating interactions are found to predict more accurately than models excluding interactions. The empirical findings emphasize the importance of incorporating interactions between household members in activity-based forecasting models.

Elderly Mobility: Demographic and Spatial Analysis of Trip Making in the Hamilton CMA, Canada

Recent interest in the urban transport challenges posed by the demographic outlook of ageing societies has prompted a growing body of scholarship on the subject. The focus of this paper is on the topic of elderly trip generation and the development of models to help formalise some important relationships between trip-making behaviour and personal, household and contextual variables (such as location). The case study is the Hamilton Metropolitan Area-an important functional component of Greater Toronto, itself one of the regions in Canada where the impact of ageing is expected to be most strongly felt. Using data from Torontos Transport Tomorrow Survey and mixed ordered probit models, the study investigates the question of spatial and demographic variability in trip-making behaviour. The results support the proposition that trip-making propensity decreases with age. However, it is also found that this behaviour is not spatially homogeneous and in fact exhibits a large degree of variability-a finding that highlights both the challenges of planning transport for the elderly and the potential of spatial analytical approaches to improve transport modelling practice.

Impacts of commuting efficiency on congestion and emissions: case of the Hamilton CMA, Canada

Abstract This study uses IMULATE (Integrated Model of Urban LAnd use, Transportation, energy and Emissions) to examine the impacts of commuting efficiency on congestion and automobile emissions—specifically, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides—in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area. Estimates of these externalities are compared for two commuting scenarios: a base scenario of estimated commuting flows for 1991 and an optimal scenario in which the mean commuting time for all workers is minimized. The findings indicate that significant reductions in congestion and automobile emissions are possible by advocating policies that encourage greater commuting efficiency in the locational choices of workers. The analysis of jobs–housing balance as one such means suggests that a considerable proportion of commuting cannot be explained by geographical imbalances in the distributions of jobs and housing, and that workers consider many factors besides commuting costs in their locational choices. It is concluded that policies promoting jobs–housing balance as the principal strategy for facilitating more efficient commuting may not meet the expectations of policy-makers.

A Land Use Regression Model for Predicting Ambient Concentrations of Nitrogen Dioxide in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

Abstract This paper reports on the development of a land use regression (LUR) model for predicting the intraurban variation of traffic-related air pollution in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, an industrial city at the western end of Lake Ontario. Although land use regression has been increasingly used to characterize exposure gradients within cities, research to date has yet to test whether this method can produce reliable estimates in an industrialized location. Ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2)were measured for a 2-week period in October 2002 at >100 locations across the city and subsequently at 30 of these locations in May 2004 to assess seasonal effects. Predictor variables were derived for land use types, transportation, demography, and physical geography using geographic information systems. The LUR model explained 76% of the variation in NO2. Traffic density, proximity to a highway, and industrial land use were all positively correlated with NO2 concentrations, whereas open land use and distance from the lake were negatively correlated with NO2. Locations downwind of a major highway resulted in higher NO2 levels. Cross-validation of the results confirmed model stability over different seasons. Our findings demonstrate that land use regression can effectively predict NO2 variation at the intra-urban scale in an industrial setting. Models predicting exposure within smaller areas may lead to improved detection of health effects in epidemiologic studies.