Pedro E. Martínez-Alfaro

Vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources: A modelling-based approach to the Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain

The semiarid Mancha Occidental aquifer represents a paradigmatic case of intensive groundwater use for agriculture. Irrigation has proven a catalyst for welfare in the area over the last three decades, if at a significant environmental cost and while raising concerns as to its mid-term sustainability. This paper describes an interdisciplinary exercise of scenario design and modelling, providing a methodology to couple hard-science numerical modelling approaches with the involvement of key water actors. Given the long-standing conflicts in the area, modelling work largely focuses on carrying out a vulnerability assessment rather than on trying to find solutions. The systems most resilient aspects and its drivers for change are identified, while their potential implications for aquifer sustainability are assessed under the light of the mandatory objectives established by the European Union Water Framework Directive for all Member States. Whereas modelling results imply that such objectives are unlikely to be met, a vulnerability assessment suggests that even adverse scenario pumping patterns could be sustained in the mid- to long-term (two to four decades).

Comparative reflections on the use of modelling tools in conflictive water management settings: The Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain

Participatory methods provide an increasingly accepted path to integrated assessment. This paper reflects on the role of two participatory modelling initiatives implemented in a highly conflictive setting: the Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain. The methodologies are described within the context of the case study, examining their potential relevance to integrated assessment from a conceptual standpoint. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are analysed in absolute and relative terms, attending to the different stages of the modelling process. The focus then shifts to explore the implications of this work within the context of participatory integrated assessment and scenario analysis. This serves the purpose of establishing the reasons why the tools have been useful in the eyes of stakeholders, and how the case-specific findings of this project may be relevant to other settings.