Pedro Luiz Borges Chaffe

Flood hazard mapping in Southern Brazil: a combination of flow frequency analysis and the HAND model

ABSTRACT The Itajaí River basin is one of the areas most affected by flood-related disasters in Brazil. Flood hazard maps based on digital elevation models (DEM) are an important alternative in the absence of detailed hydrological data and for application in large areas. We developed a flood hazard mapping methodology by combining flow frequency analysis with the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model – f2HAND – and applied it in three municipalities in the Itajaí River basin. The f2HAND performance was evaluated through comparison with observed 2011 flood extent maps. Model performance and sensitivity were tested for different DEM resolutions, return periods and streamflow data from stations located upstream and downstream on the main river. The flood hazard mapping with our combined approach matched 92% of the 2011 flood event. We found that the f2HAND model has low sensitivity to DEM resolution and high sensitivity to area threshold of channel initiation.

The influence of the interception process on the precipitation quality in a catchment covered by subtropical Atlantic Forest

The interception process is responsible for the spatial and temporal redistribution of the precipitation that reaches the ground. The contact of the precipitation with the canopy influences on the water quality, increasing the concentration of various nutrients in the throughfall (Tf) and stemflow (Sf). The objective of this study was to assess the influence of the interception process on the precipitation quality in a catchment covered by Mixed Ombrophilous Forest. The precipitation (P) monitoring consisted of two rain gauges installed outside the basin. Six gauges were installed within the basin for Tf monitoring. The Sf monitoring was conducted in nine trees. Water sampled at all points was analyzed for color, conductivity, pH, turbidity, and total dissolved solids. The concentrations of Nitrate (NO3-), Chloride (Cl-), Phosphate (PO43-), Sulfate (SO42-), Acetate (CH3CO2-) and Calcium (Ca2+) ions were measured in five points, i.e., one precipitation, two throughfall and two stemflow. Measured precipitation, throughfall and stemflow during the period were 652.1 mm, 584.5 mm (89,6% P) and 2.6 mm (0,4% P), respectively. Total interception loss was 65 mm, corresponding to 10% of the total precipitation. The highest values of the physicochemical parameters were found in the Sf and the Tf. The pH was lower in the Sf, and it decreases with the diameter at breast height. There was no significant relationship between the physicochemical parameters and the canopy cover fraction. The analysis shows the significant difference in the water quality of the precipitation that reaches the ground after being intercepted.

Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change

Abstract Many of the Japanese regions subject to seasonal snow cover are characterized by low elevations and relatively high winter temperatures. A small change in winter temperatures could render many of these areas susceptible to snow cover change and consequently affect water resources management. This paper describes a climatological approach combined with an AGCM output to identify the regions and main river basins most sensitive to snow cover change in the case of climate change in Japan. It was found that a 1°C rise in temperature during the winter season could increase the snow-free area of Japan by 6%. The snow cover of Tohoku region and Mogami and Agano river basins was found to be the most sensitive to climate change. The AGCM output for a future scenario presents a reduction in total snowfall and an earlier peak in snowmelt for all regions. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Chaffe, P.L.B, Takara, K, Yamashiki, Y, Apip, Luo, P., Silva, R.V., and Nakakita, E., 2013. Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1718–1728.

The Role of Land Cover in the Propagation of Rainfall Into Streamflow Trends

The replacement of natural forests with agriculture is generally associated with modifications in the hydrological behavior of a basin. This is particularly notable in the tropics and subtropics. Southern Brazil is a region with extensive agricultural production, forest conservation, and a vast unexplored streamflow data despite substantial rainfall trends observed in recent decades. In this work, we explore trends in the streamflow regime in the majority of the monitored basins in Southern Brazil. Additionally, we evaluate if pristine forested basins and agricultural nonforested basins have significantly different streamflow responses to changes in rainfall. We analyzed annual averages, maxima, minima, and seasonality of a 36-year data set (1975–2010) of 675 rainfall and 140 streamflow gauges. Results reveal that large trends are widespread in Southern Brazil, especially in basins with areas smaller than 10,000 km. Changes in the rainfall regime did not directly translate into changes in the streamflow regime. Changes in the annual maximum flow of forested basins were not statistically significant even when the annual average and maximum rainfall increased significantly. Correlations between changes in rainfall and streamflow for two indices, namely, duration of low-magnitude events and seasonality, were statistically significant (p < 0.05) only for agricultural basins. The results indicate a higher propagation of hydrological changes through anthropogenically modified systems, providing evidence that agricultural basins are more sensitive to changes in the rainfall regime.

Extending the Applicability of the Generalized Likelihood Function for Zero‐Inflated Data Series

Proper uncertainty estimation for data series with a high proportion of zero and near zero observations has been a challenge in hydrologic studies. This technical note proposes a modification to the Generalized Likelihood function that accounts for zero inflation of the error distribution (ZI-GL). We compare the performance of the proposed ZI-GL with the original Generalized Likelihood function using the entire data series (GL) and by simply suppressing zero observations (GLy>0). These approaches were applied to two interception modeling examples characterized by data series with a significant number of zeros. The ZI-GL produced better uncertainty ranges than the GL as measured by the precision, reliability and volumetric bias metrics. The comparison between ZI-GL and GLy>0 highlights the need for further improvement in the treatment of residuals from near zero simulations when a linear heteroscedastic error model is considered. Aside from the interception modeling examples illustrated herein, the proposed ZI-GL may be useful for other hydrologic studies, such as for the modeling of the runoff generation in hillslopes and ephemeral catchments.

Nonstationarity in maximum annual daily streamflow series from Southern Brazil

Extreme streamflow values estimates are important for flood risk assessment and also for the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The behavior of this hydrological variable is under climate and land use changes effects and river’s course modifications caused by construction and operation of large reservoirs. The assumption of stationarity commonly adopted in flood frequency and magnitude analysis studies is questionable under such circumstances. In this work we identified nonstationary annual maximum streamflow series corresponding to fluviometric gauges located in Southern Brazil. A nonstationary frequency model was applied to those series and the results were compared with those of a stationary model. We also evaluated the presence of abrupt changes in the series. The results indicate that 75 of 157 series of Southern Brazil may be considered nonstationary, most of which are in the Iguazu, the Paranapanema and the Uruguay basins. For a planning horizon equal to 10 years, the return period of the present 100 years flood changes to 48-75 years when considering the nonstationary model, respectively. Abrupt changes were identified mainly as occurring in the 70’s.

Desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta computacional de análise de hidrogramas

Este trabalho trata da elaboracao de uma ferramenta computacional para extracao de coeficientes caracteristicos de bacias hidrograficas a partir de analises de hidrogramas. As aplicacoes desta ferramenta sao destinadas a: realizar de separacao de escoamentos por filtros numericos; determinacao do inicio e fim de periodos de ascensao e recessao com a utilizacao de metodos de aproximacao diferencial; criacao de Curva Mestra de Recessao (MRC) pela sobreposicao de multiplas curvas de recessao e extracao dos coeficientes da MRC para caracterizar bacias hidrograficas.