Pedram Rowhani

Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production

In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964–2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9–10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8–11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space.

Land‐cover change and vegetation dynamics across Africa

Using improved metrics and recently available MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data, we examined the magnitude, extent, and nature of changes in photosynthetic activity and its timing across Sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in overall vegetation activity and shifts in its timing have considerable implications for a variety of processes including surface-atmosphere energy exchanges, terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon, the contribution of local evapotranspiration to the water cycle, disturbance regimes such as fires and pests, and the food security of societies using these ecosystems. While previous studies have examined broad-scale trends in phenology or provided more detailed estimates of land-cover conversion in the tropics, less is known of the year-to-year dynamics of vegetation. Here we quantified the overall changes in vegetation activity for each year between 2000 and 2004 and examined the proportion linked to differences in phenology and overall photosynthetic activity. In addition, we examined the nature of these changes in terms of frequency and duration, the proportion per ecosystem, identified areas of intensive change, and discuss the potential consequences of these changes. We found that most interannual change was not from shifts in timing or phenology, but rather largely due to differences in the amount of annual photosynthetic activity. In fact, there was as much as a 5% annual difference in vegetation activity across the continent. The changes were likely climate driven with particular vegetation types most susceptible to interannual change with high spatial and temporal variability found across the continent.

Variability in energy influences avian distribution patterns across the USA

Habitat transformations and climate change are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss. Understanding the factors responsible for the unequal distribution of species richness is a major challenge in ecology. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to measure species richness and a change metric extracted from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), we examined the influence of energy variability on the geographic distribution of avian richness across the conterminous U.S. and in the different ecoregions, while controlling for energy availability. The analysis compared three groups of birds: all species, Neotropical migrants, and permanent residents. We found that interannual variability in available energy explained more than half of the observed variation in bird richness in some ecoregions. In particular, energy variability is an important factor in explaining the patterns of overall bird richness and of permanent residents, in addition to energy availability. Our results showed a decrease in species richness with increasing energy variability and decreasing energy availability, suggesting that more species are found in more stable and more productive environments. However, not all ecoregions followed this pattern. The exceptions might reflect other biological factors and environmental conditions. With more ecoclimatic variability predicted for the future, this study provides insight into how energy variability influences the geographical patterns of species richness.

Global interannual variability in terrestrial ecosystems: sources and spatial distribution using MODIS-derived vegetation indices, social and biophysical factors

Variations in global vegetation activity were measured at a global scale, from 2000 to 2006, based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) extracted from the 1km resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Interannual variations in phenology and/or in annual integrated vegetation index are mapped using change metrics. The relationships between interannual variability and climate, ecosystem disturbances and land use are also examined. Around 14% of the study area experienced high interannual variability in land surface attributes over the six years. The ecosystems most subjected to large fluctuations in surface conditions were the boreal ecosystems, temperate ecozones, and subtropical and tropical steppes. These changes were largely related to rainfall variability and were associated with mean annual rainfall, agriculture, fire regimes and population density. Large population concentrations were mostly found in more stable ecozones. Rainfall and natural fire regimes explained more than half of the land surface variability in Australia. An additional global analysis on trends in vegetation activity also shows that around 4.5% of the vegetated surface of the Earth, excluding deserts and frequently cloudy regions, experienced a continuous decrease in vegetation activity over the six years. This represents more than twice the area experiencing a greening trend over this time period and concerns mostly tropical, subtropical and temperate forest ecozones. The total change in vegetation activity at a global scale and per year amounted to –2% of the annual integrated EVI aggregated across all ecosystems of the study area, on average for the years 2001–2006.

Climate and land-use effects on interannual fAPAR variability from MODIS 250 m Data

The goals of this research were to examine the effects of climate, land-use, and plot-level characteristics on interannual change of vegetation characteristics. Using mixed-effects regression models, we examined the influences of climatic limiting factors and plot-level characteristics on annual fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) estimates from MODIS 250 m resolution data across agricultural and restored prairie plots in Iowa. Prairie plots had significantly higher annual fAPAR and less year-to-year variability than highly intensive agriculture. Comparisons between fixed and random effects models show that differential climate responses between land-use types explain approximately 85 percent of between pixel differences. Year-to-year climate differences and pixel scale land-use factors explained approximately 48 percent of agriculture within-plot trends and interannual variability and 54 percent of prairie year-to-year variance. Agriculture responses were predominantly influenced by precipitation and prairies were primarily influenced by incident radiation and age since restoration.

Local species assemblages are influenced more by past than current dissimilarities in photosynthetic activity

Most land on Earth has been changed by humans and past changes of land can have lasting influences on current species assemblages. Yet few globally representative studies explicitly consider such influences even though auxiliary data, such as from remote sensing, are readily available. Time series of satellite-derived data have been commonly used to quantify differences in land-surface attributes such as vegetation cover, which will among other things be influenced by anthropogenic land conversions and modifications. Here we quantify differences in current and past (up to five years before sampling) vegetation cover, and assess whether such differences differentially influence taxonomic and functional groups of species assemblages between spatial pairs of sites. Specifically, we correlated between-site dissimilarity in photosynthetic activity of vegetation (the Enhanced Vegetation Index) with the corresponding dissimilarity in local species assemblage composition from a global database using a common metric for both, the Bray-Curtis index. We found that dissimilarity in species assemblage composition was on average more influenced by dissimilarity in past than current photosynthetic activity, and that the influence of past dissimilarity increased when longer time periods were considered. Responses to past dissimilarity in photosynthetic activity also differed among taxonomic groups (plants, invertebrates, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), with reptiles being among the most influenced by more dissimilar past photosynthetic activity. Furthermore, we found that assemblages dominated by smaller and more vegetation-dependent species tended to be more influenced by dissimilarity in past photosynthetic activity than prey-dependent species. Overall, our results have implications for studies that investigate species responses to current environmental changes and highlight the importance of past changes continuing to influence local species assemblage composition. We demonstrate how local species assemblages and satellite-derived data can be linked and provide suggestions for future studies on how to assess the influence of past environmental changes on biodiversity.